Housing and fake news

dereko1969 said:
The annual train ticket from Balbriggan is €1540, most employers facilitate the Taxsaver Scheme so the cost to user will be closer to €750 or €14.50 a week for higher taxpayers.
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Some employers do, some don't. Would a family buying a starter home in Balbriggan be on the higher marginal tax rate?
 

I did not pick a sample. I defined criteria, a three bed property, in the numbered Dublin post codes, advertised for sale at €250,000 or below. Then I looked on Daft to see if there were any such properties advertised. I found 41. Given the media narrative in this area I was surprised to find any. I suspect that if i repeat the exercise in a few weeks, after the Christmas lull, I will find a larger number

Certainly this does not establish that house prices in Dublin are affordable. It does however, in my opinion, contradict the prevailing narrative. It shows that there some 3 bedroom properties available that would be affordable, not to an unemployed person on €201 a week, but to a couple in employment on modest incomes.

Many of the responses have been to rubbish my post by reference to "dumps in finglas" or the impossibility of living in Tallaght while working in Sandyford.

As to the broader issue of median income and housing. I suggest the best question is what type of housing is available to buyers with the median income, and where is it located.
 
I have been looking at this discussion from the sideline and thought I would put my views on the matter for consideration.

We have some people (and I stress some and not all) who feel they can't afford to purchase a house. It would appear to me that people can't afford to buy where they want rather than were they can afford. A lot of people would probably like to live in a nicer house, bigger house, closer to family etc. Unfortunately, life is not like that, you have to live within your means.

On a personal level I started working and saving when I was thirteen. Have worked all my life. Bought my first home when I was twenty seven, had no new furniture for 3 years, house was a small two bed with no central heating, no kitchen, no shower, no washing machine or cooker. I had hand me down furniture for years. (it should be noted that my brother had a similar experience). I have since moved to a three bed property where I had to start again in terms of modernizing same.

Our perception seems to have changed, gone it appears are the days were people were willing to start out like the above and work towards what they want. We want everything now and if we can't get it then its society's fault.

Perhaps one of the main issues we have with the general property sector/market is the lack of competition in the banking sector coupled with our refusal to allow for normal repossessions. Also, our Govt intervention in the rental sector via its various schemes of HAP, RAS etc is distorting the market even further.
 
If only that this was fake news!

http://www.thejournal.ie/gresham-hotel-homeless-families-3781001-Jan2018/
 

It would be an interesting experiment if you could assess the value of that property now versus your inflation adjusted income over that period and determine if it would have been affordable to a version of you from a later generation looking to start out in 2017.

My parents would have done the same as you and there's zero chance they would be able to afford the house they bought with a comparable current income, even at the very bottom of a property recession.

You also had the opportunity - I'm assuming you were living at home between 13 and 27 - of biding your time to buy the property.

Maybe the perception of starting from the bottom has changed because it's not as viable a strategy as it once was.
 
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cremeegg said:
There are 41, 3 bedroom properties for sale in Dublin at present for less than €250,000. With a 10% deposit that represents less than €1,100 a month over 25 years.

Housing in Dublin is not unaffordable.
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I must be reading this wrong, the majority of Dublin is completely un-affordable to the average Joe/Mary.
If this statement was applicable to the Aran Islands, it would have some merit.

40 houses in the whole of Dublin under a quarter of a million Euros, and you say we dont have a problem, are you trying to be funny or are you just seeking Trump attention..

Like some posters here, Had I not bought years ago, I would not be able to afford the property im in now, only I sought other investments out years ago, and this area in on Brontes list of "affordable areas".

I was in EBS the other day with a view to opening another Account, I did mention I would like to take out another small Mortgage soon, They dont do investment properties, I need to talk to one of the two main banks was the reply. A choice of two flamin banks to do business with, Ridiculous in a first world country.


Were not as a Country able to manage a crisis, as has been proved time and time in the past, and i do fear for my kids when the time comes for them to fly the nest. This is not a dig at Ireland, but I do encourage them to see the world, and not to rule out laying roots down elsewhere.
 
cremeegg said:
I suggest the best question is what type of housing is available to buyers with the median income, and where is it located
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Fair enough.

According to the report, the median household income in Dublin in 2016 was €58,400 and the median house price was €276,000.

For reference, €58,400 (3) = €175,200. Good luck finding a habitable family home at that price level anywhere in Dublin.

In any event, I think we can say with some confidence that median house prices increased at a greater rate than median household incomes in 2017. Or to put it another way, houses in Dublin became less affordable over the course of 2017.
 
Sarenco said:
According to the report, the median household income in Dublin in 2016 was €58,400 and the median house price was €276,000.
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A household income of €58,400 should give approx. €43,800 after tax or €3,650 per month.

A mortgage of €248,400 is €1,200 per month at 3.2% with AIB.

That is almost precisely one third of the after tax income. High but not excessive.

I take the point that interest rates can vary over the term of the mortgage, but prices reflect current rates, and current affordability reflects current rates.
 

The fact that homeless families are being accommodated in the Gresham just shows how far from reality the entire situation is.
 
Good stuff.

So can we agree that a house price of €250k is at the limits of affordability for a household with a median income in Dublin?

Or to put it another way, a house priced above €250k would be unaffordable for 50% of households in Dublin on the basis of their household income.
 

A house priced at €276,000 with a 90% mortgage.

If we agree that then we are saying that, the median house, was affordable at the median household income, last year.

Which rather contradicts the media narrative
 
cremeegg said:
A household income of €58,400 should give approx. €43,800 after tax or €3,650 per month.
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Your figures are off if you're talking about a public sector job. Have you taken USC/ pension levy etc into account? The real figure is more likely to be around the €3100 mark (if public sector).
 
cremeegg said:
If we agree that then we are saying that, the median house, was affordable at the median household income, last year.
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Well, personally I think it would be more accurate to say that median house prices were moderately unaffordable, at the median household income, in 2016 (or, to use your phrase, "high but not excessive").

Did affordability at the median household income improve in 2017?

Would you have expected a household at close to the median household income to live in any of the 41 houses that you identified in your original search?

I certainly take the point that houses are still affordable in traditionally low-income neighbourhoods for median income households. But what about households in the bottom 50% of the income spectrum?
 
dereko1969 said:
The annual train ticket from Balbriggan is €1540, most employers facilitate the Taxsaver Scheme so the cost to user will be closer to €750 or €14.50 a week for higher taxpayers.
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It's outrageous that other poster even brought it up at all in the context of paying mortgages of over one thousand. That and other things on this thread lead me to believe there is a load of nonsense being debated. Thank you for the correct figure. No idea but what is 14.50, three caffe lattes in Starbucks a week.

Any poster at all prepared to put up figures. Because you see all I can conclude is some people want it all. And are not willing to compromise. And I met a lot if them during the Celtic tiger. Most memorable was the young lady wanted a brand new house, fully knitted out, the garden done too, the holidays etc and wouldn't countenance a second hand house even though financially it made more sense and little or no commuting time by comparison. She thought I was nuts of course.
 
odyssey06 said:
If you can't afford the mortgage under stress conditions, you can't afford the mortgage.
Not so much don't buy, as can't buy.
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Prove it with real figures.

Don't know what you mean by stress, but buying a house is very stressful. In addition to being financially stressful. Never met a person yet, in general, who didn't struggle in the early years to pay their mortgage.
 
Purple said:
Some employers do, some don't. Would a family buying a starter home in Balbriggan be on the higher marginal tax rate?
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Let's say you pay the full fare. If 30 euro is the deal breaker you shouldn't even be thinking of looking at a house.

Can't believe how many of you are on about the train costs. If that's an issue every worker should have zero travel costs.

Could someone tell me what is wrong with Balbriggan please.
 
Bronte said:
Prove it with real figures.
Don't know what you mean by stress, but buying a house is very stressful. In addition to being financially stressful. Never met a person yet, in general, who didn't struggle in the early years to pay their mortgage.
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I don't have to prove anything. You are the one suggesting just because someone right now can afford a high level of rent, they can afford the mortgage on the property for the next 20 years, regardless of interest rates, or other economic stresses. I am pointing to central bank limits of 3.5 on salary and bank stress testing of ability to pay mortgage.

The other stress I'm talking about is the stress of buying in an around and being hounded by anti-social behaviour.
 

When people who live in the real world look at properties, one of the things they look at is the cost of coummuting.
The difference between living say in Raheny and Balbriggan and commuting in the city runs into thousands of euros over the course of a mortgage. At least that is what a prudent person would do.
Those kind of things matter when it comes to making things affordable, not the price of lattes in Starbucks.

If people on mid to high incomes are having to buy in Balbriggan or Ashbourne, with the attendant commuting costs, clearly the price of property in Dublin is not affordable.
 


You've demonstrated nothing to me. Zero figures, nonsense about a 30 euro train ticket and now red herrings about anti social behaviour.

Creme Egg and I have put up a load of grand houses. The truth is some people don't want to live in Tallaght and that's what this is about.
 
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