Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

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Doris said:
The Irish became rich by building too many apartments without provisions for the elderly or for children. No one who bought them as a BTL thinks they will be living in the things in thier 80's. No one thinks that their grandchildren will never have a garden or a playground, and that four children and two adults will share these 550sqft hell holes in 'exclusive developments for young professionals.' Buildings last longer than investments. These monuments of greed will haunt us long into the future. Let's face it, todays apartments are tomorrows flats.
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Look there will be always young and middle aged people to fill these apartments , theres plenty of room in this country for everyone who wants a house with a garden etc at a reasonable price to have one. There has to be higher densities in cities and high density is'nt necessarily bad.
 
Dublin does benefit from higher density, the problem isn't the density or indeed that perennial red herring high -rise/ height, it is the provision of useful Public space. The Docklands is a classic example. While the buildings look new and not everyone has moved in, things are great. Workers in the offices during the day, a lively night life for apartment dwellers in the evening. But that's not how I see it panning out. Young couples will have one child and then two, Someone will move a family or ten students in to get a better rent, this idealised separate existence of the young professionals, is as big a myth as the number of true professionals. The social glue of considerate behaviour isn't strong enough in Ireland. The modern living experiment where the young and beautiful trip the light fantastic will be eaten away by low-grade-continuous-anti-social behaviour. The nouveau riche have a strong sense of entitlement. "I paid half a million euros for this apartment, I'll hang my drying on the balcony/play awful music with the windows open/ park where I want."
 
miju said:
i love reading the sterotypical head in sand replies like this. he says i dont see any evidence of price drops so it aint happening , then when given evidence he rationlises it with the above LOL
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bit harsh. You know nothing about me. Its called an opinion (we're allowed then here you know :D). believe me, its not head in the sand, far from it. I'm an investor, and am still feeling more than comfortable; but then again I'm not buying right now; haven't for the past 6months, and not advising it, until we see what happens to the for few months of the new property season.

You are another one of those idle commentators thats just hoping it all goes t*ts up; the 'i told you so' gang. You've waited 6 years, I guess its time to give you some press.
 
A lot will hinge on the number of new hse STARTS (rather than completions) next year.
If it drops, it suggests the builders are controlling a soft landing (why build houses on valuable land if they will be harder to sell).
If the figure increases, then things could really become a problem.
 
paddyd said:
bit harsh. You know nothing about me. Its called an opinion (we're allowed then here you know :D). believe me, its not head in the sand, far from it. I'm an investor, and am still feeling more than comfortable; but then again I'm not buying right now; haven't for the past 6months, and not advising it, until we see what happens to the for few months of the new property season.
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Would you mind sharing with us at what levels you would consider buying again in Ireland - e.g. yield at purchase / %age of monthly costs [interest, expenses etc.] which the rent will have to cover?
 
There has been a reduction in the number of bookings in major crane higher firms. There has also been an increase in working hours on sites. Foreign labourers are being held onto because of good performance and skill while home grown are still pitching for better deals. Builders have the chance to really speed things up if they want to.
 
paddyd said:
A lot will hinge on the number of new hse STARTS (rather than completions) next year.
If it drops, it suggests the builders are controlling a soft landing (why build houses on valuable land if they will be harder to sell).
If the figure increases, then things could really become a problem.
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I had a look for this figure yesterday but couldn't find a regular up to date source of them? Any ideas? Couldn't find them on cso.ie or anything.
 
paddyd said:
A lot will hinge on the number of new hse STARTS (rather than completions) next year.
If it drops, it suggests the builders are controlling a soft landing (why build houses on valuable land if they will be harder to sell).
If the figure increases, then things could really become a problem.
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See this would have been a wise strategy for people to heed in 2002. We're far, far beyond that now, I'm afraid. May as well get out the popcorn at this stage. Nyeh.
 
Neffa said:
Would you mind sharing with us at what levels you would consider buying again in Ireland - e.g. yield at purchase / %age of monthly costs [interest, expenses etc.] which the rent will have to cover?
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I'm not sure I would!
It now takes a BIG wad of cash to pay the top off the cost of an investment property (maybe something like 1-200k), and in effect force the figures to add up.

the problem is that the investment market has been surviving on capital appreciation to supplement rent to cover mortgage repayment costs (interest only mortgages normally).
so a 350k 2-bed apartment costs maybe 1800 to service the mortgage p.m. and the rental income is about 1400 p.m maybe. Thats 17k per year, or about 1% rental yield. Most countries on earth can beat that yield (even Budapest is 6% right now). Now do the same for a guy who invested in a 500k apartment in the past year, and the problem is amplified. Ony the investors who were in before mid-2005 can probably feel confortable right about now, as they still have a healthy buffer of capital appreciation, and are even protected from a drop.

Now that the interest rates have rose, it changes the interest only investor mortgages completely; coupled with the now obvious downward trend in the market, the investors can no longer rely on appreciation alone to justify it, and the amateur investor cashes out. The problem is that perhaps everyone has the same idea :)
 
paddyd said:
You are another one of those idle commentators thats just hoping it all goes t*ts up; the 'i told you so' gang. You've waited 6 years, I guess its time to give you some press.
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Well he only has to be right once - you have to be right all the time! But that's the risk that an investor must take on board I guess.
 
JayDub said:
The above house is now quoted at €381,000...
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http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=118303&search=1

How much would a des res like that rent for?

IMO the utility value of that property cannot be more than 95K. Usually I think of the bubble in purely macro economic terms rather than focussing on individual properties but out of interest can I invite you all to take a look at that property: What would you pay for it assuming prices were going to rise in line with inflation and interest was going to be say 1.5% in real terms, i.e. you are buying the house to live in with no potential for capital gain or loss.
 
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JayDub said:
The above house is now quoted at €381,000...
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Nearly every 3 bed semi in lucan is going to gravitate down towards 381k. Now some "canny" vendor is going to have to make his property sell by making it stand out. A lick of paint won't do it, a new attic conversion, nope. Decking out the back, nahh. Perhaps a new kitchen. However a tried a trusted way of getting your property to stand out, is with its price. These houses will have to go down to at least 350k.
 
paddyd said:
A lot will hinge on the number of new hse STARTS (rather than completions) next year.
If it drops, it suggests the builders are controlling a soft landing (why build houses on valuable land if they will be harder to sell).
If the figure increases, then things could really become a problem.
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If the new starts drops we are in trouble too. This will lead to a recession in the building industry. There will be too many workers so they will start cutting their labour rates, so prices will be eroded. The immigrants will arrive with no work available so they will have to leave again.
 
plaudit said:
If the new starts drops we are in trouble too. This will lead to a recession in the building industry. There will be too many workers so they will start cutting their labour rates, so prices will be eroded. The immigrants will arrive with no work available so they will have to leave again.
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It's not just construction immigrants that might be heading home

The Irish Independent also reports that the 400 Polish workers at Dell's Limerick factory will be facilitated if they want to relocate back to the company's €200m new plant in Lodz, which is expected to open at the end of this year.
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finfacts
 
paddyd said:
so a 350k 2-bed apartment costs maybe 1800 to service the mortgage p.m. and the rental income is about 1400 p.m maybe. Thats 17k per year, or about 1% rental yield.
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Don't know where you are getting the 1% from. Looks a lot closer to 5% to me.
 
paddyd said:
A lot will hinge on the number of new hse STARTS (rather than completions) next year.
If it drops, it suggests the builders are controlling a soft landing (why build houses on valuable land if they will be harder to sell).
If the figure increases, then things could really become a problem.
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the land is only of value if the value can be realised.

If the builder has the land but ppl don't want houses its not much use to him is it?
 
plaudit said:
If the new starts drops we are in trouble too. This will lead to a recession in the building industry. There will be too many workers so they will start cutting their labour rates, so prices will be eroded. The immigrants will arrive with no work available so they will have to leave again.
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The extent of the domino effect will be crucial. The first domino is inflation beating house price appreciation, if that falls I'm afraid that we are likely to see a knock on to building, retail, leisure, and financial services (the parts of the economy that have provided growth over the past few years). When these sectors get squeezed guest workers will leave these shores, resulting in another tranche of housing supply coming to the market. More worryingly, this scenario is likely to pan out over the first couple of years of a global slowdown. Pretty grim I'm afraid.
 
baby_tooth said:
the land is only of value if the value can be realised.

If the builder has the land but ppl don't want houses its not much use to him is it?
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The builder has two options - sit on the land until the market levels out or build and sell asap.
If the builder paid a lot of money for the land they may want to build and try to sell on the way down to at least cover costs rather than sit on a decreasing asset, not knowing when the market will level out and how much less the land will be worth then.
Also if they are short of cash, waiting may not be an option.
R
 
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