US Presidential Election 2024

Trump held a rally in Madison Square Gardens, which turned into a hate fest against Democrats and minorities.
It seems to be back firing though, one of the minorities subjected to racist abuse were Puerto Ricans... the Trump campaign seemed to be unaware of the hundreds of thousands of eligible voters of Puerto Rican ancestry, including in swing states.

Tony Hinchcliffe: Backlash after comedian at Trump rally calls Puerto Rico 'island of garbage'

Republicans join Democrats to condemn Tony Hinchliffe for his comments at the New York event.
www.bbc.com
 
Yep - a friend of mine who's big into betting just sent me the latest Paddy Power odds (Trump 1/2 - Harris 13/9.) I haven't a clue - I'd lose betting on a snail race...but he thinks Trump is now becoming a very clear favourite.

According to the latest Washington Post polling averages, the race is getting tighter slightly favoring Trump...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/interactive/2024/presidential-polling-averages/
What’s changed: With just over a week until Election Day, our polling averages continue to show the presidential race getting closer and closer. Vice President Kamala Harris’s lead in both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin has dropped to one percentage point. She also leads nationally and in Michigan and Nevada. Trump still leads in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.
 
If Harris wins Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania she will win.

If Trump wins Arizona, Georgia & North Carolina he would need another 8 votes, so he must also win Pennsylvania (19) or Wisconsin (10) or Michigan (15).
 
Trump is ranting on social media about dodgy early voting in Pennsylvania... he wouldnt be doing that if they were from Republicans.
Their internal polling on PA must look v bad.
The betting inclined might consider Harris for PA, if you can bet per state outcome.

And if Harris takes PA that is one of her key states on road to victory.
 
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It looks like the Trump team had some justification for their complaints about the early voting in PA...

Judge extends early voting option in a suburban Philadelphia county after Trump's campaign sued

A Pennsylvania judge has sided with Donald Trump’s campaign and agreed to extend an in-person voting option in suburban Philadelphia
abcnews.go.com

HARRISBURG, Pa. -- A Pennsylvania judge on Wednesday sided with Donald Trump's campaign and agreed to extend an in-person voting option in a suburban Philadelphia county where long lines on the final day led to complaints voters were being disenfranchised by an unprepared election office.

Judge Jeffrey Trauger said in a one-page order that Bucks County voters who want to apply for an early mail ballot now have until Friday. The narrowly divided county, which is led by Democrats, is often seen as a political bellwether.

In Bucks County, the Trump campaign lawsuit said people who were in line by Tuesday's 5 p.m. deadline to apply in person for a mail ballot should have been allowed to get a ballot, even after the deadline. However, Bucks County's election office denied voters that right and ordered them to leave, the lawsuit said.

“This is a direct violation of Pennsylvanians’ rights to cast their ballot — and all voters have a right to STAY in line,” the Trump campaign said in a statement.
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
In 2016 William Hill announced their biggest ever political bet £500,000 on Hillary Clinton at 3/10 with 3 weeks to go. The rest is history.
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this time there are large individual bets backing trump though, could history repeat itself. There has only ever been one previous candidate that won 2 terms as president that weren't successive and that was back in the 19th century. Whereas a vice president succeeding an incumbent is not extraordinary
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
Could Trump be right? Joe wants Him to win; why else call his supporters garbage?
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Nah, I'd say Biden was fed up at all the abuse coming at him and his supporters.
He was right, he tripped over his words in getting there, but the garbage on display was at the racist rally in MSG. It wasn't just the racial slurs being thrown at a minorities (and minorities alone), it was the crowd lapping up talk of mass deportations and xenophobic Americans for Americans only.
This is not the party of eg Reagan anymore, who talked of America as a shining city on a hill, where anyone could become American.
 
odyssey06 said:
This is not the party of eg Reagan anymore, who talked of America as a shining city on a hill, where anyone could become American.
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I think any "decent" republican candidate would have stomped home in this election to be honest. The only reason it's so tight is so many are finding it difficult to vote Trump given all his baggage.
 
Firefly said:
I think any "decent" republican candidate would have stomped home in this election to be honest. The only reason it's so tight is so many are finding it difficult to vote Trump given all his baggage.
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I'm not so sure. It would be a totally different race without Trump. Trump brings out voters that may otherwise not turn up, at the same time he loses votes from Reagan Republicans, for want of a better term for them.
The stakes are so high the Dems are playing it safe to a certain extent, and it is hard for them to get their message across over the noise Trump creates. Harris turns up for interviews and press conferences and half the questions are about what Trump has said or done.
That wouldn't happen with a Romney or Haley running.
 
Firefly said:
I think any "decent" republican candidate would have stomped home in this election to be honest. The only reason it's so tight is so many are finding it difficult to vote Trump given all his baggage.
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Any 'decent' (politically not personal) Dem should win in a landslide. It's a damming indictment of the whole party that this is even close.
 
Firefly said:
I think any "decent" republican candidate would have stomped home in this election to be honest. The only reason it's so tight is so many are finding it difficult to vote Trump given all his baggage.
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Yes, and I think any "traditional" Democrat like say Clinton or Carter or a fit Biden (not so sure about Obama) would wipe Donald/Musk off the map. No criticism of Kamala, just that the first coloured woman POTUS will be a swallow for many and not just racist misogynists.
 
There is so much noise from polls, betting... my instinct is that Harris will win, and may even win comfortably.
There are significant groups coming out backing Harris that did not do so last time round, old school Republicans etc.
Early voting seems encouraging for Dems.

That is if all votes cast and counted and certified - it seems like Trump and Republicans, like last time round, will try to play foul and subvert the election result and steal it if they cannot win it at the ballot box. There is a weird rule that in a 'contested' election, it goes to the House of Representatives, where each state delegation gets a vote. And Republicans control more states. That was their plan last time if Pence had gone along with it but he did his duty.
 
odyssey06 said:
There is so much noise from polls, betting... my instinct is that Harris will win, and may even win comfortably.
There are significant groups coming out backing Harris that did not do so last time round, old school Republicans etc.
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Then you have the absolute rubbish about Muslim clerics coming out and backing trump. That has to be a dirty trick campaign or something, maybe they are being paid large sums of money to do this possibly by the Russians who are desperate for a trump win. Trump banning Muslims from certain countries immediately on taking power in 2017 and moving us embassy to Jerusalem could not possibly win him Muslim voters. It's being done to destroy Harris and biden credibility
 
There are persistent rumours one of the reasons so many people leave Trump rallies eg after 30 minutes is that they are paid to attend and get paid when they arrive. So that would not surprise me.
 
Whatever way you look at it this is the most divisive election in my memory and I follow closely here of course, my native NI, UK in general, the US and even France.
NI being the exception to all analysis the notable thing about these other healthy democracies is the voters accept the result. Sure I was disappointed when Heath beat Wilson or when Bush beat Gore, got over it after about 10 minutes. But for the first time I sense that US democracy will fail this "accept the result" test. Well yes, Trump garbage didn't accept the 2020 result and certainly won't accept him losing this time. But if he wins there is going to be a very disgruntled majority (Kamala well odds on to win popular vote) of US voters.
It's not Civil War stuff or anywhere near it but it seems that, whatever administration takes over, half the populace will be totally resentful of it.
 
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