Predictions

My immediate reaction:- FF and FG can thank their lucky stars for yesterday’s atrocious wet weather in which many didn’t bother voting. We don’t know yet how the transfers will affect the figures, but SF appear to have addressed this during the campaign. A very interesting weekend of politics has started.
 
ArthurMcB said:
Why just ff and fg?
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Easiest question I was ever asked. The FF faithful always vote in huge numbers. FG faithful largely are nearly like that too. SF knew they needed transfers on a larger scale than previously. Many of the young vote didn’t show up through apathy or whatever. Which would affect transfers for SF. Our daughters (all professionals) were more interested in I’m a Celebrity, Get Me Out of Here instead of Party Leaders Debate.
 
Leper said:
Easiest question I was ever asked. The FF faithful always vote in huge numbers. FG faithful largely are nearly like that too. SF knew they needed transfers on a larger scale than previously. Many of the young vote didn’t show up through apathy or whatever. Which would affect transfers for SF. Our daughters (all professionals) were more interested in I’m a Celebrity, Get Me Out of Here instead of Party Leaders Debate.
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But your daughters are just that. My young professional daughters voted in their droves.
 
Leper said:
Easiest question I was ever asked. The FF faithful always vote in huge numbers. FG faithful largely are nearly like that too. SF knew they needed transfers on a larger scale than previously. Many of the young vote didn’t show up through apathy or whatever. Which would affect transfers for SF. Our daughters (all professionals) were more interested in I’m a Celebrity, Get Me Out of Here instead of Party Leaders Debate.
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Shows just how vacuous Sinn Féin are, lots of their supporters won't even bother getting a bit wet to go cast a vote for them. Thanks be to God.
 
From RTE:

Stephen Donnelly and Catherine Martin uphill struggle to hold their seat.
Hutch in the running for last seat in Dublin Central, turnout seemed to be up there a bit bucking the nationwide trend. Claire Daly seems to be out of the running.
Roderic O'Gorman will need transfers.

With 47% of the boxes tallied in Wicklow, Mr Harris is on 30.5% of the first preference votes, Sinn Féin's John Brady is on 14% and Jennifer Whitmore of the Social Democrats is on 13.5%. Mr Donnelly is on 6.5%. As the Minister for Health was the only Fianna Fáil candidate in the running here, he could be in danger of losing his seat.

In Dublin Central, the Green Party's Neasa Hourigan appears to be in trouble. Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald looks set to take the first seat at 20%, while Fine Gael's Paschal Donohoe looks likely to hold his seat at 17%. Gary Gannon of the Social Democrats also looks secure with 13%, with Mr Hutch (Ind) at 9%, putting him in contention for the fourth seat, along with Labour's Marie Sherlock at 7% and Fianna Fáil's Mary Fitzpatrick, also at 7%. Independents 4 Change's Clare Daly appears to be out of contention at 4%, as is the independent anti-immigration councillor Malachi Steenson, who is at 5%.

Green Party leader Roderic O'Gorman could be in a spot of difficulty in Dublin West. He sits at 7% of the first preference vote and is in joint fifth place in a five-seater.

www.rte.ie

Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin leaders re-elected

The leaders of Fianna Fáil, Sinn Féin and Fine Gael have all been re-elected to the Dáil tonight.
www.rte.ie www.rte.ie
 
Newstalk reported a few minutes ago that a complete Green wipe-out "is now firmly on the table".
Apparently latest tallies show both R O'Gorman and C Martin in serious trouble while Ossian Smith (Dun Laoghaire) has already lost his seat...

*Edit: As per above posted at the same time!
 
Howth Head said:
Newstalk reported a few minutes ago that a complete Green wipe-out "is now firmly on the table".
Apparently latest tallies show both R O'Gorman and C Martin in serious trouble while Ossian Smith (Dun Laoghaire) has already lost his seat...
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Yeah, RTE now reporting something similar.

The Greens look like they might lose all their seats in this election. All of its 12 TDs are in serious bother including outgoing Arts Minister Catherine Martin in Dublin Rathdown. Right now the party's best chance of holding a seat looks to be in Dublin West where Green Leader Roderic O'Gorman is hanging on.
 
peemac said:
PHEW - all changed and looks like our bets are safe. FF 1/6
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I really can't understand where the graphic in post #92 came from. I haven't been following it today - was this ever a sensible market? Of course it is quite a small market and it wouldn't take much to completely distort it, but why would anybody want to do that?
 
It now appears that SF only got 18.5% First Prefs and that far being third FF where highest of the 3, just as the "normal" polls were suggesting. They claim to have a "margin of error" of 1.4% which means the chances of being 1.4% wrong are 20/1 . Well they were 2.6% wrong on SF. Maybe too many cooks doing the exit poll (4 groups involved), only need one to be sloppy to throw off the accuracy.
 
51% of respondents in the exit poll say we're not doing enough regarding climate change and yet it looks like no green party member will remain! It seems the trend of crucify the small party in government was more important!
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
It now appears that SF only got 18.5% First Prefs and that far being third FF where highest of the 3, just as the "normal" polls were suggesting. They claim to have a "margin of error" of 1.4% which means the chances of being 1.4% wrong are 20/1 . Well they were 2.6% wrong on SF. Maybe too many cooks doing the exit poll (4 groups involved), only need one to be sloppy to throw off the accuracy.
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the polling companies are a joke, after the absolute haimes they made of the referendums being a mile out, why are they still being treated with such revereance?
 
joe sod said:
the polling companies are a joke, after the absolute haimes they made of the referendums being a mile out, why are they still being treated with such revereance?
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Well the pre election polls have been spot on. There should be a stewards enquiry into the exit polls. Punters have lost money :mad:
 
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