Shouldn't this thread be embargo-ed until 10pm?
The rain falling for most of the day will have more influence than this forum. No need for an embargo whatsoever.
Predictions
- Thread starter peemac
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The rain falling for most of the day will have more influence than this forum. No need for an embargo whatsoever.
Hard to see Labour even getting close to 10 given the fact they are not even running in every constituency. With the exception of Bacik and Alan Kelly and possibly Ged Nash, it's hard to see where the other 7 seats would come from
Dr Strangelove
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A FF-SF coalition is a very real possibility, perhaps propped up by independents or the Sockies.
How could Martin lead that? He was emphatic about not coalescing with SF.
Ceist Beag
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On the same point, how could MLMD go into such a coalition? She is equally emphatic about saying the next government cannot have either FF or FG.
I was surprised she backed herself into that corner. She hasn't a hope of cobbling together the left, never mind keeping them all contained for a government term. She needs FF.
Dr Strangelove
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He could step aside and let someone else takeover, after all we have a Presidential election in less then a year and he ran a very good "presidential" style campaign. ?
Brendan Burgess
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Apparently, after the election, Martin and McDonald will say "The people have spoken and we have to respect their choice" and then the negotiations will begin.
He has tied himself categorically to not going in with sinn fein and for very good reasons.
If FF did form a government with SF they would lose a very significant cohort of supporters for a very very long time.
The local SocDem candidate in Kildare dispared when he heard mlmd suggest SF voters should give 2nd preferences to soc dems. He'd say they were centre left rather than hard left as mlmd suggested.
Ceist Beag
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Judging by the exit poll you might have been better cashing out! That said transfers could change a lot
Duke of Marmalade
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Howth Head
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Just saw that.
So... a complete reversal/upside down version of all recent polls? Given that this is yet another poll I'll wait 'till the real result.
For actual first prefs usually v accurate. Polling people just after voting.
In our system though transfers and candidate splits come into play so in terns of the outcome not as predictive as eg in UK
Duke of Marmalade
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Moving to 2nd prefs
An exit poll indicates that 20% of the second preference vote goes to Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, with Sinn Féin at 17%, according to the RTÉ, Irish Times, TG4, Trinity College Dublin Exit Poll that was carried out by Ipsos B&A.
www.rte.ie
An exit poll indicates that 20% of the second preference vote goes to Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, with Sinn Féin at 17%, according to the RTÉ, Irish Times, TG4, Trinity College Dublin Exit Poll that was carried out by Ipsos B&A.
SF at 21.1%, FG at 21% with FF on 19.5% - Exit Poll
Follow for live updates on the RTÉ, Irish Times, TG4, Trinity College Dublin Exit Poll carried out by Ipsos B&A as voting in General Election 2024 came to a close across the country.