JohnnyBoy said:I know it's "how long is a piece of rope",but anybody prepared to put any ballpark time frame on the bubble busting?.
JohnnyBoy said:Only reason ,I ask is that 2 friends of mine are considering emigrating as they can't afford a shed in Cork city & I'm trying to reassure them/keep them in country!
ivuernis said:
- Interest rates will probably be at least 4% in the ECB by then.
- Another 80,000-120,000 housing units will have been built... eventually supply will start to meet demand.
- Oil and gas prices will almost certainly continue to rise affecting the costs of many things and most importantly pushing up inflation.
redo said:If the US were to attack Iran that would push oil prices even further, the ECB would have to fend off energy prices/inflation by rising rates even further say a base 0f 4.5 - 5 %
redo said:I personally think that there is too much supply at the moment but it's really hard to get an accurate picture. However, I think the real danger is the demand reducing and not the supply increasing. Too much supply may lead to a stablisation of prices, reduced demand, will cause them to fall. The demand will eventually fall when prices level off after the ECB rate kicks in and there are even murmurs about the ECB lifting rates again in May.
gearoidmm said:There are some who suggest that, for this reason, the ECB interest rate rises have little to do with inflation and more to do with asset prices and getting back to 'normal' levels.
gearoidmm said:There are some who suggest that, for this reason, the ECB interest rate rises have little to do with inflation and more to do with asset prices and getting back to 'normal' levels. The inflation rate is being used to justify the rate rises to politicians
SteelBlue05 said:So what are 'normal' levels?
the dutch have more of a reason to have high price rise theres feck all land there! we have six times more land per person in ireland!we even have six times more land per person than england! even with their boom i dont think dutch house prices are anywhere near our prices.because we ahve so much land in ireland and room in dublin to build up in the future in the long run supply WILL exceed demand and this will cause prices to fall independent of other factors like economy affordabilty etc.
gearoidmm said:Remember that there will be a sharp fall in inflation in August/September. At the moment, core inflation is low and the rise is almost totally accounted for by the rise in energy prices. Inflation is calculated on a yearly basis and oil prices have actually fallen slightly since August last year. As a result, year-on-year inflation probably will nosedive in August removing from the ECB one of the core rationals for their recent interest rate hikes.
ivuernis said:Absolutely they would go higher. However, it may not even take a US attack on Iran for this to happen. If tensions escalate further in this stand off then the Iranians may just take some of their supply off the market thus using it as an economic weapon if sanctions were applied against it.
I purposely left out any scenarios like this though as these are hard to predict. The ones I did give are all likely though.
World supply and demand are about evenly matched at the moment. There is no spare capacity really to increase production. All predictions are for demand to continue to rise and for supply to eventually start to decrease. When and by how much supply falls by is a whole other debate though.
gearoidmm said:Remember that there will be a sharp fall in inflation in August/September. At the moment, core inflation is low and the rise is almost totally accounted for by the rise in energy prices. Inflation is calculated on a yearly basis and oil prices have actually fallen slightly since August last year. As a result, year-on-year inflation probably will nosedive in August removing from the ECB one of the core rationals for their recent interest rate hikes.
There are some who suggest that, for this reason, the ECB interest rate rises have little to do with inflation and more to do with asset prices and getting back to 'normal' levels. The inflation rate is being used to justify the rate rises to politicians
in an economy growing at 2% its normally 4-5%.look at uk its growing at close to eurozone at present(2.5%) and their rates are still at 4.5%.usa is growing at 3% and rates are 200basis points higher than that there too.SteelBlue05 said:So what are 'normal' levels?
bearishbull said:because we ahve so much land in ireland and room in dublin to build up in the future in the long run supply WILL exceed demand and this will cause prices to fall independent of other factors like economy affordabilty etc.
gearoidmm said:Remember that there will be a sharp fall in inflation in August/September.
the 300,000 figure is zoned yes.Loki said:Can you guys tell me who will win the 3:30 in Cheltnum today seeing as you can see the furture?
Unbelievable arrogance without any facts stated.
Bear> Name where there is room!
You claimed some figure for units zoned in Ireland yet never stated how you knew the number of units when only land is zoned and planning tells you what houses may be built. DId you get zoned and permission mixed up?
Riddicule any view that doesn't agree with yours yet state your views as fact.
All these houses that can be built in Dublin where is all the sewage works and the like going to go? The rules changed we can't dump it on another council area. You never stated where all these appartments were being built on knocked down houses
Fine to have an opinion but you run away scared when asked for facts.
I have a fair knowledge of city planning guides and EU regulations. I would love to see where and what you are talking about to see if it is even possible under current laws and regulations. Green spaces in Dublin or very important and it will be interesting to see how much planning persmission will actually be granted for what remains.
bearishbull said:in an economy growing at 2% its normally 4-5%.look at uk its growing at close to eurozone at present(2.5%) and their rates are still at 4.5%.usa is growing at 3% and rates are 200basis points higher than that there too.
But.. inflation isnt only consumer price inflation, asset price inflation is a concern for them too,they realise that house prices have been booming in france spain and other areas which isnt justified by economic growth there.gearoidmm said:That's fair enough if interest rates could be directly linked to GDP growth. The ECB tells us, however, that their main aim is price stability and without rising inflation, they have no excuse for raising rates much more than their current level.
Proof? As I said property is not zoned by anybody so that is why I doubt the figure as it doesn't make sense.bearishbull said:the 300,000 figure is zoned yes.
Where have they knocked downbearishbull said:where is there room? the room is above our heads.we have to and will build up and fill in spaces in the city which arent green areas
Again you can tell the furure how do you know what the planners will do.?bearishbull said:theres room to build higher in many areas of dublin,planners are going for higher density eg new 30 storey tower at heuston station etc,theres many old factories and sites being knocked down and developed and many other locations that can be developed.smaller lower density office
bearishbull said:blocks/development will be knocked down and developed and the amount of housing and densities will increase a lot in dublin.this wont happen overnight but in next 20 years we will have a much higher skyline,this has to happen if the government wants the economy to prosper as dublin is the centre of the economy,every other country in the world manages to fit many millions of people into area's not much bigger than dublin too
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