"If crypto is not the answer to our money problems, what is?" Good FT article

Just to explain that my Tether implosion fantasy is not entirely my inner schadenfreude. My conviction is that bitcoin will end as zero and that has not been rocked one iota, if the timeframe looks rather longer than I might have expected. Before its eventual demise a lot of innocent folk will continue to conned by whales and shysters. The sooner it is finished the better. Tether implosion is the nearest thing to a nuke of bitcoin that there is.
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
Just to explain that my Tether implosion fantasy is not entirely my inner schadenfreude. My conviction is that bitcoin will end as zero and that has not been rocked one iota, if the timeframe looks rather longer than I might have expected. Before its eventual demise a lot of innocent folk will continue to conned by whales and shysters. The sooner it is finished the better. Tether implosion is the nearest thing to a nuke of bitcoin that there is.
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Expressing the view that bitcoin will go to zero and repeatedly stating that there can't possibly be any other outcome is wayward. It's wayward because you don't have control of that. I pulled Brendan up in the other thread on this point when he went on about credibility. A credible claim Duke would be that you have conviction in bitcoin failing but that it could continue to succeed even if you put its chances of succeeding in the 'very low' category. That would be a credible claim and conviction I would say - even if I don't agree with it.

Tether's failure would be 'unhelpful' to the development of crypto and bitcoin. However, at this point, in no way would it end it. We're nearly 6 months on after Terra/Luna imploded. There was lots of fall-out but crypto trundles forward all the while.

Getting your own schadenfreude caught up in the schadenfreude of others in their baseless prognostications re. Tether isn't helpful. If anything, it's damaging. How the hell is anyone going to believe a word if there is some real smoke signal of Tether going south now that there's been years of lies and half truths told? If it clouds people's judgement what those people are engaging with is dangerous - but of course they don't care about that - just their own venomous agendas.

Tether knows what way the regulatory winds are blowing. Maybe they have a giant sized hole in their finances all the while. I think we will find out one way or another very soon as they will have to oblige re. full and complete audits if they're going to maintain the giant sized business they've built. At that point, the FUDster bandwagon will gather up its things and start to poke holes in some other aspect of crypto.
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
Before its eventual demise a lot of innocent folk will continue to conned by whales and shysters
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Just a note on the 'shysters'. Bitcoin as a protocol is unblemished. There may well be actors that build unethical businesses, incompetently managed businesses or scams that involve themselves with the currency in some way. Celsius is an example of a business that was at best mismanaged (whether worse than that I think we may find out with the fullness of time). What these actors do in no way compromises bitcoin itself. An individual can decide to buy and use bitcoin if they so wish - that's their decision. It's not necessary to involve crypto lenders like Celsius. Someone talking their book happens across all industries. Therefore, any individual has an obligation to themselves to act on their own information and opinion - not on anyone elses.

Time and again, the picture is painted that 'shysters' only exist in crypto. That's not a true representation of the facts. You tell us Duke that you place faith and complete trust in central bankers.

Here are your central bankers.


Here they are again.

And the same thing happens to politicians that insider trade on actionable information as central bankers who do so - NOTHING!

But fear not, Nancy, her stock broker husband and their $120 million net worth can reassure you that everything is above board...

 
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@tecate where do you get this stuff from? That's what I mean by cult - you are part of a network which is determined to be fed every bit of muck it can find on the established financial order. Is it really so terribly shocking that some dude held more than the $50k limit in T-Bills that he was permitted?
Of course I am not demonising the bitcoin protocol. Nor do I swoon at its technological marvel.
It is the chorus of supposed gurus predicting stellar gains and stellar adoption for the "currency" and winding up a gullible audience of millennial FOMOs that churns my stomach.
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
@tecate where do you get this stuff from? That's what I mean by cult - you are part of a network which is determined to be fed every bit of muck it can find on the established financial order.
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Ah, it's inconvenient? I'm very sorry that it's inconvenient for you, Duke. May I suggest another approach then? Be accepting of the fact that there are 'shysters' lurking in every part of the financial system. That's all you have to do. Instead, you're back to the labeling/tar and feathering - that reflects on you.


Duke of Marmalade said:
Is it really so terribly shocking that some dude held more than the $50k limit in T-Bills that he was permitted?
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Are you for real? Did you review ALL of the examples i provided? And you don't think that you're indulging your bias by coming back with what you've tried to present as the most damage-limiting aspect of all that you could find? Not that its in order either. Do you know what the sanction is for someone making the same 'mistake' if they're registered with the SEC? They can't just say they didn't know - not that any sane person believes that to be the case! Do you know how many Fed officials have had to resign over the course of the last 12 months? Do you know how many officials have left the likes of the SEC and gone on to fat posts in the private sector - some of them who's decision making was positively adjusted prior to leaving the SEC? Get out of it, Duke.


Duke of Marmalade said:
Of course I am not demonising the bitcoin protocol. Nor do I swoon at its technological marvel.
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You might as well have had as you didn't make the distinction. In the very same way, what efforts did you make to separate honest actors in the crypto/blockchain space from these 'shysters' that you talk of? None because you're taring everything and everyone within the sector with that one brush simply because you hold a different opinion.

Duke of Marmalade said:
It is the chorus of supposed gurus predicting stellar gains and stellar adoption for the "currency" and winding up a gullible audience of millennial FOMOs that churns my stomach.
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Ok, and so that being the case, can you provide a link to the post here on AAM where you've declared that you're sick to the stomach at the horse crap that's forked out every minute on CNBC? Someone actually started a fund that takes the opposite side of Jim Kramer's claims and forecasts. It's a complete manipulation. But there won't be a word here from you on that. The usual double standards.

That people talk up their own book is as old as time began. It is not exclusive to crypto and by repeatedly singling it out, you're implying that to be the case. Secondly, I suspect you're not of the 'snowflake' generation but why take a 'snowflake' position? I'm not in any way down with people not taking responsibility for their own financial decisions - whether that's related to crypto, stonks, property or whatever else.

If someone is making a decision that they're not owning, then they shouldn't be making that trade/investment. If a fraud has been committed that has led directly to someone taking a decision, then all day long, have those fraudsters drawn and quartered. Otherwise, people should grow a pair and take responsibility.
 
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tecate said:
Just a note on the 'shysters'. Bitcoin as a protocol is unblemished. There may well be actors that build unethical businesses, incompetently managed businesses or scams that involve themselves with the currency in some way. Celsius is an example of a business that was at best mismanaged (whether worse than that I think we may find out with the fullness of time). What these actors do in no way compromises bitcoin itself. An individual can decide to buy and use bitcoin if they so wish - that's their decision. It's not necessary to involve crypto lenders like Celsius. Someone talking their book happens across all industries. Therefore, any individual has an obligation to themselves to act on their own information and opinion - not on anyone elses.

Time and again, the picture is painted that 'shysters' only exist in crypto. That's not a true representation of the facts. You tell us Duke that you place faith and complete trust in central bankers.

Here are your central bankers.


Here they are again.

And the same thing happens to politicians that insider trade on actionable information as central bankers who do so - NOTHING!

But fear not, Nancy, her stock broker husband and their $120 million net worth can reassure you that everything is above board...

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Where have you ever heard it said that shysters only exist in crypto?
 
time to plan said:
I have never heard anyone say that shysters only exist in crypto, so I'm curious where you have.
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Are you saying that there are genuine, hard-working creative people in the Web3/crypto space building out projects with integrity?
 
tecate said:
It's getting people accustomed to the digital wallet that's the point of friction.
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visa_digital_wallet.jpeg
 
letitroll said:
Decentralized crypto sure is getting very centralized lately......
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I think you're getting the hang of this, @letitroll . You've identified the centralized bits as the most troublesome. :cool:

I'll say what I said the time of another centralized meltdown - Celsius (which was only a few short months ago although it feels like a lifetime ago). The integrity of bitcoin remains intact - the same as it was and always has been and will be. I can send you a satoshi today the same as I could last week/month/year - or vice versa - on a truly decentralized basis. Nothing has changed in that respect.

Internet company fails ≠ Internet failed
Crypto company fails ≠ Bitcoin failed

That's not to say that the overarching 'crypto' space having its Lehman Bros. moment due to the shenanigans of some former Jane St. quants is a good day at the office by any stretch of the imagination. But, if this is the way it has to play out, so be it. In the short term, it's a god awful mess, in the longer run, it's for the best.

There are plenty within 'crypto' that agree with you by the way and they're hell bent on developing further purely DeFi systems and they're at pains to point out that this failure is a centralized failure - and not the failure of a decentralized platform. You don't need to take my word for that. Here's some commentary from a former CFTC commissioner:

"The evil financial trinity of centralization, leverage and opacity keep finding ways to blow things up. Until now, regulation was the only solution. DeFi presents a new one."

Meanwhile, centralized exchanges are moving to a proof of reserves model. It's not entirely foolproof but it goes much further than what we've got right now.
 
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A good day for common sense. Trump and Bitcoin on their death throes. I really should suppress this schadenfreude.
 
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Duke of Marmalade said:
A good day for common sense. Trump and Bitcoin on their death throes. I really should suppress this schadenfreud.
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:D Embrace the Schadenfreude Duke.

On the 'death throes', I won't pose this as a question as we've been down this road before. I'll just provide the clarification.

'Death throes' suggests that it's almost kicked the bucket. Yet if I was to ask you to improve on your frequently repeated timeline for bitcoin's death (Duke's bitcoin expiry prediction has always been between now and ∞ ), you still wouldn't have the confidence to improve on " ∞ "
As per previous posts, I had maintained that we were heading into the low teens anyway. I just didn't have FTX using customer funds to support Alameda's gambling on my crypto bingo card for 2022 in getting us there!
 
tecate said:
:D Embrace the Schadenfreude Duke.

On the 'death throes', I won't pose this as a question as we've been down this road before. I'll just provide the clarification.

'Death throes' suggests that it's almost kicked the bucket. Yet if I was to ask you to improve on your frequently repeated timeline for bitcoin's death (Duke's bitcoin expiry prediction has always been between now and ∞ ), you still wouldn't have the confidence to improve on " ∞ "
As per previous posts, I had maintained that we were heading into the low teens anyway. I just didn't have FTX using customer funds to support Alameda's gambling on my crypto bingo card for 2022 in getting us there!
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That was quick. Got me before I added the e to sf. Just teasing you. Bitcoin will be last woman standing, I’ll grant you that. Amazed by its recent “stability” but normal service has been restored.
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
That was quick. Got me before I added the e to sf. Just teasing you. Bitcoin will be last woman standing, I’ll grant you that. Amazed by its recent “stability” but normal service has been restored.
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And your point is that that last woman could be on her feet until -> ∞ or maybe some time before -> ∞
Would you be confident enough to take a stab at the following:
BTC will never see
A. $20k ever again.
B. $30k ever again.
C. $50k ever again.

I mean if you're using the phrase 'normal service' then my read on that is that you don't think it can hit those numbers, right?
 
My problem with Crypto is that I don't really understand it, in that I don't get what its intrinsic value is and I don't think the price Bitcoin trades at is a reflection of any intrinsic value, rather it is a reflection of a speculative bubble as a result of copious amounts of cheap money in a low interest rate environment looking for a return.
That's not to say that is doesn't have an intrinsic value, I just have no idea what it is and why it should have it and I don't invest in things I don't understand.
 
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Purple said:
My problem with Crypto is that I don't really understand it, in that I don't get what its intrinsic value is and I don't think the price Bitcoin trades at and a reflection of any intrinsic value, rather it is a reflection of a speculative bubble as a result of copious amounts of cheap money in a low interest rate environment looking for a return.
That's not to say that is doesn't have an intrinsic value, I just have no idea what it is and why it should have it and I don't invest in things I don't understand.
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This is it. And I've yet to come across a single person that can explain its value in simple terms, which suggests to me that they don't understand it either.
 
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