November 3, 2020: Consolidated General Election.

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Duke of Marmalade said:
All the bookies have also suspended betting. I guess it would be bad taste. A pity as I use the betting markets for unbiased assessments of how the campaign is going.
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Predictit is still open. Essentially Biden odds haven't changed much, Trump down a bit but Pence up (effectively some shift to Pence stepping in). But it's still low odds (about 15 / 1 or so)
 
EmmDee said:
Predictit is still open. Essentially Biden odds haven't changed much, Trump down a bit but Pence up (effectively some shift to Pence stepping in). But it's still low odds (about 15 / 1 or so)
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show all the household names have suspended betting. They have one crowd called $markets who are betting 8/15 Biden, 21/10 Trump and 33/1 Pence.
 
Interesting period of quarantine ahead so.
If Trump falls ill, how will it affect his support.
What if he remains asymptomatic? If he does, are debates by video conference viable? I couldn't see why not?
 
WolfeTone said:
Interesting period of quarantine ahead so.
If Trump falls ill, how will it affect his support.
What if he remains asymptomatic? If he does, are debates by video conference viable? I couldn't see why not?
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I'd say he'll have a perfect quarantine, people are saying that it will be the greatest quarantine ever.
 
WolfeTone said:
What if he remains asymptomatic? If he does, are debates by video conference viable? I couldn't see why not?
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At least he could be muted - but no, I suspect they will cancel them. Trump team were already suggesting that they wouldn't accept any rule changes so they were probably already setting them up to cancel
 
I just saw a what's app today and thought it was good ,it says.
Donald Trump has tested positive for the Corona virus, our thoughts are with the virus at this difficult time.
By the way one of his close contacts was Joe Biden...
 
Drakon said:
Nothing unusual about this. They always suspend betting when there’s an event, such as a horse being declared as a non-runner, or a decision on a penalty being made.
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Betfair markets are open again now
 
Drakon said:
Nothing unusual about this. They always suspend betting when there’s an event, such as a horse being declared as a non-runner, or a decision on a penalty being made.
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This is different. I see Betfair have suspended again. There always was the outside chance of serious illness or even mortality, hence the likes of Pence and Clinton stayed in the market. But I guess now that it becomes a real, if still unlikely eventuality, I am supposing there is a fear of some moral outcry at betting on it, which I guess is understandable.
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
I am supposing there is a fear of some moral outcry at betting on it, which I guess is understandable.
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The message I got from Betfair was that the suspension was to protect those with unmatched bets. Once any 'material developments' occur that could distort the market they suspend the market and cancel all unmatched bets. Once those material developments have subsided, the market opens again.
 
WolfeTone said:
The message I got from Betfair was that the suspension was to protect those with unmatched bets. Once any 'material developments' occur that could distort the market they suspend the market and cancel all unmatched bets. Once those material developments have subsided, the market opens again.
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You got a message from Betfair? They have misled you or you have misinterpreted them.
Typical example is when a goal is scored. Clearly unmatched bets are vulnerable, but the "material development" is history. So they open the markets again when they have cleared unmatched bets. Takes a few moments.
This does not explain the very protracted suspension of US Election betting nor the resumption of the market followed by a second suspension. And then we have the vast majority of bookmakers (but not all) suspending betting. Clearly there is an element of some decorum at play here, not that these guys are sensitive souls but they would be wary of any reputational damage. No "reputable" operator would risk standing out from the herd.
 
I would post a screenshot if I was able.
The full text of message from Betfair at 6:33pm 2nd October

"Dear _____
The Betfair Exchange suspended betting on the US election for a brief period on Friday (October 2) in order to protect customers with unmatched bets in the market.

Those unmatched bets have now been cancelled and the market reopened at 16:30.

We will continue to monitor any material developments and make appropriate decisions on any further market suspension if deemed necessary.

Regards
Betfair "


I agree, there is a large element of reputation to consider, insofar the perception of taking/hosting bets on the outcome of a race where one of the candidates has a potentially life-threatening illness is concerned.
Market remains suspended.
 
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WolfeTone said:
I would post a screenshot if I was able.
The full text of message from Betfair at 6:33pm 2nd October

"Dear _____
The Betfair Exchange suspended betting on the US election for a brief period on Friday (October 2) in order to protect customers with unmatched bets in the market.

Those unmatched bets have now been cancelled and the market reopened at 16:30.

We will continue to monitor any material developments and make appropriate decisions on any further market suspension if deemed necessary.

Regards
Betfair "


I agree, there is a large element of reputation to consider, insofar the perception of taking/hosting bets on the outcome of a race where one of the candidates has a potentially life-threatening illness is concerned.
Market remains suspended.
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Fair enuff. I think Betfair are being disingenuous in suggesting that the protracted (second) suspension is for technical reasons. It is because of the reputational risk in betting on the health/mortality of the president.
 
Betfair have opened market again: Biden 1.62 (62%), Trump 2.7 (37%).
Pence out to 110 so clearly speculation about Trump’s health little more than for typical 74 year old and so presumably deemed not in bad taste. Mind you anybody backing Pence is hardly wishing the President well, but then again she wouldn’t be alone in that.
 
Trump is out of hospital and recovering well from the China Virus. It went away on its own, like a miracle. The whole thing is fake news, that's what lots of people are saying. The doctors said it was a beautiful recovery, the best they'd ever seen.
 
Purple said:
Trump is out of hospital and recovering well from the China Virus. It went away on its own, like a miracle. The whole thing is fake news, that's what lots of people are saying. The doctors said it was a beautiful recovery, the best they'd ever seen.
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Think I'll give it a week to 10 days before I buy into the recovery story :)
 
The recovery is all down to the regular bleach bath ahead of the next fake tan application.
 
Well the Debate last night was a more civil affair. I suspect Ms Harris held back because she didn't want to be portrayed as an agressive women. Men who do the same thing are assertive and commanding but women are aggressive and emotional.
 
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