Future price of Irish properties

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From todays indo

The hills are green far away, but overseas investments might not match the hype

WANNABE 'property millionaires' have been warned to watch out - the overseas property investment sector is rife with scammers.
Along with the dodgy scams, the sector is also awash with perfectly legal ploys designed to extra large sums from investors who stand to gain little if anything.

And the Irish are gaining an international reputation as 'property patsies'.
One property market expert told Your Money this week: "There are three prices for overseas property - the price for the locals, the price for overseas buyers, and the price for the Paddies."

The selling of apartments for investment is unregulated. So little wonder that supposedly high-yielding properties have often turned into loss-making properties when unrealistic claims about rental yields, capital appreciation and the likes of vandalism and maintenance are factored in. Consumer activist and founder of the consumer advice website, www.askaboutmoney.com Brendan Burgess, maintains the overseas property investment market is exhibiting signs of a bubble. "There is a buying frenzy going on out there, and it is a bubble - just like the dotcom or tulip bubbles. People think they should go off and borrow money to buy property. "But just like any bubble, people at the moment are not looking at the yield and how it relates to the asset. And when that happens, they will be scammed." Mr Burgess added that some people were breaking every rule in the book. They are buying properties without going to the location, and they are seeking advice from those selling the property instead of independent counsel.

One property expert conceded: "A lot of people are being taken to the cleaners and they don't know it. The chickens will come home to roost when they find out the rents are not up to it, or that they paid too much." He said people were trusting selling agents when they make fairytale promises about the rents that can be commanded.

Often Irish people are borrowing money to buy abroad by remortgaging their Irish home. They are then taking out interest-only mortgages to pay for the foreign investment venture. Prospective buyers overseas are strongly advised to talk to a variety of estate agents in the area they are considering buying in, and checking out the likes of cost per square metre in the area. The following are some of the ways property buyers are finding themselves shortchanged.

Hidden margin for property seller:

Investors are being sold apartments at inflated prices. What happens is the property company approaches the developer of an apartment block. The property company offers to sell the entire block. The property company buys up the apartment units for say €220,000 each and gives the developer between €22,000 per unit upfront. Developers find it attractive as they get rid of the entire block at a stroke, albeit at a heavy discount. The apartments are then sold off to Irish investors at a profit of €51,000 per apartment for the selling company. This profit margin for the selling agent is hidden from the buyer. Property adviser Diamuid Condon warned: "These people are ot breaking any laws. They are using their bulk buying power to take a cut on the price, but this type of thing is inflating the British apartment market, which means the apartments will not be that saleable."

Rent guarantee ploy:

Another twist on the buy-to-let phenomenon is the way 'guaranteed rents' are used to lure in investors. Investors are typically offered a guaranteed rental income for two years. But this 'rent guarantee' has been built into the purchase price of the apartment. In other words, people are paying for the rent guarantee with their own money. And the rental income is taxable. Again, it is not illegal, but poor value.

Advertising apartments at a 25pc discount:

An old favourite of property sellers in an overheated market is to offer overseas properties at a huge discount, usually 25pc. "The launch price of €300,000 represents a 25pc discount to market value of €400,000," is a fairly typical sales pitch. Remember: if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is too good to be true.

Landbanking:

Landbanking involves buying land on the promise or hope that it will be rezoned. Plots are sold for around €10,000. But only later does the investor find out that the land can never be rezoned as it is on the side of a mountain or it is green-belt (protected) land.

Property education seminars:


This involves spending €3,700 and going off to a seminar on property buying. After that, you are offered discounts on properties that have been bulk bought. Commissions of 20pc per unit for the sellers are not untypical.

Syndicated buying:

This is where prospective property investors pay to join a syndicate. Typical upfront payments are between €12,000 and €15,000. In return, the buy-to-let syndicate then offers 'discounts' on properties.


Property advisers say the best way to avoid being scammed and get good value is to source your own property, do plenty of homework, and seek independent advice
 
Please note the Posting Guidlines re. the reproduction of articles.

Would it be an idea for someone to start a thread on the Irish investing in overseas properties and the pros/cons?
 
CCOVICH said:
Would it be an idea for someone to start a thread on the Irish investing in overseas properties and the pros/cons?

I see that Ric has obliged.

Any commentary/opnion/facts on overseas property in that thread please.
 
Neffa said:
We're renting a 4-bed and still paying about 60% of the equivalent mortgage cost of owning it.

Cannot comment on the other sectors but from the postings here it looks like it may extend throughout the food chain
Believe me Neffa that percentage gets even better the more "exclusive" an area you rent in. Im currently renting a 3-bed in one of those areas for a rather tasty 47% of the cost if you bought with with a 90% mortgage over 30 years. (Obviously that doesnt even include upkeep costs, interest rates hikes, the opportunity cost of having that massive 10% deposit locked up in a non-liquid asset)
 
soma said:
Believe me Neffa that percentage gets even better the more "exclusive" an area you rent in. Im currently renting a 3-bed in one of those areas for a rather tasty 47% of the cost if you bought with with a 90% mortgage over 30 years. (Obviously that doesnt even include upkeep costs, interest rates hikes, the opportunity cost of having that massive 10% deposit locked up in a non-liquid asset)

yeah ,its not a good time to bed one of those prestige properties,friends have a 3 bed in ranelagh valued at 800k for 1600 a month(cash in hand).i cant beleive how many are still buying in at these prices,maybe they think things cant go wrong or that they will get out in time with a big capital gain.the sooner "investors" realise that unless you bought before 2004 you are taking a big gamble the better.
 
Also, property "investors" seem to be buying anything, miles out of Dublin. The only trueism in the property market is Location, Location, Location.
 
I’ve attached (below) a first hand account of a realtor’s quest to buy a new house for clients in Sacramento California. It seems that home builders are discounting heavily, and this is before the spring ‘season’. These guys (the builders) must be working off fat margins if the can take a hit of 20% on a new build.

Has anyone any thoughts on the sudden jump in the American Bond (Treasury) market yesterday. Though the yield curve remains inverted, it seems that some commentators are predicting that the Yen carry trade will be impacted by a rise in Yen rates in the near future.
(The carry trade makes money by borrowing cheaply in Japan and investing in Dollar debt which has a higher yield). The jump in 10 year bonds is likely to add to the cost of borrowing in the US.

I still can’t figure what the Fed is up to, the new Chairman is about to stop reporting one measure of money supply M3, he has made remarks in the past about printing more dollars (hence liquidating lots of American debt), The Chinese, Japanese and Saudi’s it seems are still buying dollar debt, the US Senate has yet to vote to increase the debt ceiling above $8.2 trillion. The US housing market has slowed very quickly, inventories are at all time highs so the demand for credit seems to be slowing.

Anyone with a guess where the US economy is heading?








[broken link removed]
 
The quaterly Daft report is now availabile from [broken link removed]

It seems rents are slightly up, House prices up and yeilds down.
Their house price index is based on asking price rather than selling price so it should be an early indicator of any changes in the market.

Interestingly they say that while the spending of the SSIA money will attract more renters to work in Ireland on the other hand some SSIA money will be used to buy investment property thus increasing supply.
 
Duplex said:
I’ve attached (below) a first hand account of a realtor’s quest to buy a new house for clients in Sacramento California. It seems that home builders are discounting heavily, and this is before the spring ‘season’. These guys (the builders) must be working off fat margins if the can take a hit of 20% on a new build.

Has anyone any thoughts on the sudden jump in the American Bond (Treasury) market yesterday. Though the yield curve remains inverted, it seems that some commentators are predicting that the Yen carry trade will be impacted by a rise in Yen rates in the near future.
(The carry trade makes money by borrowing cheaply in Japan and investing in Dollar debt which has a higher yield). The jump in 10 year bonds is likely to add to the cost of borrowing in the US.

I still can’t figure what the Fed is up to, the new Chairman is about to stop reporting one measure of money supply M3, he has made remarks in the past about printing more dollars (hence liquidating lots of American debt), The Chinese, Japanese and Saudi’s it seems are still buying dollar debt, the US Senate has yet to vote to increase the debt ceiling above $8.2 trillion. The US housing market has slowed very quickly, inventories are at all time highs so the demand for credit seems to be slowing.

Anyone with a guess where the US economy is heading?








[broken link removed]

he wont print loads of dollars,increasing money supply would increase inflation(i assume he's a monetarist) and decrease dollar,higher inflation would require higher interest rates and higher rates would hit economic growth.the reason he talked about printing money was to stop defaltion which was feared a while back,deflation is what had such a bad effect during the great depression.
 
glendale said:
Their house price index is based on asking price rather than selling price so it should be an early indicator of any changes in the market.
What's interesting in the current market is that the asking prices are 'phrased'
in a way that displays the real price IMO.

A House that you see with an asking price of 350-360 seems to be code for "up to 381k" etc.

A friend went along to a 2-bed house in donaghmede (sp?) a few months back. The asking price was 330k. Himself & his girlfiend bid straight away 381k (an amazing 51k leap) because "it will end up there anyway". (they had already been out-bid on other houses about a dozen times, I kid you not).

Just to show the level of interest/madness [delete as appropriate], a bid of 382k came in. (I shudder at the thought of breaking that stamp duty threshold of 7.5%..). However my friend's bid of 381 was accepted as he + his girlf were FTBs who wanted to move quickly whereas the other party were in a property chain.

What I think will be interesting to see when the inevitable slowdown ocours is.. I wonder what will be the 'acknowledged' price of his house.. will it be the asking (330k).. the eventual (381k), somewhere in between, or higher/lower.
 
soma said:
Just to show the level of interest/madness [delete as appropriate], a bid of 382k came in. (I shudder at the thought of breaking that stamp duty threshold of 7.5%..). However my friend's bid of 381 was accepted as he + his girlf were FTBs who wanted to move quickly whereas the other party were in a property chain.

If there were no other FTBs bidding perhaps the seller would've accepted a bid less than the 381k in the interest of a quick sale rather than the 382k bid, but they'll never know now since they jumped in with an initial bid of 381k.

I know of people who've done the same and I can't understand it (well I can understand it but the logic of it seems flawed). They are making value assessments based on stamp duty thresholds rather than a value estimation based on the property, location, etc.

 
glendale said:
The quaterly Daft report is now availabile from [broken link removed]

It seems rents are slightly up, House prices up and yeilds down.
Their house price index is based on asking price rather than selling price so it should be an early indicator of any changes in the market.

Interestingly they say that while the spending of the SSIA money will attract more renters to work in Ireland on the other hand some SSIA money will be used to buy investment property thus increasing supply.

What I found interesting was that they indicated that rents actually dropped from January to February but they said that this was due to seasonal factors. I am at a loss to try and think what these factors are. Also I think that this report is quite disappointing as it is not as granular as previous ones, I was particularly looking to the Sandyford area to see what the TTL was.
 
ivuernis said:
If there were no other FTBs bidding perhaps the seller would've accepted a bid less than the 381k in the interest of a quick sale rather than the 382k bid, but they'll never know now since they jumped in with an initial bid of 381k.

I know of people who've done the same and I can't understand it (well I can understand it but the logic of it seems flawed). They are making value assessments based on stamp duty thresholds rather than a value estimation based on the property, location, etc.


I did more or less the same a few weeks ago. Made a bid on the property on 860 and then next day upped it to 895. I was hoping to scare the competition away as I loved the house. After a week or two, I realised that I scared the wrong people away, ie the people who were going to drop out away and left the serious bidders in the game. I would hate to be doing it again as we have gone sale agreed on a house around 2 weeks ago.
 
The average return on pensions over the last 15 years was 850%.

And as always you have to bear in mind that past performance is just that; in the past. But if we take that as a benchmark, it follows that if property outperforms stocks over the next 15 years then the 'average' 450,000 euro investor property will be worth more than 3,825,000 euro in 15 years time.

So will 2 bedroom apartments in Dublin be selling for 4 million or more by 2021? If you answer yes and feel confident in your answer then you should take the plunge!

Personally I think the figure shows the insanity of the current property investor frenzy.
 
Duplex said:
Anyone with a guess where the US economy is heading?

Sideways? I have been an active investor coming on two decades now and right this minute I am utterly stumped as to where to put my money. I can't believe Im heading to 20% in gold... but I am.. cos its about all that makes any sense to me... above ALL I really hope the US avoids outright recession. I hope and pray the 'muddle through' scenario occurs, cos I think if US economy goes -ve it won't be minor or short-lived... it'll trigger so many 'corrections' all over the bl00dy place

Duplex, tell me everythings OK with the US economy :)
 
redo said:
It had an asking price of 800k and went eventually for 1,035k

Redo, I'm very curious since you've told us you've bought something very recently. This thread is mostly bearish but I assume you are optimistic about future price growth - it would be great to hear more about your views.

Cheers

Neffa
 
It was a family home for a new baby, not an investment. About 8-10 years ago, alot of people were commenting on the prices of houses. "You'd be mad to pay that much etc". 6-8 years ago, I bought a home for myself, to basically get on the ladder. I'm glad I did. However, if you think back to that time 8-10 years ago, you would probably think one had gone completly lula if they said they were investing in property, save for the people who had inherited houses or large sums of money.

The main reason that there are so many investors out there is due to the banks' willingness to throw money at you. In todays market, I find this hard to understand, 5 years ago, yes I could understand it. But in todays' market?

Dan McLauglin et al, are facing a dilemma. They probably see the market slowing down over the next couple of months, maybe years. Previously, when their lending practices were very tight, property investment was the place to be. They don't want to be seen as contradictory, on the one hand saying that the outlook for the property market is good, yet, reducing their exposure to the property maket with tighter money supply and more cautious lending practices. It is the banks that are controlling the market now, and they know it. It won't be long now before the banks start offering 50 year "Family Mortgages".

These banks know, sure IF the property market collapses, and we can't sell the houses by mortagage defaulters, in a declining market, the Government will bail us out, like the last time.
 
redo said:
These banks know, sure IF the property market collapses, and we can't sell the houses by mortagage defaulters, in a declining market, the Government will bail us out, like the last time.

How would the government bail us out? What happened last time?
 
These banks know, sure IF the property market collapses, and we can't sell the houses by mortagage defaulters, in a declining market, the Government will bail us out, like the last time.

Regardless of who is in power next time there is a recession, the Government will be one of the worst hit - as their income from stamp duty, CGT and VAT on discretionary purchases will plummet.

The Govt weren't too interested in stumping up even comparitively modest sums to bail out lossmaking Eircom shareholders so I wouldn't be hopeful that they would want to bail out stricken property investors even if they had the finances to do so.
 
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