Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

[Firefly]

Thanks for your reply soma...my sentiments exactly...I'm working for the "safest" company I can and have a professional qual recognised globally, as does my wife, so we can work anywhere.
Have some property behind me (and can meet repayments comfortably) but am not prepared to start re-arranging the deck chairs when the Titanic goes down!

If prices do fall..can we get a consesus where hardest hit and where 1st? My money is on apts outside the M50 and outside the regional cities...these are not IMHO sustainable for longterm living as they sacrafice space but do not offer proximity to city centre.

Firefly

 

[Persius]

Article from today's Irish Independent, apologies for the formatting:
(stuff about shortage of family living space in Dublin)
If it is true and there is/will be a shortage of space in dublin in the next 5 years then I think dublin prices will hold quite well.

This was totally foreseeable and is in line with my general whinge that apartments were built for wealth generation purposes rather than for utility reasons. Given the vast amount of construction over the past four to seven years, there was a fantastic opportunity to build for the future and it has been totally squandered.

But does it matter? No, because *loads of* people made a killing on property, and sure, that's what it's all about, folks.

As for Dublin prices holding quite well, that's not strictly accurate. It depends on the property type and you can't generalise and say "Dublin will be alright" because Dublin covers a multitude, including 300K one bedroomed apartments close to no facilities, and lots of them.

I think there will be a shortage of quality accomodation in Dublin in 10 to 15 years. By that stage, the bulk of the population will be around the age to have teen and pre-teen kids. They will need large, family friendly accomodation. Relativly speaking there will be much fewer twenty-somethings and early thirty-somethings than today. The sort of people looking for 1 and 2 bed appartments.

So if you are in it for the long haul (or looking for your own PPR) and purchase a place in a decent Dublin location that will meet the needs of this key demographic in 10 or 15 years time, then I reckon you will do alright. But that doesn't mean that a poorly constructed 1 bed appartment outside the M50 will make you a tidy profit. In fact you may well sell it for less in 15 years than today's purchase price (all IMHO)

 

[phoenix_n]

If prices do fall..can we get a consesus where hardest hit and where 1st? My money is on apts outside the M50 and outside the regional cities...these are not IMHO sustainable for longterm living as they sacrafice space but do not offer proximity to city centre.

Firefly

e.g. Rockview in sandyford.

 

[joe sod]

It is unbelievable the number of postings on this thread. Nothing fires up so much opinion in ireland as property. Also alot of the postings are from new contributors who do not comment on other topics on this site.

 

[gidxl03]

Nice analogy Duplex, and no I don't and never will, own a helicopter!

I'd hire the pessimist, but if the dude is replacing expensive parts faster than they need to be I'd sack him and hire the optimist with the warning that he'll lose his job too if I crash and die.

I haven't given any advice. Clearly there is cause to watch this market very carefully (that's why I'm here afterall). I'm happy that I haven't given advice that has caused people to lose their hard earned cash. I'll break my rule and give one piece of advice; don't buy that awful apartment in Dublin with the well maintained common area that was featured earlier.

 

[phoenix_n]

It is unbelievable the number of postings on this thread. Nothing fires up so much opinion in ireland as property. Also alot of the postings are from new contributors who do not comment on other topics on this site.

From Paul McCartneys thread....

I have to say I have been intrigued with the break up of Paul McCartneys marriage with Heather Mills. I never had a very high opinion of her. I think she started to make McCartney look like an old fool and he started to become overly commercial in the last few years something he steered clear of for the previos 30.

I have no real interest in the above

 

[homeowner]

e.g. Rockview in sandyford.

What's wrong with Rockview?

Its 25 min walk to dundrum town centre and same for sandyford ind estate, there's a feeder bus to the luas which takes less than 10 mins. I know some people who live there and they love it.

 

[Bedsit]

Trends I see in Ireland is increasing population, pro-investment taxation policies, focus on the knowledge economy. If this prediction is incorrect, then my optimistic outlook for Irish property is misplaced.

"Focus on the knowledge economy" - I'd have to laugh. The recent spat of announcements from the minister for Enterprise and Employment have been to give companies millions of Euros in tax breaks and direct investment to setup shop here in the name of R&D. Do you really think that the likes of Intel and Google are doing any serious R&D here or just availing themselves of the low cost corporation tax regime that we have.

 

[whathome]

What's wrong with Rockview?

Its 25 min walk to dundrum town centre and same for sandyford ind estate, there's a feeder bus to the luas which takes less than 10 mins. I know some people who live there and they love it.

I think the areas discussion should be kept to the "Location, Location, Location" section on AAM

 

[miju]

That is a potential market of 200,000 people looking to move into houses over the next few years if they get married and have kids (or 100,000 if they marry each other ) I'm not saying they *need* to have a house but most parents *want* to live in a house.

and most probably will but given the option of renting the same house for far below what do you reckon they'd do?

i know what my family are currently doing and that certainly aint buying

 

[daveirl]

this will have wide reprocussions for the entire economy with almost all affected....what are you planning to do?

I work for an Irish company that does no business with Irish companies only foreign companies. My job is safe independently of what the Irish economy does.

 

[phoenix_n]

What's wrong with Rockview?

Its 25 min walk to dundrum town centre and same for sandyford ind estate, there's a feeder bus to the luas which takes less than 10 mins. I know some people who live there and they love it.

I have no reason to dislike it but just what i read from location,location there seems to be always hassles with parking and i think 25 min walk to city centre is better than 25 min walk to dundrum when it comes to apartments. But again i dont live there so dont know.

But this is not the thread for such discussions..........

(but if you really want to know of a place that i suspect will be the first hardest hit it will be 'prospect hill' in finglas)

 

[Persius]

"Focus on the knowledge economy" - I'd have to laugh. The recent spat of announcements from the minister for Enterprise and Employment have been to give companies millions of Euros in tax breaks and direct investment to setup shop here in the name of R&D. Do you really think that the likes of Intel and Google are doing any serious R&D here or just availing themselves of the low cost corporation tax regime that we have.

One of the big hidden risks IMHO. The US authorities could seriously start forcing these companies to prove that all the revenue they declare in Ireland is actually made in Ireland (and I'm pretty sure it isn't), and that they are not just using Ireland to avoid paying their fair share of US corporate tax. Such a scenario is more likely if US revenue intakes fall due to a recession there. If the multinationals were forced to admit that some of their revenue should actually be taxed in the US (or any third jurisdiction), then we will have lost one of our key competitive advantages in attracting and keeping these companies. No prizes for guessing the knock-on effect on the Irish economy in such a scenario.

And as for the knowledge economy bit, talk to techie people from some of the east and south-east asian countries. In many ways they are already miles ahead of us. Frightning really.

 

[Duplex]

Nice analogy Duplex, and no I don't and never will, own a helicopter!

I'd hire the pessimist, but if the dude is replacing expensive parts faster than they need to be I'd sack him and hire the optimist with the warning that he'll lose his job too if I crash and die.

My problem is that I have no faith in human nature when it comes to matters financial. I tend to the opinion that rational thought flys out the window episodically.

As famous economist John Kenneth Galbraith writes in his book "A Short History of Financial Euphoria":

"Those who had been riding the upward wave decide now is the time to get out. Those who thought the increase would be forever find their illusion destroyed abruptly, and they, also, respond to the newly revealed reality by selling or trying to sell. And thus the rule, supported by the experience of centuries: the speculative episode always ends not with a whimper but with a bang."

 

[Calina]

One of the big hidden risks IMHO. The US authorities could seriously start forcing these companies to prove that all the revenue they declare in Ireland is actually made in Ireland (and I'm pretty sure it isn't), and that they are not just using Ireland to avoid paying their fair share of US corporate tax. Such a scenario is more likely if US revenue intakes fall due to a recession there. I

Not all that hidden, to be honest. Symantec have already drawn attention on that front, I think.

But we're sliding off topic again. I actually think that issues on the property front will come ahead of other issues.

 

[JohnBoy]

Of course. You dont buy anything because its cheap relative to something else unless you actually need it.

When it comes to investing , you invest because of sound financial principles (i come from a business background).

And just at the moment Irish property is not a sound investment.

is this not the crux of the matter? the value of any investment is (in theory) based upon the present value of the stream of future cash flows. In the case of Irish residential property the low (or in some cases negative cash flows) make it an unnattractive investment.

Admittedly, the same could have be said for dotcom stocks or indeed any asset that is subject to a speculative mania.

In the end the fundamentals will reassert themselves.

 

[joe sod]

From Paul McCartneys thread....



I have no real interest in the above

I dont know what your point is phoenix. You pulled a posting of mine from a completely different section. If you have no interest in it why did you pull it from "letting off steam" and then declare you had no interest in it. At least it proves that I comment on alot of topics not just property

 

[whathome]

Interesting article from Chambers Ireland on Stock Vs Property

"with Dublin property values, for example, having grown by close to 400pc in the past 10 years. Such a high level of confidence in one particular asset class is rare and normally precedes a correction."

http://www.chambers.ie/index.php?id=379

 

[Calina]

I dont know what your point is phoenix. You pulled a posting of mine from a completely different section. If you have no interest in it why did you pull it from "letting off steam" and then declare you had no interest in it. At least it proves that I comment on alot of topics not just property

But that's completely irrelevant to the question at hand. Start another thread in LOS if you want to complain about people limiting their input to various property related threads. The fact that you might comment on a lot of other things doesn't necessarily de-value the contributions of people about property on a property related thread, I would have thought.

In any case, property is a major issue for a lot of people today. It is particularly so because a lot of people have spent a lot of money on it and a lot of other people are suggesting that that it may not be money well spent.

 

[homeowner]

Interesting article from Chambers Ireland on Stock Vs Property

"with Dublin property values, for example, having grown by close to 400pc in the past 10 years. Such a high level of confidence in one particular asset class is rare and normally precedes a correction."

http://www.chambers.ie/index.php?id=379

That article was written by a portfolio manager from a brokerage house. He is making a case for people to invest in the stock market. What do you expect him to say? This would be the equivalent of posting a link to an article written by an estate agent putting forward an argument for why its a good idea to invest in property. IMO it is biased because it comes from someone who has a vested interest in people investing in the stock market.