Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

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ivuernis said:
First of all I am bearish, always have been, although recently my bearishness has not been as acute as previously (but thats another topic).

However, the current media analysis of late (e.g. Indo, Herald) smacks of opportunism on the part of these publications. We've seen the shoddy research from the Indo's point of view with them lifting quotes or misreading stats from this forum and presenting them as general sentiment or facts. I just think they are jumping the gun on this one right now.
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I don’t think so. The whole edifice is held up by the general positive, bullish sentiment towards property prices. Take that away and what’s left? The economics stopped adding up ages ago, I mean look at the farcical “Worth the Investment” articles in the Thursday IT. And for good or for bad, the Heralds headline today is an absolute corker.
 
Anyone actually read the Herald article? Would be interested to know what they are basing the story on?
 
walk2dewater said:
I don’t think so. The whole edifice is held up by the general positive, bullish sentiment towards property prices. Take that away and what’s left? The economics stopped adding up ages ago, I mean look at the farcical “Worth the Investment” articles in the Thursday IT. And for good or for bad, the Heralds headline today is an absolute corker.
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I haven't read the article from the Herald but I bet the general tone of it is far less dramitic than the headline.
 
ivuernis said:
I haven't read the article from the Herald but I bet the general tone of it is far less dramitic than the headline.
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Read it. All I can say is it wasn't proof read by a real estate agent spinmeister
:)
 
I guess the Hearld article is bourne out of the sheer volume of property(panic selling?) that have come on the market for the new property season (Sept 1st), coupled with the inability of any of these houses to sell (only 15% of auctions got a sale).

the outcome is naturally going to be "HOUSE BOOM OVER" articles. This time however, they could be right.
just remember to distinguish the 'boom over' talk from the 'PRICE DROP' talk. Prices may not fall, they might just stop rising

wonder if the Economist has a 'told you so' article this month, after mis-firing for 5 years!!!!
 
paddyd said:
just remember to distinguish the 'boom over' talk from the 'PRICE DROP' talk.
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There is no difference :)

Prices are going up because prices are going up and everyone believes prices will continue to go up ad infinitum. The economics of buying stack up ONLY if you believe prices are going up. When prices stop going up there will no reason to buy anymore.
 
walk2dewater said:
When prices stop going up there will no reason to buy anymore.
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Strictly speaking, that's only true if your motivation in buying is to make money.

Me, I'm not interested in losing money, or bankrupting myself, but neither am I interested in making a killing. If prices are stable or sliding somewhat, then other motivational factors such as wanting to hang my pictures on the wall, not wanting to live with fruitcake flatmates, being able to choose my own furniture etc start to take on more importance than "how rich will this make me".

What I suspect will happen is instead of hearing the "You have to get your foot on the ladder" platitude, people will be hearing "you'd be mad to buy now, sure property is on the way down"...line

The thing is, people have not really been using their intelligence in considering whether they want to buy a property or not. Me, if I come across a nice three bedroomed house that I can afford and which suits my needs, then I should buy it because I can fit a piano in it, or it has a garden that I can work on, or it's 10 minutes from work or whatever, and I plan to stay in it long term, then yes, I have a reason to buy it. Despite best efforts, not all houses are identical just yet.

The problem is, many people's reason to buy property in the past four or five years has been less utilitarian and more "making a killing". The utility reasons will continue to exist, as do issues surrounding the rental market in Ireland which makes it attractive not to rent long term.
 
Calina said:
Strictly speaking, that's only true if your motivation in buying is to make money.

Me, I'm not interested in losing money, or bankrupting myself, but neither am I interested in making a killing. If prices are stable or sliding somewhat, then other motivational factors such as wanting to hang my pictures on the wall, not wanting to live with fruitcake flatmates, being able to choose my own furniture etc start to take on more importance than "how rich will this make me".

What I suspect will happen is instead of hearing the "You have to get your foot on the ladder" platitude, people will be hearing "you'd be mad to buy now, sure property is on the way down"...line

The thing is, people have not really been using their intelligence in considering whether they want to buy a property or not. Me, if I come across a nice three bedroomed house that I can afford and which suits my needs, then I should buy it because I can fit a piano in it, or it has a garden that I can work on, or it's 10 minutes from work or whatever, and I plan to stay in it long term, then yes, I have a reason to buy it. Despite best efforts, not all houses are identical just yet.

The problem is, many people's reason to buy property in the past four or five years has been less utilitarian and more "making a killing". The utility reasons will continue to exist, as do issues surrounding the rental market in Ireland which makes it attractive not to rent long term.
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Investors are/were buying approx 40% of properties every year, when they see prices not rising and they will have to subsidise their "investments" from now on without the capital appreciation that every recent investor seems to be relying on, they will head for the exits and the market will fall lower and lower.
 
ivuernis said:
I'll try to pick it up on the way home later.
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Think you maybe too late. The housing interests saw the headline and panicked. They have organised a kidnap of a banker with a one million euro ransom and the heralds later editions have had to drop the original headline (it was on the front page wasn't it?)
 
bearishbull said:
Investors are/were buying approx 40% of properties every year, when they see prices not rising and they will have to subsidise their "investments" from now on without the capital appreciation that every recent investor seems to be relying on, they will head for the exits and the market will fall lower and lower.
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Add the PD's idea of abolishing stamp duty to the mix, this season is going to be very quiet.

EDIT:
The FTB's will pause for thought.
 
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bearishbull said:
Investors are/were buying approx 40% of properties every year, when they see prices not rising and they will have to subsidise their "investments" from now on without the capital appreciation that every recent investor seems to be relying on, they will head for the exits and the market will fall lower and lower.
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Sure it will. It does also still mean that people considering buying houses to live in will still have considerations. They may wait but their reasoning will not be solely based on financial loss/profit considerations.
 
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