US Presidential Election 2024

Duke of Marmalade said:
Whatever way you look at it this is the most divisive election in my memory and I follow closely here of course, my native NI, UK in general the US and even France.
Ni being the exception to all analysis the notable thing about these other healthy democracies is the voters accept the result. Sure I was disappointed when Heath beat Wilson or when Bush beat Gore. But for the first time I sense that US democracy will fail this "accept the result" test. Well yes Trump garbage didn't accept the 2020 result and ceratinly won't accept him losing this time. But if he wins there is going to be a very disgruntled majority (Kamala well odds on to win popular vote) of US voters.
It's not Civil War stuff or anywhere near it but it seems that, whatever administration takes over, half the populace will be totally resentful of it.
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It will be one thing to be disgruntled as such if Trump actually wins on votes, even by electoral college. By rights he should be in prison not contesting elections for his conduct last time out.

It will be another reaction entirely if he succeeds where he failed last time and actually subverts the electoral college vote even though Harris (like Biden last time) wins it fair and square.

I don't think half the populace will be totally resentful if Harris legit wins in that way. I think there will be a vocal minority perhaps larger than 2020 but nowhere near half the populace.
 
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And another thing. I think Trump driving a garbage truck is a mistake (for him). For sure his Garbage supporters will lap it up. But everybody else will see that there is a huge difference between an old man being careless and the very disgusting joke.
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
And another thing. I think Trump driving a garbage truck is a mistake (for him). For sure his Garbage supporters will lap it up. But everybody else will see that there is a huge difference between an old man being careless and the very disgusting joke.
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I actually thought that was one of his better stunts, Trump dressed in a high viz vest in a garbage truck makes him connect with the blue collar worker, very similar to the stuff boris johnson used to do, that was like the trump of 2016 more than anything.
 
I think he will lose the election, only this time D.C. and elsewhere will be ready for his mafiosi, if they materialize at all.

There will be enough indictments to keep him busy for the rest of his natural.

Hopefully, the GOP will engage in essential introspection.

I could be entirely mistaken, of course, but I felt at the time that Trump was wrong-footed when Biden stepped aside in July.

In a sense, he is still competing with Biden. He can't cope with Harris. He can't make anything stick. His insults, loathsome as they are, are disjointed and random - her name, her colour, her gender and absurdly, her IQ.

He refused further debates after she trashed him in September, especially with the increasing good news on the US economy.

Although excessive price anxiety is expressed, consumer behaviour is suggesting the opposite due to rising wages. The US economy is now in very good shape.

The only reason the DOW is down, is due to nervousness that Trump might win and enact his tariffs.

Trump's fall back is flogging immigration for all it's worth. But his ameliorating "plans" are non-nonsensical and probably, unworkable.

I am convinced that were Trump to kill an adversary in cold blood, some servile Republicans would act as apologists and staunch "Trumpists" would still vote for him, reassured that they are voting for a victimized Republican who is good on the economy.

I might have to eat humble pie on all this but we can only hope that the US sees sense again!
 
Latest set of polls in swing states are tight but look encouraging for Harris on trend.

Polls released in the past 12 hours:

Michigan
Harris +3: 48-45% (EPIC-MRA)
Harris +3: 51-48% (Marist)

Pennsylvania
Harris +2: 50-48% (Marist)
Harris +2: 50-48% (SoCal)

Wisconsin
Harris +2: 50-48% (Marist)

Nevada
Harris +1: 49-48% (Emerson)

x.com

x.com x.com
 
Firefly said:
I think any "decent" republican candidate would have stomped home in this election to be honest. The only reason it's so tight is so many are finding it difficult to vote Trump given all his baggage.
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Agreed.

Let’s face it, Kamala is there only as a result of circumstance. She was a politically acceptable nomination for VP but would never have been considered for the presidential nomination until Biden had his late-stage meltdown in the debate with Trump.

Any half decent Democratic candidate should be running away with things at this stage and the fact that the election is still in the balance points as much to her failure to convince voters as it does to Trump’s popularity.
 
I am actively avoiding all coverage of the US election.

I find it about 90% stupid and 0% directly relevant to my wellbeing.

Am I the only one?
 
Dr Strangelove said:
I am actively avoiding all coverage of the US election.

I find it about 90% stupid and 0% directly relevant to my wellbeing.

Am I the only one?
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I find it absolutely fascinating. I am looking forward to Tuesday night/Wednesday morning coverage even more than I am looking forward to City of Troy in the Breeders Cup this evening.
But I do agree that it should not be directly relevant to my wellbeing though it will take about a week for me to get over a Trump/Musk win :confused:
 
Salvadore said:
Any half decent Democratic candidate should be running away with things at this stage and the fact that the election is still in the balance points as much to her failure to convince voters as it does to Trump’s popularity.
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The last landslide win was in 1984 when Reagan beat Mondale. Reagan won 49 of the 50 states or more properly, 525 of the 538 electoral college votes.

Winning 97.5% of EC votes would suggest overwhelming popularity, yet he won just a little over half (58.8%) of the popular vote.

In 2016, Hilary Clinton won the popular vote but not the right EC votes.

The electoral college voting system distorts voter approval.

Nowadays, there is such polarization with the majority of states sticking with their traditional parties, regardless of the candidate, results come down to the few states that can be flipped.

Add in disruptive social media and fake news and you have the present-day clinchers and candidate concentration on battleground states.
 
There's only a few days left to election date, and Trump is spending most of his time campaigning in North Carolina (16 electoral votes).
This is a state he won in 2016 and 2020 and only voted Democrat once since 1976.
If he is having to spend so much time campaigning there, it doesn't look good for his chances in other swing states.
 
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Duke of Marmalade said:
I find it absolutely fascinating. I am looking forward to Tuesday night/Wednesday morning coverage even more than I am looking forward to City of Troy in the Breeders Cup this evening.
But I do agree that it should not be directly relevant to my wellbeing though it will take about a week for me to get over a Trump/Musk win :confused:
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I used to find it fascinating but in a more detached way... as a sortof Superbowl of politics.
The drama, the characters, how the candidates were being portrayed eg on Saturday Night Live and similar.

That was when the stakes for Ireland weren't so high, obviously there were ripples from Ireland from Reagan\Bush\Perot\Clinton\Dole\Gore\Bush\Obama\McCain\Romney etc

But nothing like the baleful consequences that could result from a second Trump term, for Ireland's economy, global economy, and European stability.
 
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