The R Word

What have we done wrong?

Allowed construction output to peak at almost 23% of GNP in 2006. Huge amounts of capital and labour were sucked into what is now a financial and economic black hole. If the construction sector were to shrink to 'normal' EU levels then we will have lost perhaps 10% of our economy.

Debates about the public sector aside, the real drivers of employment growth over the past 4/5 years have been the pubilc sector and the construction sector (with all the associated hiring in retail; services etc that were dependent on this).

We allowed inflation take hold and now workers (rightly) are demanding higher wages to compensate for this when in fact we need real wages to fall in order to restore competiveness (it took Germany a decade to do this). Ireland is a very expensive place to live in.

When did we last attract a flagship foreign company? We have completely failed to grow a domestic export sector yet the export sector is expected to now step up to the plate and rescue the economy. We are dependent on decisions taken in other countries for too much of our economic wellbeing.

Where are our domestic tech companies? When did and Iirsh company last list on the NASDAQ.

Knowledge economy? Not really. We need engineers and scientists but we have plumbers and estate agents. People are happy to believe that we have a well educated workforce but many IT companies are having trouble filling posts because I believe that we have a genuine educational and skills deficit. Why slog away at computer science when you could earn more as an electrician? For sure, we could attract overseas talent but see my point above about inflation.

Private sector credit almost equal to GNP! This will act as a severe drag on domestic consumption for years to come.

We need better infrastructure (the capital spending plan will address this in part but lack of €€€ will put a good portion on hold).

What have I missed?

Superb post.
Knowledge economy? Not really. We need engineers and scientists but we have plumbers and estate agents
That’s the best and most succinct summing up of what’s wrong with this country I have ever read.
 
While I have a huge big axe to grind about the public sector it is ridiculous to blame those who work in it for all our economic woes.
The basic problem is weak government with no real leadership and no vision of how the country should use its wealth.
Allied to that weak and bad management in the public sector, political interference and unions that resisted change for the sake of it (or to justify their own existence) and we just didn’t change the way we ran things from the 70’s and 80’s ‘till now.
Public sector employees are not the problem; they are just as motivated or lazy as those in the private sector. The problem is the structure they work within. They cannot change this.

We are now a nation of cynical and defeatist indebted consumers instead of a nation of citizens proud of what we have achieved over the last 15 years. This is because we realise that while things are better than they were they are nowhere near as good as they should be.

While this recession will hurt many (and my sector is right at the top of the list of those most exposed to it) it may well be the medicine that stops us from killing ourselves altogether.
 
We are now a nation of cynical and defeatist indebted consumers instead of a nation of citizens proud of what we have achieved over the last 15 years. This is because we realise that while things are better than they were they are nowhere near as good as they should be.

While this recession will hurt many (and my sector is right at the top of the list of those most exposed to it) it may well be the medicine that stops us from killing ourselves altogether.

Good points.

[broken link removed]

an excellent article from moneyweek on ireland

Agreed, an excellent article.
 
While I have a huge big axe to grind about the public sector it is ridiculous to blame those who work in it for all our economic woes.
The basic problem is weak government with no real leadership and no vision of how the country should use its wealth.
Allied to that weak and bad management in the public sector, political interference and unions that resisted change for the sake of it (or to justify their own existence) and we just didn’t change the way we ran things from the 70’s and 80’s ‘till now.
Public sector employees are not the problem; they are just as motivated or lazy as those in the private sector. The problem is the structure they work within. They cannot change this.

We are now a nation of cynical and defeatist indebted consumers instead of a nation of citizens proud of what we have achieved over the last 15 years. This is because we realise that while things are better than they were they are nowhere near as good as they should be.

While this recession will hurt many (and my sector is right at the top of the list of those most exposed to it) it may well be the medicine that stops us from killing ourselves altogether.

An excellent post. Aggree with every word.
 
While I have a huge big axe to grind about the public sector it is ridiculous to blame those who work in it for all our economic woes.
The basic problem is weak government with no real leadership and no vision of how the country should use its wealth.
Allied to that weak and bad management in the public sector, political interference and unions that resisted change for the sake of it (or to justify their own existence) and we just didn’t change the way we ran things from the 70’s and 80’s ‘till now.
Public sector employees are not the problem; they are just as motivated or lazy as those in the private sector. The problem is the structure they work within. They cannot change this.

We are now a nation of cynical and defeatist indebted consumers instead of a nation of citizens proud of what we have achieved over the last 15 years. This is because we realise that while things are better than they were they are nowhere near as good as they should be.

While this recession will hurt many (and my sector is right at the top of the list of those most exposed to it) it may well be the medicine that stops us from killing ourselves altogether.

I disagree Purple, I think there were two basic problems, one a result of the other; they were greed and envy. There were those who sought to make a quick buck and those who sought to ape the lifestyles of the rich and famous.

When we hear about the mess that people's personal finances are in, we don't ever hear "well you were greedy to have a big house with a huge interest only mortgages, a new car every other year, three holidays away, every gadget under the sun and a sex and the city lifestyle". Instead we hear how they were duped by easy money, that they didn't realise they had to pay it back, that they didn't look at the documents they were signing. Why did all those fools buy apartments in Sunny Beach? To go there on holiday? Please, spare me. They bought because they were greedy enough to believe the spiel told to them by the salesman who told them they'd double their money in five years and with a rental income to boot. And besides, everyone else has one.

We elected those most like us.

Rant off.
 
We are now a nation of cynical and defeatist indebted consumers instead of a nation of citizens proud of what we have achieved over the last 15 years.


But the very worrying problem Purple is that there is a very good chance we have achieved almost nothing in the last 15 years.

The ISEQ as I understand it is at the same levels as pre boom (I could be wrong on that though), and as we know that other great foundation of our "achievement", housing, is tanking as we speak. Those two elements alone account for most of our boom, and are now gone in the blink of an eye. So, what is it exactly that we have achieved?

That's not a rhetorical question by the way - I am open to being totally wrong, I just look around and do not undertsand (as I have not understood for 5 years+) where all the money is coming from and where all this wealth is being created. Trading house and the Dundrum Shopping Centre just don't do it - they are pretend growth, not real growth. So, honestly, what do we have left?

And I agree with Yogan's rant 100%.
 
Originally posted by starlite68 - i have two friends with university degrees and they are both unemployed now for the last few months -


So they can't get a job doing anything? I find that hard to believe.


I agree with Purple - if they were willing to work at anything they could most likely get a job. Problem may be that they will only accept certain jobs now and deem themselves over qualified for certain types of work which might be available.

I fear for the current generation who have no experience of leaving college and having to either get down and dirty to get a job or emigrate. Mummy and Daddy have brought them up a little soft methinks
 
"Public sector employees are not the problem; they are just as motivated or lazy as those in the private sector. The problem is the structure they work within. They cannot change this.
Public sector employees are not the problem; they are just as motivated or lazy as those in the private sector. The problem is the structure they work within. They cannot change this."

this is a good point indeed. guys / gals to be honest oil is going no where but up. 141 dollars this morning and counting. the worlds economies are fallign into recession, we will have stagflation everywhere. the stock market is a precursor to what will happen in the future, so if you believe this then china is headed for a massive massive massive slowdown, which will probably happen after the olypmics. we are all in serious trouble then. but it will last a few yrs, prices will subside due to lack of demand and growth will start again. we need to be ready for it
 
I disagree Purple, I think there were two basic problems, one a result of the other; they were greed and envy. There were those who sought to make a quick buck and those who sought to ape the lifestyles of the rich and famous.

When we hear about the mess that people's personal finances are in, we don't ever hear "well you were greedy to have a big house with a huge interest only mortgages, a new car every other year, three holidays away, every gadget under the sun and a sex and the city lifestyle". Instead we hear how they were duped by easy money, that they didn't realise they had to pay it back, that they didn't look at the documents they were signing. Why did all those fools buy apartments in Sunny Beach? To go there on holiday? Please, spare me. They bought because they were greedy enough to believe the spiel told to them by the salesman who told them they'd double their money in five years and with a rental income to boot. And besides, everyone else has one.

We elected those most like us.

Rant off.
I agree completely that we were greedy but I have no problem with people being greedy as long as they pay their taxes. The real problem is that many people took risks without informing themselves of just how much of a risk they were taking. There is a massive cultural problem in this country of people not taking responsibility for their own actions. I have taken financial risks in both a business and personal context but I fully accept that if things go pear-shaped and I end up loosing my home I will have no one to blame but myself. Those who, as you said, thought that they could get rich by coat-tailing the markets (in housing, stocks etc) without actually doing any work and now blame everyone but themselves give me a pain (see my thread in LOS about stupid debt).
 
Well we export goods produced by multinationals which set up and invested heavily here. The exported goods added to the bottom line of the multinationals which justified their original investments. Isnt that the story ? We couldnt produce our own innovation in large enough quantities so we get paid to produce the innovation of others ?
As long as people keep their jobs and this continues then we've achived something. However if we become inefficient through arrogance listening to the media telling us all how great we are and how we all drive suvs etc and have to have one thats 2009 etc then we're screwed. I dont wanna sound off the wall like mr tesla there so I wont elaborate but I think the media perpetuate this kind of twisted thinking.
The underlying problem is that we attracted those companies here by being a low-cost, low tax economy. Then for some bizarre reason thought that we could become a high cost economy and they would stay here. When did we forget that we took the jobs from people in the USA etc because they were paid more than us? Not those companies are leaving in exactly the same way they came and we have a problem with that. Why? We stole the jobs from someone else and now the next guy is stealing them from us.
The real tragedy is that we didn’t develop an indigenous high-tech manufacturing base (with a few notable exceptions like Trinity Biotech, Elan and smaller companies like Creganna Medical). There is no major economy in the world that does not have a strong high-tech engineering and science based manufacturing sector. Since the Second World War Germany, Japan, South Korea and China have all build their economy in this way. Why did we think offering cheap labour and stealing tax from Germans could was sustainable?
 
there are very few of these jobs being lost to be fair. unemployment is going up due to construction not to job losses in the likes on intel, dell etc
 
there are very few of these jobs being lost to be fair. unemployment is going up due to construction not to job losses in the likes on intel, dell etc
those companys that you mention are going to feel the knock-on effect of this downturn too...its just a matter of time, and there is noting stopping them from relocaiting to low wage countries with far lower overheads....just like what hibernian are doing with some of their operation.
i dont always agree with "purple" but there is a lot of truth in his last post.
 
i understand that but the high tech companies wont be as badly affected as they were in 2001 when the dot coms collapsed. we survived that didnt we? and came back stronger
 
we did...but i think everyone would agree that what we are facing now is being caused by very different events than in 2001
 
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