Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

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whathome said:
....you can't say that anymore:

Old price €400,000


New price €390,000
www.daft.ie/118303

There have been numerous examples shown on this thread previously.
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lads, I stand corrected :)

i best get home to my 3-bed semi and start panicking ...

a lot of it relates to area (spur of the moment personal opinion). Lucan has no real public transport access to town (i notice someone mentioned 100 houses in lucan reduced ...). these areas will alwasy be the first ones to start cutting price, versus say a 3 bed in Clonsilla, or even donabate. I read elsewhere on the board today about Finglas also having the same trouble.
I looked in lucan when we bought 3 years ago, and couldn't believe the place was so badly serviced.
 
Calina said:
People will continue buying in the short to medium term for whatever reason - but it is inherently naive to assume that they will stop buying altogether just because capital appreciation is off the table.
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of course their will ALWAYS be buyers and sellers, how can a transaction go through without both sides present? And those buyers and sellers will always have a multitude of personal reasons for their actions. A market is made up of all sorts of people with all sorts of motivations for doing what they do.

But prices are set at the margin, it is the marginal transaction that sets prices, the very next transaction happening right now. This is absolutely key to how prices are set, and I believe people simply don’t understand this.

Ergo my view: Marginal demand for buying property is driven overwhelming by postive sentiment about future prices, NOT by yields, NOT by the vast majority people who are non-participants, and NOT by your need to fit a piano, and NOT by my need to have a pool table. MOST transactions going through right now this very instant are happening because…. Drum rolll,,, ta-da… “prices keep going up”. Thats it, thats the nub of issue, that's why most transactions are happening. Most marginal demand is because property because "prices are going up". And that Herald headline/story is putting a stake through the heart of the very reason for the existence of those transactions.

When you take out THOSE "prices only go up" transactions, what's left? Enough remaining demand to mop up 100k units a year? Enough remaining demand to meet the wall of sellers coming down the pipe?
 
You're missing the point. You said there was no reason to buy. I pointed out that there were always reasons to buy and not all of them were financial.

Your last post is irrelevant in that respect because what is not at issue between us is the likely direction of property prices. Read back through my posts and you will know this. The number of buyers will plummet, but it won't reach zero. And it will not happen overnight.
 
paddyd said:
lads, I stand corrected :)

these areas will alwasy be the first ones to start cutting price, versus say a 3 bed in Clonsilla, or even donabate.
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Clonsilla - what about this one ... :

New price €360,000
[broken link removed]=

75 Ferndale (2nd in the list) - Old price €370,000
 
soma said:
Anyone else starting to think that the housing market is in league with the devil..? *lol*
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I can prove this. I can back it up with irrefutable evidence .......but...........
I would have to kill you
 
CelloPoint said:
Normal markets yo-yo, bubble markets don't - they crash. Housing bubbles have occured all over the world on many an occasion. They crash literally over night - never underestimate the speed of sentiment change.


If you had of said this to me last June or July, I would have had respect for you. The fact that there is a headline on today's Herald (and negative articles in last weekend's Sindo) shows that it is too late. The plebs are always last to "read all about it".


People are indeed stupid, but they're not that stupid (i.e. if people were given even half the facts discussed here on AAM, I'd say nobody would buy in 2006). People are perhaps deceived - and it's getting harder and harder to keep up the deception.
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ppl will buy when they think the market has bottomed out...

problem is finding when the market bottoms out.

eg:
I want to buy something cheap, but what value do i consider cheap, say 250k, but someone else consdiers it cheap at 252k...and buy before me, i get worried and jump back in thinking i have saved, say 50k if it has fallen from 300k...other follow suit, but as market floods, others see prices drop even further south.

this is especially the case in illquid mrkts.

take oil for example, heading south of 60 a barrell....but lots locked in future prices at over 60 a barrell...as they thought prices wouldn't drop.

exact same theory at play here...

perception of value and balls to take a punt on it, how else do ppl make money on a dropping mrkt...going short...when do you buy back..

and if you can't go short, you jump back in at time x...which can be at the bottom, or only have where there.!
 
Surely a crucial aspect of the current (red-hot!) property situation is that houses have long ceased to be regarded as homes. Some posters seem to think now that the market is collapsing the 'old values' will reassert. Unfortunately there is no possibility of a return to pre-speculation innocence. The spiralling-down will be as dizzying as the spiralling-up.

In my place of work today (I'm in England) a colleague mentioned her son (in his early 20's, fresh from university business studies followed by a years world-travel) has just moved to Dublin to take up his first job (he proposes training in accountancy). She wanted my advice as a Dubliner. Son staying in B&B for past few weeks as "he is not prepared to live out in the sticks with a long commute to work" and "will hold out in B&B as long as necessary as he can't afford the extortionate rents being asked in central Dublin". I enquired what he considered an "extortionate" rent. That turns out to be
 
sorry - fingerslip! "Extortionate" rent is considered to be Euro400 per month for a house-share, for which this intelligent welltravelled young man expects a one-bed apartment. Just thought I would throw this anecdote into the pot. There are - as Calina says - many other contributory factors to house-prices and rental prices. As Duplex informs us, those factors are global and Ireland is now a very very 'porous' and open economy.
 
Marie said:
sorry - fingerslip! "Extortionate" rent is considered to be Euro400 per month for a house-share, for which this intelligent welltravelled young man expects a one-bed apartment. Just thought I would throw this anecdote into the pot. There are - as Calina says - many other contributory factors to house-prices and rental prices. As Duplex informs us, those factors are global and Ireland is now a very very 'porous' and open economy.
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He should have moved to Frankfurt:)
 
The Herald story is a massive blow to "property interests" and to amateur landlords. This thread's petrol tank just keeps getting refilled. IMO the smart money is long gone.

Just to keep the irish economy ticking along takes minimum of 500 million in new mortgage borrowing every week. Investors having been borrowing north of 200 million a week as part of above. Slowdown is not an option.

IMO we are along way from cheap - cheap will not arrive until 2010. The Japanese were equally as feverish about property yet when their bubble burst 0% interest rates could not entice consumers to buy property at 50% below peak nor could it save a number of their big banks folding.

There is loads of choice on homes - we have never had more ...... even in good areas where every back garden has added a new house.
 
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paddyd said:
lads, I stand corrected :)

i best get home to my 3-bed semi and start panicking ...

a lot of it relates to area (spur of the moment personal opinion). Lucan has no real public transport access to town (i notice someone mentioned 100 houses in lucan reduced ...). these areas will alwasy be the first ones to start cutting price, versus say a 3 bed in Clonsilla, or even donabate. I read elsewhere on the board today about Finglas also having the same trouble.
I looked in lucan when we bought 3 years ago, and couldn't believe the place was so badly serviced.
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i love reading the sterotypical head in sand replies like this. he says i dont see any evidence of price drops so it aint happening , then when given evidence he rationlises it with the above LOL

that would have been me talking about finglas today and finglas is an INCREDIBLY well serviced and established area , close to m50 , 2 (soon to be 3) large shopping centres , all required amenties within 5-10 mins walk , about 20mins on a regular bus into town with QBC's to boot , PERFECT place to buy a place in one of the new estates that have been springing up but it doesnt seem like people want to buy the 2 properties i mentioned


baby_tooth said:
eg:
I want to buy something cheap, but what value do i consider cheap, say 250k, but someone else consdiers it cheap at 252k...and buy before me, i get worried and jump back in thinking i have saved, say 50k if it has fallen from 300k...other follow suit, but as market floods, others see prices drop even further south.
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indeed will be interesting to see the severity of the first dead cat bounce whenever it materialises
 
There may not be a dead cat bounce if circumstances are too stretched by interest rates, fuel prices etc.
 
well fuel prices i dont think will affect things greatly given that a weakening US economy has already reduced demand for oil to the extent it's dropped below €60 a barrell , which is great on the forecourts i may add my local tesco is €1.02 a litre happy days :)
 
miju said:
well fuel prices i dont think will affect things greatly given that a weakening US economy has already reduced demand for oil to the extent it's dropped below €60 a barrell , which is great on the forecourts i may add my local tesco is €1.02 a litre happy days :)
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Yeah but esb and gas will be going up substantially as are most expenses for young homeowning couples in ireland today.
 
Duplex said:
He should have moved to Frankfurt:)
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Exactly! A classy apartment like this for Euro380 per month in Frankfurt or share an anonymous box on a mega-estate with 3 strangers at the end of a 2 hours-each-way-each-day commute for Euro 800 p.m. People are getting more and more clued-up and expectations are changing.

The wider picture is that there is also a new wariness and weariness around resources both personal and natural. There is an embryonic but fast-growing attitude which is utilitarian and conserving, values balance and moderation........completely at odds with the philosophy of acquisition, individualisation and conspicuous consumption which reached a peak in the year 2000 - at the millenium. Historically and anthropologically millenia have been moments of dramatic change. It may be we are observing part of such a process.
 
The Irish became rich by building too many apartments without provisions for the elderly or for children. No one who bought them as a BTL thinks they will be living in the things in thier 80's. No one thinks that their grandchildren will never have a garden or a playground, and that four children and two adults will share these 550sqft hell holes in 'exclusive developments for young professionals.' Buildings last longer than investments. These monuments of greed will haunt us long into the future. Let's face it, todays apartments are tomorrows flats.
 
Marie said:
Exactly! A classy apartment like this for Euro380 per month in Frankfurt or share an anonymous box on a mega-estate with 3 strangers at the end of a 2 hours-each-way-each-day commute for Euro 800 p.m. People are getting more and more clued-up and expectations are changing.

The wider picture is that there is also a new wariness and weariness around resources both personal and natural. There is an embryonic but fast-growing attitude which is utilitarian and conserving, values balance and moderation........completely at odds with the philosophy of acquisition, individualisation and conspicuous consumption which reached a peak in the year 2000 - at the millenium. Historically and anthropologically millenia have been moments of dramatic change. It may be we are observing part of such a process.
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A highly respected economics professor once told me that if you learned only one thing about the functioning of the macro economy is was this: Everything is cyclical.

As sure as night follows day, this property boom will encounter its bust. And this is one massive boom.
 
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