Why is Bitcoin "digital gold" crashing right now?

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And once again you don't like the answer so this os the reaction we get from you.

Tecate, there was no answer, I am left pondering your stance. It feels a little like groundhog day again and you have started a cycle of posting articles without reading and reflecting them. I hope you can provide your thoughts on the article you posted per my question in post 595, but I hold my breath.

As you are a self styled proponent of BTC, it would be good to see your take / prediction on this latest development. What area of BTC do you think it will benefit the most?
 
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How does it make BTC more obtainable for the everyday person. This is a step in providing easier access to retail investors but is it actually helping the adoption of BTC?
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This undoubtely will be the true to test to whether adoption of BTC will happen, so I am interested to see the outcome.
If you're defining 'actual adoption' as transactions like people buying coffee with crypto. That'll be the last step not the next one. Paypal won't make a difference. Bitcoin (or any current crypto) can't support that kind of adoption anyway as it will be hindered by the transaction limit. The lightning network or some other layer is necessary so that each individual transaction is not needed on the blockchain. This may happen in the future, but it's not close.

The adoption that is happening is people buying it as a store of value. This is a list of the public companies and other institutions that now own bitcoin https://bitcointreasuries.org/

It used to be an empty list, now it's a very small list, but they own 3.74% of the total supply. how far are we into institutional adoption? is this 3.75% the peak for these type of organizations?

As of today Saylor is already 60m in the green, on paper. I'm sure todays volatility is worrying him deeply.
 
Tecate, there was no answer, I am left pondering your stance.
I've answered and responded accordingly thereafter. As mentioned before, you don't like the answers that you're getting as they don't fit your world view. Maybe I should just let you write them for me.
I hope you can provide your thoughts on the article you posted per my question in post 595, but I hold my breath.
Keep your panties on - I'm getting to it. I do have the odd thing to take care of in between times.

What are your thoughts? The questions I would ask, who does this benefit? How does it make BTC more obtainable for the everyday person. This is a step in providing easier access to retail investors but is it actually helping the adoption of BTC?
My thoughts are that it's not a panacea (no one such move implicating crypto is). However, it's a building block that strengthens the emergence of crypto.
In the overall context, it is a further measure in legitimising crypto to the general public. Personally, I can't stand Paypal but that's neither here nor there. Paypal is trusted by 100s of millions of people worldwide. All that ordinary people know about crypto exchanges is that they believe them to be dodgy. The largest crypto exchange has around 35 million customers. Paypal has 350 million active account holders. KYC/AML has been a major point of friction in adoption. That changes here as it allows a whole new swathe of ordinary people to have direct access to crypto without lifting a finger.
I would assume that there will be some form of bid/ask spread when paying with BTC to reduce settlement risk for Paypal.
I expect Paypal to be true to form and that the costs will be Paypal-esque. However, that makes no difference. If you talk to many people that have gotten into this space about the first means by which they obtained crypto, chances are they will tell you that it was a bad deal (in terms of fees/commissions, etc.). They went on to use crypto more and became more discerning in how they bought and sold it. This represents an on/off ramp - and an opportunity to on-board new people into the crypto ecosystem.
Imagine if someone offered to sell you something online - and their deal was so much cheaper than the alternative. However, they insist on crypto payment. If everything you heard about crypto is negative and you've decided you don't need it, you don't understand it, nevermind start to think where or how you'd buy it (or go through KYC/AML to open an account just for this one trade) - you're going to say screw this and run with the more expensive alternative. If you have a paypal account - and you already have access - you trust paypal as you've been with them for years - then its probably still a pain in the ass as you're not used to it - but you'll do it to get the cheaper price.
What area of BTC do you think it will benefit the most?
So as per the explanation above - this is retail-related.
is it actually helping the adoption of BTC?
It's not a panacea in and of itself but it is a very large and significant brick in the wall.

In the immediate shortterm as Tecate refers to me as a non proponent, I have just benefitted ~5% on this news. It is likely a good time to reduce exposure.
I've already explained this to you. I have come across plenty that trade btc/crypto while sledging it every day of the week. If you're trading crypto and that works for you - good for you. But that certainly doesn't make you a 'proponent' of bitcoin.
But then feel free to explain yourself a bit more on that if you wish. I invited you to do that previously. Do you believe that there's anything tangible to invest in (as I've yet to hear a single positive statement on btc from you) or you're smarter than everyone else and you feel you're benefiting from all the stupid people that have put some $ in crypto?

This undoubtedly will be the true to test to whether adoption of BTC will happen, so I am interested to see the outcome.
I didn't need this validation - but it's something that I think is useful to point out to you. With this statement, you're saying that this news has potential significance (which could go either way). It's significant - and that's why I posted about the initial (unconfimed) report to this effect some weeks ago. It's in the same vein, I followed up with other such significant milestones.


Lastly, you asked me to describe what my thoughts were as to how I saw the space play out with regard to bitcoin - going forward. I gave you my best guess (my current guess based on an opinion that is always open to adjustment). I provided you with my thoughts. Given that you've worked on blockchain-related projects, I'd be curious to hear your own view (whether that's about BTC, CBDCs or crypto/blockchain generally). How do you see things developing?
 
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If you're defining 'actual adoption' as transactions like people buying coffee with crypto. That'll be the last step not the next one. Paypal won't make a difference. Bitcoin (or any current crypto) can't support that kind of adoption anyway as it will be hindered by the transaction limit. The lightning network or some other layer is necessary so that each individual transaction is not needed on the blockchain. This may happen in the future, but it's not close.

The adoption that is happening is people buying it as a store of value. This is a list of the public companies and other institutions that now own bitcoin https://bitcointreasuries.org/

It used to be an empty list, now it's a very small list, but they own 3.74% of the total supply. how far are we into institutional adoption? is this 3.75% the peak for these type of organizations?

As of today Saylor is already 60m in the green, on paper. I'm sure todays volatility is worrying him deeply.

The paypal move as I see it has two benefits, the first it helps legitimize BTC, and it benefits existing holders, who now have more options to buy physical goods with BTC (tax benefits).

The use as a store of value is much more interesting, and if ~30 companies can hold 3.74% of BTC and with further institutional adoption, liquidity will dry up. In turn this will grow the non deliverable futures market. If we compare this to Gold, the reserves are held mostly by governments. So we would have a change with BTC reserves held by individuals (Corporations) which creates an entire different set of economics.

I am not really sure what this does for price stability, if most of the BTCs in the world are held in wallets and not circulating.
 
There is a difference between predicting economic outcomes and validating an economic proposition.

Of course, and I wouldn't be so mean-spirited as to expect any economist to predict the day and time of the crash commencing. But the economic proposition of a crash was at least two years, if not more, identifiable in the emergence of a property bubble fueled by over-extending credit. Those that gave warnings were dismissed, excluded from the mainstream.
All the information that was needed was readily available to hand, and let's face it, in mainstream economics and finance, no-one shouted stop!

That aside, comparisons between medics and economists, covid and btc may not be so far apart

- nobody predicted Covid19
- nobody predicted BTC
- Covid numbers are volatile
- BTC price is volatile
- We are waiting for a promised vaccine for Covid
- We are waiting for a promised return to zero for BTC

:)
 
The use as a store of value is much more interesting, and if ~30 companies can hold 3.74% of BTC and with further institutional adoption, liquidity will dry up.
That may be an understatement. since less than 12% of total supply now remains to be mined, and at a rate of less than 1.8% of per year from here onwards.

In turn this will grow the non deliverable futures market.

Maybe, though it's a lot easier to take delivery of BTC than gold, so a much higher proportion of investors may choose to do so, especially if they're buying bitcoin to hedge against systemic problems with paper trading markets.

If we compare this to Gold, the reserves are held mostly by governments. So we would have a change with BTC reserves held by individuals (Corporations) which creates an entire different set of economics.
Speaking of which, I guess the list of governments holding reserves in bitcoin is currently an empty list, will it be become a small list any time soon?

I am not really sure what this does for price stability, if most of the BTCs in the world are held in wallets and not circulating.
Personally I think it will be absolutely terrible for stability, as bitcoin is propelled to the moon with this as the catalyst in the next year or so.
 
Do you believe that there's anything tangible to invest in (as I've yet to hear a single positive statement on btc from you) or you're smarter than everyone else and you feel you're benefiting from all the stupid people that have put some $ in crypto?

In a fledgling market like cryptocurrency, there are opportunities for arbitrage, you rightly point out people get more discerning and savvy as they use it. The exchanges and trading platforms just aren't as advanced or regulated as financial markets, so as somebody who has worked in financial markets for 20 years, I consider myself savvy.


Lastly, you asked me to describe what my thoughts were as to how I saw the space play out with regard to bitcoin - going forward. I gave you my best guess (my current guess based on an opinion that is always open to adjustment). I provided you with my thoughts. Given that you've worked on blockchain-related projects, I'd be curious to hear your own view (whether that's about BTC, CBDCs or crypto/blockchain generally).

Apologies, I must have missed that, so how do you see it play out?

As I have mentioned, the political, economic and cultural issues are as important as the technology itself, so there will be varying adoption across the globe. My first point is I don't believe BTC will be used as a currency, it will become some form of digital store of value, whether that store of value becomes $1 or $50k, I have no clue.

In terms of Blockchain Technology, there are lots of interesting Proof of Concepts being proposed, but currently we aren't seeing a whole lot of adoption, I think the cost of implementation for corporations will out weigh the benefits.

The most interesting area is CBDC and Decentralized Finance. Central Banks have the biggest impact on us day to day, so they have the power to force adoption of digital assets (most money is already digital). I am excited by the concept of programmable money, for example, the stimulus checks for Covid in the US could have been delivered digitally and programmed to be only spent in certain areas of the economy. This gives another tool in the monetary tool box for Central Banks, and also goes towards moving towards a platform economy. It asks important questions around the role of Financial Intermediaries etc.

DeFI, is probably the coolest idea around at the minute and we are seeing lots of people benefit from it, I am working on a project currently in DeFi.
 
In terms of Blockchain Technology, there are lots of interesting Proof of Concepts being proposed, but currently we aren't seeing a whole lot of adoption, I think the cost of implementation for corporations will out weigh the benefits.

Indeed, there was a huge drop in venture capital funding for blockchain projects over the last year or two as the early hype and enthusiasm didn't bear fruit. There was over $4B invested via VCs in 2018, but very little actually making it to market.
 
Indeed, there was a huge drop in venture capital funding for blockchain projects over the last year or two as the early hype and enthusiasm didn't bear fruit. There was over $4B invested via VCs in 2018, but very little actually making it to market.
Could your share your source please?
Thank you
 
Sept. 2017: JPMorgan's Jaime Dimon - "Bitcoin is a fraud and will blow up".
Feb. 2019: JPMorgan launches its own stablecoin.
23 Oct. 2020: JPMorgan in a note to investors - "The potential long-term upside for bitcoin is considerable as it competes more intensely with gold as an 'alternative' currency we believe, given that Millenials would become over time a more important component of investors' universe".
 
Good one, Tecate

Of course we need to bear in mind that back on 2017 the head of cryptos at JPM was just starting out on his CFA journey and is now fully qualified! No point in getting edumecated if your ideas ain't going to change!
 
Sept. 2017: JPMorgan's Jaime Dimon - "Bitcoin is a fraud and will blow up".
Feb. 2019: JPMorgan launches its own stablecoin.
23 Oct. 2020: JPMorgan in a note to investors - "The potential long-term upside for bitcoin is considerable as it competes more intensely with gold as an 'alternative' currency we believe, given that Millenials would become over time a more important component of investors' universe".

Have you got the actual report? Interested in reading.
 
Have you got the actual report? Interested in reading.
As you can see, there's a link to the article by Business Insider (which isn't a crypto publication). There's no sign of the note itself. As something that wasn't destined for broader dispersal, perhaps they can't publish a copy of the actual note itself.

EDIT - This seems to be it -> here.

A couple of other take-aways:

"The market cap of bitcoin would have to rise 10 times from here to match the total private sector investment to gold via ETFs or bars and coins".

"We believe the market value of cryptocurrencies could eventually rise beyond what could be justified by only valuing them as a store of wealth. Cryptocurrencies derive value not only because they serve as stores of wealth but also due to their utility as means of payment."


Back in 2017, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said that he'd "...fire a JPM trader in a second who traded [bitcoin]. Its against the rules, its stupid, its dangerous".
 
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As you can see, there's a link to the article by Business Insider (which isn't a crypto publication). There's no sign of the note itself. As something that wasn't destined for broader dispersal, perhaps they can't publish a copy of the actual note itself.

EDIT - This seems to be it -> here.

A couple of other take-aways:

"The market cap of bitcoin would have to rise 10 times from here to match the total private sector investment to gold via ETFs or bars and coins".

"We believe the market value of cryptocurrencies could eventually rise beyond what could be justified by only valuing them as a store of wealth. Cryptocurrencies derive value not only because they serve as stores of wealth but also due to their utility as means of payment."

That's just an extract, this was a lengthier research piece. Let me see if I can get a copy of it.

It briefly mentions one of my main discussion points, gold reserves are held by central banks whereas bitcoin large holdings are held privately. I'm hopeful Panigirtzoglou will explore this further.

Interesting that he has called out millennials as one of the reasons for the potential long term. This is one of the first articles I've seen consider a social aspect.
 
Interesting that he has called out millennials as one of the reasons for the potential long term. This is one of the first articles I've seen consider a social aspect.
It is interesting - and it seems to make sense. It's difficult for many to get past the idea of a digital currency rather than a physical currency. From millennial down, that demographic is going to be much more comfortable with and accepting of digital currencies. JPMorgan's Panigirtzoglou referred to precisely that notion back in August -> Bloomberg: 'Older Investors Go for Gold, Younger Ones Bitcoin' .
 
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From millenial down, that demographic is going to be much more comfortable with and accepting of digital currencies.

As indeed they were with the dot.com boom and any other fashionable hot air.

You will just have to get burnt to realise that this is all nonsense.

Brendan
 
As indeed they were with the dot.com boom and any other fashionable hot air.
Many got burnt due to over-exuberance in the dot com crash. However, in citing that example Brendan, you've never acknowledged the incredible technology that came out of it or the gains made by those that had backed (or went on to back) technological behemoths such as google, etc.

You will just have to get burnt to realise that this is all nonsense.
I don't have any issue whatsoever with the suggestion of a need for caution. What I do take issue with is the consistent claim that there isn't one single tangible advantage to decentralised cryptocurrency. That doesn't make for a reasonable interpretation of it to my mind.
 
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