Future price of Irish properties

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redo said:
This thread is about the future price of irish properties. It is all speculation. People here are using facts and statistics to augment their points of view. You continually state that people are wrong or stupid when they express their views legitimately. I don't think that this board is reaps any benefit whilst you are a member. I urge the admin to give to a ban of a week so that we may continue airing our views.
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Seconded.
 
askalot said:
Seconded.
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Is that becasue you feel better after saying my spelling was wrong and my views a drivel. Glass, stones, live, throw, shouldn't, houses,those, who, live, in. Put into a sentence
 

Can we add an poll to this thread so people can indicate whether they are say (a) bullish, (b) undecided, or (c) bearish on the future price of Irish property?

I've grown weary trying to follow the thread lately since it's snowballed into a semantics debate.

 
Maybe a more simplisitic idea would be to vote on the following

> 15% increase
5 to 15 % increase
0 to 5% increase
-5% to 0% increase

you get the drift.
 
Firstly, most of the recent trouble in this thread appears to be caused by new members. This thread had been running without any need for moderation until recently.

Secondly, we don't do temporary bans on AAM. It's permanent or nothing at all.

Thirdly, if somone breaks a Posting Guideline, we will moderate as we see fit. You can use the 'Bad Post' icon in the top right hand corner of a post if it is in bad taste, insulting etc.

Fourthly, AAM is not a democracy. So it doesn't matter how many votes we (the Mods and Admins) get from members, we can choose to ignore them if we wish.

So let me finish by saying this:

Cop on to yourselves, respect each others opinions, don't get so worked up about this issue, and abide by the Posting Guidelines.

I won't lock this thread-it is one of the more popular ones on AAM. But I will ban (permanently) anyone who questions the moderation policy or breaches the Posting Guidlines.

I trust that I am being clear. If anyone has a problem with anything I have said, take it up directly with Brendan, but I doubt that you will get much change out of him.
 
redo said:
This thread is about the future price of irish properties. It is all speculation. People here are using facts and statistics to augment their points of view. You continually state that people are wrong or stupid when they express their views legitimately. I don't think that this board is reaps any benefit whilst you are a member. I urge the admin to give to a ban of a week so that we may continue airing our views.
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However, I do enjoy this debate and would feel that without loki's presence this board/thread would have a detremental effect on the full analysis of the topic. But no name calling please and perhaps instead of stating that your wrong etc, please can we replace with I don't agree
 
redo said:
However, I do enjoy this debate and would feel that without loki's presence this board/thread would have a detremental effect on the full analysis of the topic. But no name calling please and perhaps instead of stating that your wrong etc, please can we replace with I don't agree
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Somethings are simply wrong without any opinion. A definitition is that, corrections must be made. Opinion is left alone by me but pestering people is unacceptable. If a words or term has a definition there can be only counter defintion no more belief in opinion over fact. Somepeople state things that are untrue and are simple incorrect they will be called on this by me if that means I get banned fair enough.
 
Loki said:
Gravity is also a theory. I
Wrong.
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You have me on this. Gravity itself is a measurable force but there are theories as to why is exists. This was the intended meaning, "The theory of Gravity"

Similarily, economics is measurable and there are many classic theories on its effects.
 
redo said:
You have me on this. Gravity itself is a measurable force but there are theories as to why is exists. This was the intended meaning, "The theory of Gravity"

Similarily, economics is measurable and there are many classic theories on its effects.
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Without going into all of it there are many theories of gravity so you would need to state which one.

Economincs tries objectively to predict and explain consequences of choices. The big thing is any rules or theory of economics is not percise it is a general fuzzy logic. Strangely it is a social science yet does not include how social structures change very much

On the overall front. Property is a risk but for many people an extra property is a smallish risk over the long term and may not balk at a a drop or intrest rate hikes.
 
Loki you never respond to my posts; but here goes.

There is a whole branch of economics which deals with what you describe as the cultural context, ie Behavioural Economics, most notably the Austrian School. Behavioural economics seeks to explain such issues as rising capital values in the face of falling revenues, market booms and busts and investor behaviour.

It is argued that classical economic theory takes little account of human behaviour.
 
Loki said:
Without going into all of it there are many theories of gravity so you would need to state which one.

Economincs tries objectively to predict and explain consequences of choices. The big thing is any rules or theory of economics is not percise it is a general fuzzy logic. Strangely it is a social science yet does not include how social structures change very much

On the overall front. Property is a risk but for many people an extra property is a smallish risk over the long term and may not balk at a a drop or intrest rate hikes.
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I think the buy-to-let market is over exposed at the moment. There are some people who only own one (investment) property (professionals living at home for example). The most recent purchasers may find, in the comming months, that there is too much supply and the potenial tennants will tend to gravitate (no pun intended) toward properties better serviced by transport etc, e.g. Apartments in town. In my opinion, they would have to reduce their rental prices to make their properties more attractive to offset any negativity of their properties' location, if not town based.

Another factor which is not taken into account in the generic house price inflation index that get banded around all the time is famaily homes. While apartments and duplexes may have a nominal growth of around 3 - 5%, the bigger 4 bed and 3 bed semi d's are surging ahead. And it is precisely thses properties that "investors" are snapping up
 
redo said:
I think the buy-to-let market is over exposed at the moment. There are some people who only own one (investment) property (professionals living at home for example). The most recent purchasers may find, in the comming months, that there is too much supply and the potenial tennants will tend to gravitate (no pun intended) toward properties better serviced by transport etc, e.g. Apartments in town. In my opinion, they would have to reduce their rental prices to make their properties more attractive to offset any negativity of their properties' location, if not town based.
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Agree with the above, rental prices in many places which are not well serviced are quite high. As new supply comes on board I believe that real rental prices will fall in the order of 4-5% per year for the next 3-4 years. In my view rent is still quite high here (in Dublin) when compared to other cities such as Stockholm. Previous threads have alluded to places such as Portlaois where 3 beds which used to generate 750pm are now returning less that 500pm. Why would an investor with one property keep such a place?
 
Loki said:
On the overall front. Property is a risk but for many people an extra property is a smallish risk over the long term and may not balk at a a drop or intrest rate hikes.
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And if they do balk at interest rate hikes and a downward movement in prices, what happens then?

I get kind of lost with your analysis sometimes. There seems to be an awful lot of maybes. Maybe people see it as a small risk, maybe people will hold out.

You need a lot of faith in people to rely on those maybes though.

For me, the interesting question is do we or do we not have oversupply at the moment. Assuming that most people here are centring their interest on the investment market, which does, let's face it, appear to be the case, there is some scope to believe that there is excessive supply in some sections of the market. There are some statistics suggesting that 1) up to 40% of recently completed property remains empty and 2) rents are static and dropping.

These two indicators suggest to me that the rental market is massively oversupplied - even allowing for the influx of workers we have here at the moment.

The primary purpose of a house is for it to be lived in. It is not to make money. I think we have lost sight of that reality. If 40% of recently completed property is lying empty then we have collectively gotten some sums wrong.
 
rents are generally staying flat over last few years,if there was such massive immediate demand for housing why havent rents risen?? if rents arent rising in the current economic environment imagine if all the foreign workers werent here renting !! rents of 3 bed houses are'nt even rising in line with inflation/income growth,this tells me things arent as house prices would lead you to beleive.
 
redo said:
PS. I think the Theory of Gravity is beyond the scope of this thread
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So why bring it up in the first place?

Or the '8 out of 10 cats etc.' comment.

Stick to the original topic.
 
redo said:
I think the buy-to-let market is over exposed at the moment. There are some people who only own one (investment) property (professionals living at home for example). The most recent purchasers may find, in the comming months, that there is too much supply and the potenial tennants will tend to gravitate (no pun intended) toward properties better serviced by transport etc, e.g. Apartments in town. In my opinion, they would have to reduce their rental prices to make their properties more attractive to offset any negativity of their properties' location, if not town based.

Another factor which is not taken into account in the generic house price inflation index that get banded around all the time is famaily homes. While apartments and duplexes may have a nominal growth of around 3 - 5%, the bigger 4 bed and 3 bed semi d's are surging ahead. And it is precisely these properties that "investors" are snapping up
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Read - And it is precisely these properties (Apartments and multi story duplexs that "investors" are snapping up
 
lads - you've convinced me - I'm gonna take that €0.25million profit (after CGT/costs) on the D16 three bed semi I bought during the last "shivers" in late 2001 - buy when its wobbly - sell with a smidgeon in it for paddy last
 
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