article will probably still be in it somewhere though.
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article will probably still be in it somewhere though.
Nowhere near as powerful as on the front page IMHO, with all the associated mini-posters that the herald puts around town when it's on sale.
There is no difference
Prices are going up because prices are going up and everyone believes prices will continue to go up ad infinitum. The economics of buying stack up ONLY if you believe prices are going up. When prices stop going up there will no reason to buy anymore.
somebody put it very well here yesterday when they said we are seeing "a deceleration in the rate of acceleration of house prices"
the only price drops have been mere fat-trimming on the high-end houses. I've yet to see evidence of a price drop on a 3-bed semi. I still think houses will continue to rise at least in line with inflation. So the boom is over, but its not a price drop.
bearishbull
Registered User
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Even banks are saying prices will slow to 3% next year , that below inflation and will be a drop in real terms.
If the headline is right then what a feeble, fragile and inflated boom it's turning out to be.
Interest rates are still only at 3% !!
It's like in a cartoon where some nasty little creature casts a shadow making him appear much bigger and stronger than he actually is !
Interest rates are still only at 3% !!
It's like in a cartoon where some nasty little creature casts a shadow making him appear much bigger and stronger than he actually is !
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phoenix_n
Guest
Thats where you are wrong my friend.
If everyone was sitting in their own houses then whatever price their house is now will not bother them. But there is so much money tied in investment properties that without capital appreciation they are now in possessoin of a loss-making asset. And when someone wants to sell and no-one wants to buy the only way to entice that buyer is by dropping their price. And those that have made the most of the property market are the ones that can drop their prices the most first thus increasing pressure on 'late comers' to the market.
IMO.
(phoenix_n : first person to have called a 'crash'.)
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walk2dewater
Guest
Prices are set on the margin. The future is what's happening in the States. So here's what we have to look forward to: An ever increasing horde of fearful sellers meeting an ever shrinking pool of skittish buyers. Whaddya thinks gonna happen?
Favorite part about this article was the quote at the end from the DNG economist saying that house prices had gone up by 2.4% in Q3 2006. Yet again, the ridiculous statistical analysis used by the estate agents being trotted out as the real deal. DNG, like SFG, get their in-house agents to go around to a bunch of houses that they sold years ago and estimate how much they would go for today. Not sales data, mortgage data or CSO data but "what do you think we'd get for that one Jim?"
Yet this is reported as fact in the MSM.
"the only price drops have been mere fat-trimming on the high-end houses. I've yet to see evidence of a price drop on a 3-bed semi. I still think houses will continue to rise at least in line with inflation. So the boom is over, but its not a price drop."
Paddy d - This is just untrue - Prices already dropping in West Dublin especially - 3 bed semis in Lucan,Blanch area were 400-420 before summer , 370 -381 today. Over 100 three bed properties in Lucan alone..................
Paddy d - This is just untrue - Prices already dropping in West Dublin especially - 3 bed semis in Lucan,Blanch area were 400-420 before summer , 370 -381 today. Over 100 three bed properties in Lucan alone..................
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walk2dewater
Guest
The BS of the real estate spinmeisters is coming apart quicker than I imagined. Batten down the hatches!
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Guest126
Guest
Phoenix_n: the only person that tipped an apartment (I can't remember where in Dublin) with an asking price of about €450k would be selling for €170k before Christmas.
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baby_tooth
Guest
no, your way to early on this.
markets don't plummet, they yo-yo up or down to a new plateau..the less liquid, the longer it takes.
not a swallow does a summer make...time left for fools still to be aprted from their money...
the mentallity still exists that property doesn't drop, not in Ireland.
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walk2dewater
Guest
Absolutely true. But the jagged 'slope of hope' starts with one almightly down-draft.
and this mentality has just got it's first violent hammering courtesy of todays Herald
But, what happens if you come across 4 or 5 of these houses that match your criteria? Would you be willing to jump in and buy if the asking price kept getting chipped away on some of these properties?
Would it annoy you to find out later that a new neighbour buys the same house for a good bit less than you?
Michael McDowell stating that he is going to reform Stamp Duty has muddied things further. With capital appreciation out of the picture it might make it worth your while to wait until next December's budget before commiting.
Throw rising interest rates, negative press about the property market into the bag and it turns into a horrible mix. There are more factors in place now to stop FTBs than there are to actually encourage them to buy!
Well I won't be buying just yet - my point is that you cannot and should not assume that everyone has the same motivation in buying and that therefore everyone is affected to the same extent by a Herald headline. People will continue buying in the short to medium term for whatever reason - but it is inherently naive to assume that they will stop buying altogether just because capital appreciation is off the table.
I must confess that I'm disappointed by debate in this respect. The "It's all over" attitude is not much less simplistic than the "It'll keep on rising because it hasn't fallen yet" attitude of the bull brigade.
Personally, no it wouldn't annoy me if I found out that someone had bought for less than I had - this is life - triumphalism is not something I buy into. What I do - and have constantly - object to is the idea that I should buy some property inappropriate to my needs just in case I can't afford something down the line. If I am buying appropriate to my needs...then that's different.
if, on the other hand, I do have a choice of houses to buy - then the sellers will have to compete for my attention. That's okay too.
....you can't say that anymore:
Old price €400,000
New price €390,000
www.daft.ie/118303
There have been numerous examples shown on this thread previously.
CelloPoint
Registered User
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- 75
Normal markets yo-yo, bubble markets don't - they crash. Housing bubbles have occured all over the world on many an occasion. They crash literally over night - never underestimate the speed of sentiment change.
If you had of said this to me last June or July, I would have had respect for you. The fact that there is a headline on today's Herald (and negative articles in last weekend's Sindo) shows that it is too late. The plebs are always last to "read all about it".
People are indeed stupid, but they're not that stupid (i.e. if people were given even half the facts discussed here on AAM, I'd say nobody would buy in 2006). People are perhaps deceived - and it's getting harder and harder to keep up the deception.
I agree with you that there will always be people in the need of a property regardless of the circumstances. Not everyone will stop buying altogether but I don't see how there will remain that strong a demand over the near-to-medium term at least.
In the last few years the market has been held up almost entirely due to the belief in rising prices. Investors were willing to fund loss making investments because of capital appreciation. FTBs were jumping into anything they could afford to get a foot on the ladder before their savings got whittled down to nothing. Trader-uppers were holding onto previous properties as a "pension", distorting the true demand for housing further.
A public acknowledgment that this is not going to be happening into the future is going to remove a huge amount of the demand.
John Kenneth Galbraith "A Short History of Financial Euphoria":
Galbraith mentions two types of seller at a market top, in the quote.
The first, those who have been 'riding the upward wave' i.e. the smart money. The second 'Those who who thought that the increase would be forever' I think we are seeing the smart money leave now (see auction clearance rates). The second group will take longer to absorb and digest that the speculative episode is over. Then the apportioning of blame.
Galbraith mentions two types of seller at a market top, in the quote.
The first, those who have been 'riding the upward wave' i.e. the smart money. The second 'Those who who thought that the increase would be forever' I think we are seeing the smart money leave now (see auction clearance rates). The second group will take longer to absorb and digest that the speculative episode is over. Then the apportioning of blame.
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