Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

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I think IMF article pretty clear-you can take out it what u like depending on your perspective but I would share their sentiments on Irelands housing bubble
 
It looks like we're going to get a couple more rises to end of 2006.

Yep - the next interest rate rise looks likely to be on October 5th, bang in the middle of the autumn selling season. It's not looking good for sellers when you include increasing supply.

Quote from Ulster bank boss Cormac McCarthy in the Independent last week:
"There's one hell of a lot of supply coming onto the market"
 
Seriously, fair play to you. You'd be mad to take on the risks associated with such a purchase in the current climate.

So are you saying that AAM was the major factor in your decision?

Yes and No. Firstly i was buying for capital appreciation, knowing that rental yield ( i was going to continue to rent as its cheap) would not cover mortgage. I was even intent on flipping the property. Its was a very good 2 bed new build in phibs. But i believe that the 'interest' has gone from the market and that to buy high was totally inalien to any investment decision. AAM made that clear to me. Buy low, Sell high.

Rising interest rates, higher fuel costs, reliance on irish economy on construction played a big part. A visit from a German friend also highlighted the gross property prices. What my place was going to cost i could have bought a 4 apartment block in Hamburg with guaranteed 6% yield and possible capital appreciation on a german recovery. I have since signed on a german commercial property fund and whilst there are many different opinions on that i know that it is a safer investment.

But has the market stopped. IMO, the answer is yes. But i could be wrong.
 
Thanks for post phoenix - I think you made a good move.

A recent poster said that yields were justifiably higher in USA compared with Ireland because interest rates higher over there.

I would like to hear a logical reasoning why yields in Germany are almost double Ireland - no interest rate or currency risk, so why such a large gap?
 
Article from today's Irish Independent, apologies for the formatting:

If it is true and there is/will be a shortage of space in dublin in the next 5 years then I think dublin prices will hold quite well.
 
Any comments on the OECD anyone?

That article you linked to from the OECD ([broken link removed]) doesn't contain positive news for Ireland. They've been calling an overvaluation in the prices of Irish property for a long time and this analysis doesn't diverge from that. Under current conditions they are calling a leveling off or slight decline in prices (the famous soft landing).

However with every interest rate change or knock to the US economy (we're very dependant on them after all) we get closer to reaching some of the other possible outcomes that they mention. Here are the two that they mention in the report:
 
"When a company is struck off, it is very difficult for owners to sell their apartments, because there is no legal
body in existence to own the common areas."

I wouldn't want to be stuck with one of those apartments if I was trying to sell in a falling market!
 
I would like to hear a logical reasoning why yields in Germany are almost double Ireland - no interest rate or currency risk, so why such a large gap?

Logical reasoning would state that property should be getting at least 6-7 yields as property is illiquid and your capital is at risk. But this probably is best continued in the property investment section.
 
homeowner said:
There are currently 200,000 people living in apartments - most of them single or childless couples.

That is a potential market of 200,000 people looking to move into houses over the next few years if they get married and have kids (or 100,000 if they marry each other ) I'm not saying they *need* to have a house but most parents *want* to live in a house.
 
Article from today's Irish Independent, apologies for the formatting:


If it is true and there is/will be a shortage of space in dublin in the next 5 years then I think dublin prices will hold quite well.

That is why there are empty blocks in Sandymount, huge vacancy levels in the new build in areas such as Smithfield..... This is one of the myths propagated by the EA's which causes some investors to still believe that
there is a shortage...
 
Gawd that is one desperate looking apartment. And as for the price... you'd want to be insane.

You show that to any foreign friends and they will tell you without even knowing the market that property prices are just 'wrong' and are in-line for a correction.
 
But Phoenix - is there a greater risk to capital in Germany?

If not, then why is the yield double the yield available in Ireland?
 
You show that to any foreign friends and they will tell you without even knowing the market that property prices are just 'wrong' and are in-line for a correction.
Yes, they would laugh. However, many of the new apts built recently in the burbs will look like that over time. It's unnerving to thing apts like those 30 years ago were considered state of the art.
 
But Phoenix - is there a greater risk to capital in Germany?

If not, then why is the yield double the yield available in Ireland?

Think of it as current irish property is half the yield of what it should be.
 
If it is true and there is/will be a shortage of space in dublin in the next 5 years then I think dublin prices will hold quite well.

I don't think this is true at all. The Department of Environment, Heritage and Local Government have some interesting stats showing huge increases in zoned and serviced land in Dublin over the last 6 years:

SURVEY OF HOUSING ZONED SERVICED LAND AVAILABILITY

D/Laoghaire-Rathdown #Housing Units
30 Jun 00 -> 7,146
30 Jun 01 -> 9,526
30 Jun 02 -> 10,071
30 Jun 03 -> 12,191
30 Jun 04 -> 13,388
30 Jun 05 -> 19,777

Fingal #Housing Units
30 Jun 00 -> 34,721
30 Jun 01 -> 42,552
30 Jun 02 -> 37,115
30 Jun 03 -> 44,590
30 Jun 04 -> 35,623
30 Jun 05 -> 45,049

South Dublin #Housing Units
30 Jun 00 -> 12,410
30 Jun 01 -> 18,680
30 Jun 02 -> 25,640
30 Jun 03 -> 37,246
30 Jun 04 -> 34,022
30 Jun 05 -> 35,480

Dublin City Council #Housing Units
30 Jun 00 -> 12,740
30 Jun 01 -> 20,632
30 Jun 02 -> 23,874
30 Jun 03 -> 24,160
30 Jun 04 -> 29,160
30 Jun 05 -> 44,883


Dublin Total #Housing Units
30 Jun 00 -> 67,017
30 Jun 00 -> 91,390
30 Jun 00 -> 96,700
30 Jun 00 -> 118,187
30 Jun 00 -> 112,193
30 Jun 00 -> 145,189
 
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(stuff about shortage of family living space in Dublin)
If it is true and there is/will be a shortage of space in dublin in the next 5 years then I think dublin prices will hold quite well.

This was totally foreseeable and is in line with my general whinge that apartments were built for wealth generation purposes rather than for utility reasons. Given the vast amount of construction over the past four to seven years, there was a fantastic opportunity to build for the future and it has been totally squandered.

But does it matter? No, because *loads of* people made a killing on property, and sure, that's what it's all about, folks.

As for Dublin prices holding quite well, that's not strictly accurate. It depends on the property type and you can't generalise and say "Dublin will be alright" because Dublin covers a multitude, including 300K one bedroomed apartments close to no facilities, and lots of them.
 
That is why there are empty blocks in Sandymount, huge vacancy levels in the new build in areas such as Smithfield..... This is one of the myths propagated by the EA's which causes some investors to still believe that
there is a shortage...

The report was commissioned by dublin city council not EAs. I dont think they are saying there is a shortage of apartments, merely a shortage of living space for families in the city, hence the need to build large apartments suited for families like they have in most other major cities. If they did that it would take the pressure off the demand for 3 bed semis. I would certainly consider living in a large apt with my family if it was adaquetly built and serviced (and didnt cost a million yoyos).
 
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