Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

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gidxl03 said:
With the huge jump in prices during the first 6 months, crazy asking prices were inevitable. Everyone wants the best price
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I absolutely agree with you here. The jump in prices in the spring was crazy and unsustainable. That was the final push upwards. So people are asking for more realistic prices - that in itself is a change.
 
whathome said:
Scare tactics? Regularly falling asking prices are a fact. If people are scared by that, we can't help it.

Every time anyone provides evidence of a change in sentiment here, there are attempts to rubbish it. As I've said before, this is exactly what happened when prices started to fall in 2001. Only this time, there is nothing to stop the market falling further next year.
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While I would agree that people who don't see a crash coming are starting to get very defensive, I would venture to say that a few reduced asking prices in the higher end trader up market are not yet adequate proof that the market itself has turned. It isn't yet fact that prices are regularly falling, and they are absolutely not falling at entry level just yet.
 
whathome said:
Here's another asking price drop.

This time a period redbrick in Ranelagh!

Original price : €1,000,000


New listing, Reduced to €975,000
[URL="http://www.daft.ie/130551"]www.daft.ie/130551[/URL]
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Excellent detective work whathome!

Hmm interesting seems like only yesterday when we were told to expect to pay tens of thousands over the initial asking price.

Estate agents in this area (Dublin 6) were setting asking price low in order to start bidding wars. They are now having to reduce asking price in some instances in an attempt to get any interest.

I've been calling about some properties in the area and the estate agent seems so happy to have someone to talk to !

Autumn ought to be interesting!
 
Regularly falling asking prices are a fact - but a fact of what nature? That estate agents are over pricing or that there is no demand or that the vendors are insisting that they "try" 30k more than the agent has valued at? When someone comes on and says that a house beside them sells for 50k less than an equivalent house that sold 3 months ago - thats a fact.

I'm not saying no info of this kind - I stated "less" as I actually find these interesting - but unlike people here I'm not using it as a basis for an assesment on peoples current sentiment....

I do believe there is something to be scared of out there - things are very tight at the moment for all of the reasons mentioned - however, there is a need for focused genuine examples of sentiment change, not pointing at unrealistic methods of measurement.

I'm looking at sites in Laois to build - 6 months ago there were 9 sites advertised on DAFT, today there are 48 - Guess what, none of them affordable, just 39 more sites that annoy me.... Thats a fact... Such jumps on DAFT have been used as a basis for over supply, I'm in the trenches and the prices aint falling...
 
delboy159 said:
Regularly falling asking prices are a fact - but a fact of what nature? That estate agents are over pricing or that there is no demand or that the vendors are insisting that they "try" 30k more than the agent has valued at? When someone comes on and says that a house beside them sells for 50k less than an equivalent house that sold 3 months ago - thats a fact ....
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Keep an eye on this thread so.

http://www.askaboutmoney.com/showthread.php?t=33378
 
delboy159 said:
I'm looking at sites in Laois to build - 6 months ago there were 9 sites advertised on DAFT, today there are 48 - Guess what, none of them affordable, just 39 more sites that annoy me.... Thats a fact... Such jumps on DAFT have been used as a basis for over supply, I'm in the trenches and the prices aint falling...
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Rising inventory comes first....if the people who own those sites don't need to sell, then they may well pull from the market than bring down their prices. If they do, then ultimately, rising supply will have an impact on prices.

But it's not an instantaneous cause/effect. This is why there are varying estimates of between 18 months and 20 years for the property market to find its equilibrium, and why there are discussions of dead cat bounces.
 
Good article and objective as from IMF.

Basically the article asks the question will US suffer same housing crash as Ireland.
There been a bit presumptous here as crashed hasn't happened in Ireland yet but it will especially in a higher interest rate environment.

Supply is at all time highs(predicted 100k for 2006),affordability at record lows ,borrowing levels at record high and yields at record lows

The only argument is when crash will happen.
 
If the IMF is warning of a crash, then I would take the warning seriously.

To read a longer summary of the report;
[broken link removed]

However the warning is just that. The report also includes the following;

However, the IMF recognises the strong performance of the economy in recent years was one of the best in the world and it is forecasting strong growth in gross domestic product for this year and next of 5.5% and 5.8%, respectively. Gross national product (GNP) figures for the same period will be 5.4% and 6.2%. which are better than recent ESRI forecasts.
The report noted that employment growth was rapid and it reflected strong immigration and rising labour force participation.
"This remarkable performance reflected both good policies and fortunate circumstances," it said.
Tánaiste Mary Harney last night welcomed the IMF assessment.
"The IMF has acknowledged the continued impressive performance of Ireland's economy, which they say is characterised by high real gross national product growth, low unemployment levels and an inflation rate that is converging towards the EU average."

PS The iTuplip group were not premature about the Irish House Price crash. They simply asked, could the same WARNING apply to the US. Not the same as wondering if the same House Price crash could happen in the US.

PPS I someone around here getting defensive? I haven't noticed. Anyhow, I think that the AAM moderators have long since given up on this thread!
 
gidxl03 said:
Tánaiste Mary Harney last night welcomed the IMF assessment.
"The IMF has acknowledged the continued impressive performance of Ireland's economy, which they say is characterised by high real gross national product growth, low unemployment levels and an inflation rate that is converging towards the EU average."
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Mary, get your head out of the sand. The inflation rate is diverging from the EU average.
 
phoenix_n said:
I personally cancelled my proposed purchase of a new apartment in D7 this week owing to my current sentiment of the market. (hence why i am on this thread so much as i was researching the market). I may be wrong but i dont think I am.
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Seriously, fair play to you. You'd be mad to take on the risks associated with such a purchase in the current climate.

So are you saying that AAM was the major factor in your decision?
 
It looks like we're going to get a couple more rises to end of 2006.
Comments from ECB very clear which is unusual for them.

Problem for Ireland is that ECB were reducing rates due to economic problems in Germany/France.

If Ireland had been treated alone,then rates would have been a lot higher earlier thus reducing housing bubble that we're in at the moment.

The other factor unique to Irish market is the 25% increase in housing stock in the last 4 years-this is unique in Europe and perhaps the World
 
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