Why is Bitcoin "digital gold" crashing right now?

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I don't think any of us expected 2017.
Agreed. My expectation was for that price accumulation to play out over the course of years.

It is only in the last two years through non-technical study. that I have really started to reflect BTC / Blockchain, in terms of social, economic and political contexts. As you rightly point out, I have a bias, but you got it wrong, I am not here to question your faith, I am here to present an alternative view. My personal opinion much of the debate on bitcoin doesn't even ask the right questions. I do have a bias, and in this case, I present a fair view given that I currently would benefit from continued adoption of btc if it meant an appreciation in value.
I understand where you're going with this. However, you have to appreciate the nature of this specific thread. i.e. it starts out from the get go as a comparison with gold - in fulfilling that same store of value use case...and that no less within the context of an 'alternative investments' sub-forum.

Why does the world need BTC as a store of value? Before you jump in with the 'oh it is decentralized, the supply is finite, it can be transferred across boundaries, doesn't need to be stored with a bank'.
Ask yourself, why do we really need it? is it going to change the fact that nearly half the world survive on less than $5.50 a day?
Firstly, I have been living in the developing world over the course of the past 3 years where the vast majority of people live on minimum wage (€210/month). As you've identified, there are many different facets to this. I think this is a separate discussion entirely worthy of its own thread.
In any event, people in the developing world need that store of value more than you or I. There's been much discussion about usd/euro - but when we get into these countries, then that's when you see people being robbed blind by their own governments/government institutions/etc. The guy earning $5.50 a month may not need a store of value so much - but move up from that just a little and people of modest means still have their savings. So if they have their savings in a currency that debases itself within months by 10-15% (it can be much more but i'm using an example from right here), you think that they still dont need a better store of value?
That said, the guy earning $5.50 may well be depending on a sibling/family member abroad to send money home - and he's getting half of what he should because remittance services are robbing people blind. That's moving away from the store of value use case but its relevant to that group of people. Where I'm living, the most popular remittance service takes 10% - and that's just for transfers in the same currency - within the country!
I know of a buddy who's ex girlfriend keeps some savings in his US bank account - because it's illegal to hold USD within the local banking system. She would be on €210/month - and clearly she's doing that because she believes that the government are going to destroy her meagre savings.

Have a look at post #524 and see how far ordinary people will go to try and maintain the little bit of wealth they have. I'm assuming the Indian in question was a migrant trying to get his savings back from Dubai without having the government take 18% of it away. Wealthy people usually don't have to resort to inserting a store of value up their rectums.

This is what I want to bring to the conversation. I think it would benefit you from taking a step back and few some of these points. But alas, you will probably just pick a part each of my sentences, without really asking yourself the questions.
I think its a different conversation albeit a worthy one in its own right. I find myself equally conflicted in that I didn't get involved with bitcoin initially as a speculative asset. That was accidental - albeit that I couldn't possibly ignore it. I believe that there can be two aspects to this. Yes, it's an opportunity for wall street types and others to make $$$ - but I still believe that bitcoin (and decentralised currency generally) have the ability to act as a societal good in so many ways.
 
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No they didn't actually say "keeps". Below is what they did say. I know I have you on the ropes when you resort to such pedantry.
'On the ropes', Dukey?:D In case we have late-comers to this discussion, that should bring them up to speed as to how you're approaching this discussion.
Overall they're still not painting the very same picture as you're contriving to do, Dukey. You realise that bitcoin not being correlated with any other asset is a good thing, right? Other than that, I know from your past scribblings that you think its a mortal sin that bitcoin is not on point first and foremost with a transactional currency use case this very day as opposed to a store of value use case. I think that's plain wrong.
 
@tecate
Whilst we are on metaphor here are a few of your below the belt punches.
I cited one of Mr Saylor's reasons for buying $425m of btc being it having moved sideways over the last 2 years. You twist that into me having a dig at bitcoin.
I referenced the Fidelity take on changing narrative and somehow you interpret this as me through "wishful thinking" erroneously quoting them as using the word "keeps". What is that all about?
I pointed out that the bitcoin marketplace is dominated by small retail investors having a punt. You disingenuously interpret that as me making a morality point when clearly I was pointing out how far bitcoin is from achieving its purpose of being a medium of exchange.
Then, most bizarre of all, you give the example of an Indian gentleman who graphically illustrated that he is most unconvinced that bitcoin is digital gold, and somehow you seem to interpret that as one up for bitcoin. Go figure.
 
You realise that bitcoin not being correlated with any other asset is a good thing, right?
But let's get it in perspective, and not misrepresent its significance. Fidelity point out for example that 3% diversification into bitcoin even at its peak at start of 2018 would have delivered 1% superior performance. Here's how the math works:
Take as numéraire a basket of conventional assets. Then let us start at 1/1/18 with a portfolio of 100 being 97 conventional 3 bitcoin. Bitcoin then falls 2/3ds against the numéraire and the portfolio becomes 98, being 97 conventional 1 bitcoin. It is rebalanced to be 95 conventional 3 bitcoin. Bitcoin then doubles in value versus the numéraire and the portfolio is 101, hey presto! 1% better than a 100% conventional portfolio even though bitcoin has fallen a third against conventional assets.
But this is just a mathematical quirk which would be the exact opposite if the path had been bitcoin beginning with a big jump and then falling back.
Fidelity sort of explain this but they still leave the impression that there is sorcery at play here - even if bitcoin does badly the diversification effect will more than compensate. That is grossly misleading and I am a tad surprised that Fidelity would risk its reputation in this way.
 
@Duke of Marmalade , your penultimate post is laughable and isn't worthy of a response.
As regards your last one, maybe Fidelity might poach you as clearly you can help them protect the 7 trillion they have under management right now.
 
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As regards your last one, maybe Fidelity might poach you as clearly you can help them protect the 7 trillion they have under management right now.
Ah, the cheapest form of wit!
I note that you never concede a point, I am sure the feeling is mutual. But let me try one more time.
A 3% bitcoin diversification would have delivered a 1% superior return from 1/1/18 despite bitcoin having a bad performance over that period. Do you accept that this paradox is not a demonstration of the benefit of diversification, regardless of Fidelity's suggestion that it is.
As a hint bear these points in mind:
Diversification does not enhance performance, it reduces risk, that is generally accepted.
The perversity of the outcome is a mathematical quirk of the rebalancing which would have been the opposite if bitcoin had followed the opposite path.
 
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Ah, the cheapest form of wit!
Wit wasn't the purpose but I won't worry if it is (or it's perceived to be) a by-product in this instance. Based on a couple of years worth of Duke-ism's, I'm not inclined to even get into it with you on this occasion.

I note that you never concede a point
Provide a link to where you acknowledged good facets of bitcoin or decentralised cryptocurrency. I'll acknowledge or cite issues myself with bitcoin or crypto - and I can provide ample links to where I've done exactly that.

But let me try one more time.
What on earth are you going on about, Duke? That's why I was right the first time - you're telling a company that has 7 trillion under management that you know better? Granted they may have skín in the game but they're Fidelity....vs. your track record on this subject? I go back to my original answer. Maybe you can go work for Fidelity and show them the error of their ways. I won't be investing (my time) today (on this nonsense) - I'M OUT. :cool:
 
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Bitcoin has shown signs in the past of being uncorrelated to the conventional markets. We're now seeing Bitcoin being very much correlated to the traditional markets in panic conditions. However, lets see how this plays out over the ti


'On the ropes', Dukey?:D In case we have late-comers to this discussion, that should bring them up to speed as to how you're approaching this discussion.
Overall they're still not painting the very same picture as you're contriving to do, Dukey. You realise that bitcoin not being correlated with any other asset is a good thing, right? Other than that, I know from your past scribblings that you think its a mortal sin that bitcoin is not on point first and foremost with a transactional currency use case this very day as opposed to a store of value use case. I think that's plain wrong.

This sums up the discussion. There is a difference between allowing new information to change previously held beliefs, and simply changing your argument based on new information. For me the points are further discredited by posts 'attacking the person' rather than the point they make. In this case @WolfeTone highlighted a valid point in Fidelitys research, and instead of addressing it the response chose to attack the person.
 
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This sums up the discussion. There is a difference between allowing new information to change previously held beliefs, and simply changing your argument based on new information. For me the points are further discredited by posts 'attacking the person' rather than the point they make. In this case @WolfeTone highlighted a valid point in Fidelitys research, and instead of addressing it the response chose to attack the person.
I didn't engage with WolfeTone on any such thing.
Secondly, this 'criticism' comes from someone who has no problem making accusations based on this thread - when later he comes back and tells us he hasn't read any of it. Even on pointing that out, a normal person would have apologised.
And as regards the poster that you mean't to cite, I have been indulging said poster for three years - and what I've read from said poster is not in any way in line with someone who is interested in an open discussion. Whilst having indulged him over the course of 3 years, I neither have the time nor the inclination to indulge him today - nor is it in any way clear to me what he's rabbiting on about.
The reality is quite the opposite. Taking the main protagonists from the bitcoin-skeptic side of the house, how many of those individuals can link to a previous post where they proclaimed a couple of facets of bitcoin that are positive - including yourself.
 
What on earth are you going on about, Duke?
I don't think folk should quote from reports they don't understand. I was making a fairly basic critique of the Fidelity exhibits but clearly that was way above poor @tecate's head.
Also I personally do not subscribe to the doctrine of the infallibility of the employees of 7trn organisations.
 
I didn't engage with WolfeTone on any such thing.
Secondly, this 'criticism' comes from someone who has no problem making accusations based on this thread - when later he comes back and tells us he hasn't read any of it. Even on pointing that out, a normal person would have apologised.
And as regards the poster that you mean't to cite, I have been indulging said poster for three years - and what I've read from said poster is not in any way in line with someone who is interested in an open discussion. Whilst having indulged him over the course of 3 years, I neither have the time nor the inclination to indulge him today - nor is it in any way clear to me what he's rabbiting on about.
The reality is quite the opposite. Taking the main protagonists from the bitcoin-skeptic side of the house, how many of those individuals can link to a previous post where they proclaimed a couple of facets of bitcoin that are positive - including yourself.

Tecate, I don't profuse to have read in depth the 27 preceding pages, but I have been a long term monitor of yours and Dukes (I meant to reference him) back and forth on the subject. It looks like you agree that you can't have an objective discussion with him. I am not sure why you are seeking an apology? I have pointed out your unrelented backing of Bitcoin, it is fair to say that despite you recognizing the current weaknesses you still firmly believe that they will be resolved? A majority of your posts throughout the thread is on how BTC is changing and adapting and fixing any issues, we don't need to get in the nuanced details.

I will point out that you posted a quote from Fidelity as evidence to support your post, Duke posted a quote from the same article to support his post, but the subsequent posts reads as if that makes him irrational and not worthy a response.

This thread has decayed into delusion.
 
Before either of you go any further, link to a post where either of you recognised facets that are positive in your view(in terms of bitcoin)

Ive said it many times - there's no credibility in anyone presenting and just sledging crypto/btc without a single recognition of any merit in it whatsoever.
In your particular case, as a 'proponent' of btc (not), that should be easy.
As regards responding to his Dukeness, im under no such obligation - last i checked, that decision was mine. That doesn't mean that he 'has me on the ropes'. That statement alone justifies my decision not to engage with him on this occasion.
The suggestion to bring bitcoin into the investment mix doesn't just lie with Fidelity -
There are many bright(er) minds that share that view. I've looked at their rationale and it makes sense to me. Its not awash with anyone's ego.

Your accusation is without merit - and made in ignorance having not even read the thread. How is my backing unrelenting when i have - on numerous occasions - made reference to btc shortcomings? You made a big deal about some of those shortcomings only to find that id brought them up previously.

I don't give a fiddlers what the two of you think - changing your opinions isn't something that interests me.
 
Before either of you go any further, link to a post where either of you recognised facets that are positive in your view(in terms of bitcoin)
Heck how many times have I stated that if bitcoin represented intrinsic value it is an incredible technological achievement. But it is digital boha, all mainstream economists agree.
 
Heck how many times have I stated that if bitcoin represented intrinsic value it is an incredible technological achievement. But it is digital boha, all mainstream economists agree.
How many times? Hardly ever if at all - and the times that you may have gotten close were half hearted as a result of having been called out on it.
Only a couple of hours ago, you couldn't even bring yourself to admit that traveling through borders with btc would be preferable to shoving a kilo of gold up yer posterior. That says it all really.
 
Maybe you can go work for Fidelity and show them the error of their ways.
I took you up on that. I connected with Ria Bhutoria on LinkedIn. Her top academic boast is a pass at Level 2 of the CFA. Hardly Nobel Prize stuff but then you scoff at NP winners, not backed by 7trn$. Anyway this is the comment I posted to her.
“The Duke on LinkedIn” said:
Ria
I have read your note Bitcoin as an Alternative Asset. It explains how it is uncorrelated with other assets and therefore suitable for diversification. Yet the backtesting shows that even being only 1% of a portfolio increases volatility which is the antithesis of diversification. Of course having increased 30 fold over the period it is no surprise that it improves Sharpe ratios but surely the past performance disclaimer should be more than just a footnote.
If a 7trn$ outfit appoints a relatively junior person as Director of Research into Digital Assets do not expect objective treatment.

It occurs to me that you can source my real name my looking up the above comment, I’ve no problem with that.
 
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