US Presidential Election 2024

[odyssey06]

300m+ people, and these are the two best candidates?

Who were you expecting?
Kamala Harris just went on Fox news for a hostile interview and gave a credible account of herself.
She seems the equal of any current European politician, at EU or national level, or at least playing in the same division.
In California, she was a state prosecutor and then a district attorney.

Trump on the other hand should either be in prison or the nursing home, he is dangerous and unhinged. His VP Vance is an amoral stooge of big money, the kind of lawyer who gives lawyers a bad name and will happily tell any lie with a straight face.

I'm sure there are a lot of good candidates put off by the spotlight, the pressures, the fund raising of the US presidential system, and are happy to stay at Senator or Governor level say. She may not have the Bill Clinton \ Obama \ Reagan "popular touch" but they don't come around every election and Harris seems a credible candidate to me.

 

[Purple]

Who were you expecting?
Kamala Harris just went on Fox news for a hostile interview and gave a credible account of herself.
She seems the equal of any current European politician, or at least playing in the same division.
In California, she was a state prosecutor and then a district attorney.

Trump on the other hand should either be in prison or the nursing home, he is dangerous and unhinged. His VP Vance is an amoral stooge of big money, the kind of lawyer who gives lawyers a bad name and will happily tell any lie with a straight face.

Unfortunately the left wing/ progressive electorate have just as high a proportion of morons as the right wing/ conservative electorate.
If the choice is between god-bothering creationists who think that guns and jebus are the answer and people who think there are 48 genders, plastic should be banned and words and violence are the same thing then it's actually quite hard to make a choice.
Both sides want their version of censorship and neither leaves any room for the middle ground on things like illegal immigration, abortion, guns and "culture wars" issues.
We don't hear about just how nuts some of the progressive politicians and policies are and more than anything else we don't get how bureaucratic and inefficient the US is as policies, laws, licences and rules feed down from the Federal to the State to the Country to the district. Even what we call residents groups can issue fines in the US. People just want less of that.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

Kamala took a risk and agreed to an interview by Fox News. It seems to have backfired as she stumbled and was caught out quite a bit on U-turns. The betting dial hasn't changed much though.

 

[odyssey06]

Kamala took a risk and agreed to an interview by Fox News. It seems to have backfired as she stumbled and was caught out quite a bit on U-turns. The betting dial hasn't changed much though.

Have you actually watched it?
The bits I've seen she handles herself well, and the FOX News panel - generally known for being pro Republican - says she did well

Harold Ford, Jr.: Kamala Harris should be 'pleased' with her performance in interview | Fox News Video

'All-star' panelists Dana Perino, Martha MacCallum and Harold Ford, Jr. react to the vice president's exclusive interview on 'Special Report.'

www.foxnews.com

 

[Purple]

I'm a fan of the line about judging people by the company they keep and with nutters like Robert Kennedy Junior, Christian Fundamentalists and the Far Right supporting Trump I feel comfortable judging him accordingly.

There's a great article in Rolling Stone about a pro-Trump rally at which RFK was the main attraction and whinging windbags like Russel Brand, recently converted to Jebus (just after the sexual abuse allegations), and Jordan Peterson, the once rational voice of common sense opposition to overly woke culture, as the warm up acts.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

Have you actually watched it?
The bits I've seen she handles herself well, and the FOX News panel - generally known for being pro Republican - says she did well

Harold Ford, Jr.: Kamala Harris should be 'pleased' with her performance in interview | Fox News Video

'All-star' panelists Dana Perino, Martha MacCallum and Harold Ford, Jr. react to the vice president's exclusive interview on 'Special Report.'

www.foxnews.com

Glad to hear that. Missed your earlier post. I was only going by the SKY News summary.

 

[odyssey06]

Apparently, there has been a single huge bet (from outside America) of $25 million dollars on Trump... this has shifted the odds in Trump's favour as bookmakers respond to where the money is going. Something to keep in mind also.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

Apparently, there has been a single huge bet (from outside America) of $25 million dollars on Trump... this has shifted the odds in Trump's favour as bookmakers respond to where the money is going. Something to keep in mind also.

Interesting. Though Betfair has somewhat rumbled this traditional dynamic. When a "bet" is done on Betfair it is precisely matched by another punter and becomes history. With a Bookie they could be left with an uncovered liability which would then weigh on the market. Of course liquidity on Betfair is nothing like that - the last diagram shows the biggest bet that can be accommodated is €26k.
In short, I don't think a large bet done with a bookie would have much influence on Betfair.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

Slight correction. Betfair itself can never have an uncovered overhang. But if some bookie is grossly uncovered they will be trying to lay off the bet anywhere including on Betfair.

 

[Salvadore]

Unfortunately the left wing/ progressive electorate have just as high a proportion of morons as the right wing/ conservative electorate.
If the choice is between god-bothering creationists who think that guns and jebus are the answer and people who think there are 48 genders, plastic should be banned and words and violence are the same thing then it's actually quite hard to make a choice.
Both sides want their version of censorship and neither leaves any room for the middle ground on things like illegal immigration, abortion, guns and "culture wars" issues.

Exactly. While we might all like to think Trump supporters are gun-collecting morons, some of the Democrat supporters are equally unpalatable.

It was ever thus. The difference now is that it’s gone tribal with no apparent scope for cross party cooperation leading to some sort of consensus. Republican or Democrat politicians are afraid to convey any willingness to compromise lest it be interpreted as a form of weakness. They have little option to but to row in with their respective nutters and further reinforce the polarisation.

I honestly think the US has eaten itself at this stage and that ita future influence on the geopolitical stage will continue to diminish.

 

[Purple]

Exactly. While we might all like to think Trump supporters are gun-collecting morons, some of the Democrat supporters are equally unpalatable.

It was ever thus. The difference now is that it’s gone tribal with no apparent scope for cross party cooperation leading to some sort of consensus. Republican or Democrat politicians are afraid to convey any willingness to compromise lest it be interpreted as a form of weakness. They have little option to but to row in with their respective nutters and further reinforce the polarisation.

I honestly think the US has eaten itself at this stage and that ita future influence on the geopolitical stage will continue to diminish.

Which is what Putin wanted when Russia started stirring things before Trumps first term. We now have Muslims voting for the guy who wants to ban Muslims and "Liberals" who want to limit free speech.

 

[odyssey06]

This is encouraging for Harris:

According to a new Emerson College poll (10th ranked poll on 538): Conducted between 10/14 and 10/16, 60% of undecided voters who recently in the past week or month decided to vote have indicated they will vote for Kamala Harris, only 36% have indicated they will vote for Donald Trump.

 

[joe sod]

I honestly think the US has eaten itself at this stage and that ita future influence on the geopolitical stage will continue to diminish.

Its influence hasn't really diminished because all the technology we use now has mostly originated in the US. Its the wet dream of the autocrats like Putin , Xi and some of the BRICs that the US is diminishing however I don't see it. Russia is a seriously diminished power under Putin after starting their disastrous invasion, China hasn't recovered from covid and is suffering economic set backs due to de globalisation and western capital moving away due its increasing aggressiveness. The US innovates, China replicates and Europe regulates

 

[Howth Head]

This is encouraging for Harris:

According to a new Emerson College poll (10th ranked poll on 538): Conducted between 10/14 and 10/16, 60% of undecided voters who recently in the past week or month decided to vote have indicated they will vote for Kamala Harris, only 36% have indicated they will vote for Donald Trump.

Well - only 6% of voters fall into that category - so it's 60% and 36% respectively of that 6% of voters

Here's the relevant part of the poll:
.... 6% made up their minds in the past week, and 3% still have not made up their mind....
“Voters who made their decision on who to support over a month ago break for Trump, 52% to 48%, while voters who made up their mind in the last month or week break for Harris, 60% to 36%,” Kimball said. “The three percent of voters who said they could still change their mind currently favor Harris, 48% to 43%.”

October 2024 Tracking National Poll: Harris 49%, Trump 48% - Emerson Polling

53% have a favorable view of Harris, 49% favorable of Trump This week’s Emerson College…Full Release & Results

emersoncollegepolling.com

 

[odyssey06]

Well - only 6% of voters fall into that category - so it's 60% and 36% respectively of that 6% of voters

Here's the relevant part of the poll:
.... 6% made up their minds in the past week, and 3% still have not made up their mind....
“Voters who made their decision on who to support over a month ago break for Trump, 52% to 48%, while voters who made up their mind in the last month or week break for Harris, 60% to 36%,” Kimball said. “The three percent of voters who said they could still change their mind currently favor Harris, 48% to 43%.”

October 2024 Tracking National Poll: Harris 49%, Trump 48% - Emerson Polling

53% have a favorable view of Harris, 49% favorable of Trump This week’s Emerson College…Full Release & Results

emersoncollegepolling.com

Given the tight swing states, those few percentage points could make all the difference, and if only from the last week, likely not factored into the polls.

 

[Purple]

Given the tight swing states, those few percentage points could make all the difference, and if only from the last week, likely not factored into the polls.

The polls in the swing states are what matters. The US is a federal republic so the popular national vote is irrelevant.

 

[Sophrosyne]

Given the tight swing states, those few percentage points could make all the difference, and if only from the last week, likely not factored into the polls.

Yes, the extraordinarily tight swing states polls are a worry for the Democrats as in past elections Trump outperformed his polling margins.

However, I'm an optimist and very likely will be proved wrong, but I think Harris will win.

If she does, it will not be for her economic policies, her oratorical skills or her personal charisma, instead it will be a vote for sanity.

 

[odyssey06]

Yes, the extraordinarily tight swing states polls are a worry for the Democrats as in past elections Trump outperformed his polling margins.

However, I'm an optimist and very likely will be proved wrong, but I think Harris will win.

If she does, it will not be for her economic policies, her oratorical skills or her personal charisma, instead it will be a vote for sanity.

I don't have full confidence in the polls. Some are just garbage Republican planted polls to try to influence the 'poll of polls'.

But even the good faith ones, commentators such as Rory Stewart (former Conservative minister and podcaster) think that pollsters have over-compensated for previous elections where they under-estimated Trump's vote and their sampling etc is now dubious.

One indication - in the Republican primary vote Trump was 20% under his polls. MAGA candidates in the last mid-term elections similarly underperformed their polls.

I think Harris going into the election in a tie or slight lead in polls is probably a good place to be in terms of 'getting out the vote'.
Arguably the 2016 polls showing Hilary Clinton far ahead may have hurt her turnout.

 

[Purple]

I don't have full confidence in the polls. Some are just garbage Republican planted polls to try to influence the 'poll of polls'.

But even the good faith ones, commentators such as Rory Stewart (former Conservative minister and podcaster) think that pollsters have over-compensated for previous elections where they under-estimated Trump's vote and their sampling etc is now dubious.

One indication - in the Republican primary vote Trump was 20% under his polls. MAGA candidates in the last mid-term elections similarly underperformed their polls.

I think Harris going into the election in a tie or slight lead in polls is probably a good place to be in terms of 'getting out the vote'.
Arguably the 2016 polls showing Hilary Clinton far ahead may have hurt her turnout.

We can only hope you're correct. I'm a big fan of Rory Stewart.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

Not looking good. 61%/39%.