Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

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gidxl03 said:
Drops in asking prices have very little relevance. When you can show drops in SALE AGREED prices relative to other houses in the area that have already sold, then you have evidence to back up your argument of falling sentiment.
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Drops in asking prices suggest houses are not selling quite as fast as they used to be. Drops in asking price are definitely a change in sentiment.

It's very hard to show drops in sale agreed prices because people are unwilling to release that info. If it was widely available we might have a better fist on what the actual rises and average prices are. Currently they vary widely depending on whose data you use.
 
gidxl03 said:
Drops in asking prices have very little relevance. When you can show drops in SALE AGREED prices relative to other houses in the area that have already sold, then you have evidence to back up your argument of falling sentiment.
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Disagree. What you are asking for is to show you the flood rather than show you the storm clouds. Drops in asking price (thanks whathome for your research) along with rising stock levels is what is currently happening (not sentiment but hard facts) in the market.

Edit !

Ok i am coining this.(copyright pending)

The 'crash' (localised on those who bought within 2 years in poor locations and those where changing circumstanes forces sale) is gonna be called the 'Irish Flood'. Falling prices (rain!) coupled with rising stock levels (water).
 
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Just a point on all these house price drops that are being quoted. They are all very small in percentage terms and I don't think they point to anything like a house price crash. A €25000 price drop on a house of €1,000,000 is only 2.5%, that is nothing, especially when prices have risen by 25-40% over the last 2 years.

The tradition in buying property in Ireland, was that the bids used to come in below the asking price anyway, only in dublin in the last 4-5 years and the rest of the country in the last 18 months have prices been driven massively over their original asking price due to the mania that drove prices over the last few years.

Prices look to be settling down, which is a good thing, it by no means points to an impending crash.

With all the publicity about house price crashes in the media I think a lot of prospective buyers are just waiting to see things settle down a bit.


Peadar
 
StoppedClock said:
I'm trying to do some maths here re. Firfly's theory and want to know historically what is the normal ratio of inflation to interest rates i.e. is rate of inflation normally above or below interest rates?
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Inflation is variably below interest rates, the fact that you need to ask is an indication of how skewed the Irish economy has been for the last 5 years.

Firefly makes a great case for someone who wants to be a very wealthy OAP, I believe the pharohs had similar economic principles and were thus able to fill their pyramids with gold when they died, however your avareage joe soap looks at any investment on a short to medium term (less than 5 years). In the short to medium term Irish property 'could' be a pig of an investment using a starting point of today.
 
Duplex said:
The continuance of the liquidity bubble is dependent on the willingness of foreign governments to underwrite American consumer and government debt. The US is teetering on the brink, the economies that take up the baton after the Americans have finished their consumption binge will have cheaper workers willing to work in poorer conditions than their western counterparts. Survival of the fittest, most productive, innovative and hardworking.
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all good stuff agrred and good points, but how long's the US been teetering on the brink now? And the $ is still the emerging worlds de facto reserve currency, no matter what we see about reserve banks reducing $ weightings. And no matter what we all hear about emerging markets taking over, there's little sign that they're becoming the innovators and entrepreneurs of the future just yet. When a larry page or bill gates comes out of india or china then maybe but at the moment, it's still largely cheap human capital. Intellectual capital lives in the states and will continue to do so. Asian innovators will continue to relocate there to germinate their businesses so the dollar is dead story will take many more years to play out...bit like the western property market I reckon
 
Peadar said:
Prices look to be settling down, which is a good thing, it by no means points to an impending crash.
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Thanks Peader, we're discussing a change in sentiment here.
Falling asking prices indicates a very big change in sentiment.
 
Persius said:
For the sake of discussion, some bullish arguements on Irish property

1) One of the reasons why it really "is different" in Ireland (mainly thinking of the cities) is the low density of housing. It has been said previously that the price someone pays for a house is not just the price of the time and materials that went into building the house, but also the price of the site. In a low density city such as Dublin, the price of sites (at least those in centralish locations) will be higher per household than the price of an equivalent site in a higher density city such as New York.

2) Specuvestors who were in it for the quick buck could be easily convinced to take a "long term view", and not try to sell in a flat market. Considering our obsession with property you could easily imagine this sort of conversation between a specuvestor (S) and his family/friends/bank manager (F) etc

S: The price of my investment property has plateaued out. There are no more capital gains to be got. I think it's time to sell.
F: Now mighn't be the best time to sell. You may have to accept a lower price than normal. Remember property is the best investment class in the long term. You should hold on to it as a pension.
S: Yeah, but the rent I'm getting isn't covering my mortgage. I have to contribute €500 myself every month
F: But this is standard for any type of investment. If you were in a pension fund you would also have to contribute a sum of money every month. With property, the tennant contributes more than half of that money. Besides rents will rise over time.
S: So you think I should continue ploughing money into my property
F: Sure. In the long term, prices will go up again. In 25 years it'll be worth a fortune.
S: Yeah, maybe you're right

3) ...

Opinions?
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very realistic Persius, great post. While there will be some pain, it just won't be pain enough to create this plunge. And property investors are lacking that alternative screaming at them that says this is a waste of money, put it here instead.
 
Peadar said:
With all the publicity about house price crashes in the media I think a lot of perspective buyers are just waiting to see things settle down a bit.

Peadar
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Exactly. Interest replaced by Fear. But for those who have to sell, and those who are waiting for things to settle down prices will have to fall in order to sell.

Dont forget that many people made around 200-500k on houses so they can sell (if they have to) at a reduced price but still realising excellent gains. So dont be surprised at 100k been knocked off houses. Its only if you bought late does this seem excessive.
 
fatmanknows said:
1.Won a contract .........means to develope on behalf of a client.
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They're essentially being paid a lucrative sum to build a development with no risk to themselves. Sounds like a good deal to me!

fatmanknows said:
2. Be it Commercial or Residential Property......the coming correction won't discriminate.
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Poppycock. The property market is in no way homogenous. We've recently sold a three bedroomed townhouse in Ballina that was bought back in 1990 just before the market started to take off. Taking inflation into account, it probably only appreciated 15-20% in real terms (attributable to higher incomes rather than any sort of property bubble). The reason? No one viewed the market for property in that area as speculatory. I never knew a single person in the town who bought a property there for capital appreciation.

As for "the coming correction".

There's no such thing as a sure thing. By closing your eyes completely to the idea of a soft-landing, you're proving yourself to be just as blind and ignorant as the property bears out there.
fatmanknows said:
Back to school Raskolnikov.
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Don't be so patronising, you neither have the wit nor the intelligence to pull it off.
 
IMO, asking prices are much more of a sales strategy than a reflection of sentiment. E.g. Sales strategy : House Prices increased by 10% in the first 6 months of this year. I'm now about to sell, so why not add on yet another 10%, then a few weeks later drop it by 5% and claim REDUCED PRICE.

Analysis of Asking Prices is really just 'noise of the moment' whereas no body seems interested in reflecting on the analysis provided by the boring old OECD. This is what guides my sentiment.
 
whathome said:
They're not claiming REDUCED PRICE, they're trying to hide it!

It's only through using google's cache that we're spotting reduced asking prices.
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Exactly.

I can hear the patter of rain on the roof. :)
 
Highlighting a REDUCED PRICE is one strategy. Another strategy for getting the best price is equally simple: start at a high one and slowly come down (and at the same time, try to disguise the fact that you have been chancing your arm!).

I'm not asking for you to show me a "flood" of houses than sold for less than the AMV, just 4 or 5 would show the beginning of a possible change in sentiment. I agree that it is a pity that Ireland has less data than say the UK market.

With the huge jump in prices during the first 6 months, crazy asking prices were inevitable. Everyone wants the best price.

Any comments on the OECD anyone?
 
Reduced asking prices are not a realistic assesment of public sentiment.

You don't know what the value of that house was last year or what equivalent houses in the area have sold for recently... I bought a house 30 months ago. It started at 310k, then dropped to 270k and finally went for 250k. I knew it would never go for 310k - it was crazy, the fact that the price dropped wasn't a reflection on house prices falling it was that the Estate Agent chanced his arm - it didn't work and he then went with a realistic...

A lot of house sales over the past 5 years in all parts of Ireland have involved price drops - don't over anayse it. My 310k to 250k was almost a 20% drop in property prices based on your arguement that asking prices are in anyway fact forming.

Besides property isn't a formula driven product thats on a shelf and sells at a price. If your neighbour sells his house and is lucky that 3/4 bidders are keen, it might add on an unrealistic 10k (or more). When you go to sell there might only be one interested buyer - you dodn't make quite as much - thats life. This can't be read into as public sentiment changing etc. it's just free market economics...

Less of the unrealistic scare tactics - real facts or nothing at all....
 
delboy159 said:
Less of the unrealistic scare tactics - real facts or nothing at all....
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Scare tactics? Regularly falling asking prices are a fact. If people are scared by that, we can't help it.

Every time anyone provides evidence of a change in sentiment here, there are attempts to rubbish it. As I've said before, this is exactly what happened when prices started to fall in 2001. Only this time, there is nothing to stop the market falling further next year.
 
delboy159 said:
Reduced asking prices are not a realistic assesment of public sentiment.

A lot of house sales over the past 5 years in all parts of Ireland have involved price drops - don't over anayse it. My 310k to 250k was almost a 20% drop in property prices based on your arguement that asking prices are in anyway fact forming.

Less of the unrealistic scare tactics - real facts or nothing at all....
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The market that i refer to is houses bought in the last 2 years and of all the houses that i have bidded on in the last year not one went below asking price. It does happen, i am sure, but not enough to warrant any comment.

Interesting comment about scare tactics. That would point that there is something to be scared of. Inflated prices, investors over-commiting, buying for capital appreciation, falling rents, high density apartments, cheap commuter belt houses.
 
delboy159 said:
Less of the unrealistic scare tactics - real facts or nothing at all....
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Yes from now on please restrict yuor posts only to facts listed on [broken link removed]

No more conjecture or opinion or debate. ;)
 
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