Some thoughts below Leo. And probably worth saying that I'm really just responding to your assertion that we need to develop FCEVs as an alternative to BEVs, because the BEV issues are possibly insurmountable. I'm definitely not arguing that there are no issues with BEVs at the moment, I'm just saying they're all short-lived, much shorter than the timescale of rolling out FCEV infrastructure
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Not annoying at all, they are points worth discussing and I've been known to be wrong in the past
Absolutely correct, and for many people, this will never be an issue. But for high mileage drivers, the need to wait around during the day for a top-up is a major inconvenience, and there are already reports of queues at the public fast charge points. The Regulator has spoken out against developing the current infrastructure any further until ESB Networks move to a paid model so the general public isn't subsidising EV drivers any more.
To be honest I don't see an issue with those high mileage drivers just staying in petrol/diesel cars until BEVs reach a point where it is OK for them, even if they never do. Getting 80/90% of drivers into BEVs would have a massive effect on air pollution and carbon output of the country, we can worry about the last 20/10% when we get there.
As ownership numbers rise, what happens where there are multiple cars in a household? 32A chargers are the max that can be installed here, with 16A the limit in homes that already have a high electricity demand such as those with heat pumps as the standard domestic electricity supply here is 12 or 16kVA. Higher capacity supply is available, but not in all locations, and they attract extra charges.
We have two BEVs at home, commute across the city and charge without issue to be honest. But it comes down to the actual usage of the average person, most of us only drive 50km per day so only need to add say 10kWh per night - plug both cars into 16A chargers and leave it overnight, the chargers will figure out how to charge the cars sequentially if required to avoid overloading the home. I do get that there are edge cases where two members of the family drive 200km each per day, but they fit into the 5% of people that can keep using petrol/diesel for the time-being.
That'll certainly address some of the public charge point queuing issues, but the power demands for these mean they won't work in a domestic setting. But as battery capacity rises to meet the demands of larger vehicles, even with high power charging points motorists will still end up waiting for extended periods.
What I mean there is as the size of the car increases, or the range is expanded, a larger, heavier battery is required. While the car may feel more sturdy, extra weight is not a good thing, no one ever added weight to a race car to improve its handling or performance
The range of the Leaf may well suit most journeys, but the majority of Irish drivers don't want to drive Leaf size cars.
Weight and battery capacities are only going to rise so far though, so this isn't an unbounded problem that we just keep needing to pile on charging-power to solve. The Model X is about as big and heavy as electric cars should get and is certainly well beyond what the size/weight your average EU citizen is likely to want. So honestly I don't see this as a big issue in the short-medium term, batteries for Joe Average will top-out at 80-100kWh I'd guess and if charging continues to get faster (which it surely will, saw an article for a 450kW charger this morning :O ) this problem will fade away.
No lamp post in the country could power a charging station. Where I work (~600 people), the building supply is capable of power 4 EV charge points. Any more would require upgrading the lines from the local substation at significant cost. Even now there are occasional issues with those who have EVs getting access to the points.
Yeah to be honest I actually agree here, I think once battery ranges increase and the vast majority of charging shifts to home, this need to destination charge will drop off big time, which will be good because as you say it will never be feasible to plug in 200 cars at a single office. I think lamp-posts could be useful for apartment dwellers to get an overnight slow charge though, again not for somebody commuting 200km a day, but for your average Joe doing 50km it would be totally fine to charge at a couple of kWs.
There isn't an existing battery chemistry whose capacity doesn't degrade over time. Even the $12k lithium-nickel-cobalt-aluminum-oxide batteries as used in Teslas suffer from oxidation. There's a lot of research going on in this area, but we're a long way from a solution yet.
Agreed but we don't need to reach a point where degradation reaches 0%. Tesla is just the first cut at it, assuming it improves does it really matter if a car loses 5% range after it hits 300k kilometres? Assuming the car had a few hundred kilometre range when it was bought new, and the owner is charging at home and ending up with a full tank every morning, I think 5-10% loss of range after huge mileages will be unnoticeable. Sure petrol/diesel engines get way less efficient at these sorts of mileages and nobody blinks an eyelid.
I think the "wilting Leafs" in hot climates have done a lot of damage to the BEV movement by highlighting this battery degradation issue, but once the last uncooled battery pack is sold this issue will hopefully leave peoples' minds.
I think people are slow to accept anything that they perceive as a retrograde step. Lower range and the time taken to charge an EV Vs a fuel refill will always be an issue.
I think it is just that though, perception. I was worried about it as well buying my first EV, within a few weeks I realised it was far handier to wake up with a full battery every morning than to be fluting around with dirty pumps in petrol stations a couple of times a week in the wind and rain. We'll have to agree to disagree that it will "always" be an issue because I think with larger batteries and quicker charging coming out constantly, I'd say it won't be an issue for more than a couple of years nevermind always
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There are many people for whom a home charging point isn't an option, many others with multiple cars don't want to be messing around moving cars or making sure no one else needs to use the charger overnight. Those limitations require more planning ahead, so
Two chargers solves any issue moving cars around. But again I think these are the minority of cases that yeah we may not be able to solve today, but lets try and get the 80-90% of people across as quickly as possible and take that benefit, the rest can be figured out then. For reference, 12% of homes in Ireland are apartments and I'm sure some people don't have suitable driveways or wiring for chargers as well, but we are talking about the minority and what we need is a quick and big impact on pollution.
Hydrogen is regularly shipped on the roads here and elsewhere via bulk tankers and smaller cylinders, I don't recall hearing of any issues. The dangers of hydrogen as a fuel are somewhat misunderstood too I think. When ruptured and ignited, hydrogen flames dissipate far faster than petrol flames and so might actually result in far less severe consequences. NASA did a lot of experimentation as to its viability and safety as a fuel source, the only times they were able to generate an explosion was with the introduction of liquid or crystalised oxygen.
I don't know a huge amount about it to be honest, but I'd guess the amount of hydrogen being shipped today must be absolutely tiny compared to the quantity required to replace petrol and diesel, which would surely scale up the risk significantly. From the first paragraph of Wikipedia - "Hydrogen possesses the
NFPA 704's highest rating of 4 on the flammability scale because it is flammable when mixed even in small amounts with ordinary air; hydrogen gas and normal air can ignite at as low as 4% air due to the oxygen in the air and the simplicity and chemical properties of the reaction. ... The storage and use of hydrogen poses unique challenges due to its ease of leaking as a
gaseous fuel, low-
energy ignition, wide range of combustible fuel-air mixtures,
buoyancy, and its ability to
embrittle metals that must be accounted for to ensure safe operation.
Liquid hydrogen poses additional challenges due to its increased
density and the extremely low
temperatures needed to keep it in liquid form.".
PS. Sorry for the length of that, but I like thinking these things through and writing them out, it's when you realise whether you really understand something or not
