Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

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thewatcher said:
Whatever about the older generation,it's nothing as deep as that with the younger generation.Greed plain and simple "can't lose" etc.
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Yup, we're in a market driven by greed alright.

The question is, how soon will greed change to fear? History tells us that this can happen very rapidly indeed. I don't see any real reason why this change in sentiment will not occur and will not be rapid. Many reasons for changing sentiment have been given already along the lines of: interest rate rises, rising energy costs, change of government, stagnant rental market, poor infrastructure, corruption, rapidly increasing inventory, media hype, availability of cheap money from the european banks, Irish economic threats, economic reliance on house-builing and cheap imported labour, transient immigrant population, Irish obsession with land-owning, etc.

I have not heard any solid reasoning on here to counteract all of these very good arguments. Therefore, I can only conclude (in the absence of any solid and proportionate counter-reasoning), that the market will enevitably go fearful as the screw gets tighter and tighter and a critical mass of people begin to cop themselves on.
 
thewatcher said:
Whatever about the older generation,it's nothing as deep as that with the younger generation.Greed plain and simple "can't lose" etc.
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Maybe the younger generation are just looking for somewhere to live. Old-fashioned idea, I know...
 
autumnleaf said:
Maybe the younger generation are just looking for somewhere to live. Old-fashioned idea, I know...
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You can't live in 2 houses or a house and a apartment,or did i miss something.....
 
autumnleaf said:
Maybe the younger generation are just looking for somewhere to live. Old-fashioned idea, I know...
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Quite a few of them are, but they can't afford suitable accommodation so quite a few of them buy what they can afford on the assumption of being able to trade up.

It's not wise and yet it's hard not to in the face of "you can't lose on property" and "you have to get your foot on the ladder".

If you look at what is actually being built you'll know that people are buying places that they will absolutely not be able to live in long term even if they are single.

On the other hand, quite a lot of them are looking to get rich without actually doing any work. They will scream when they get their fingers burned.
 
gidxl03 said:
Stock markets have done well as economies have expanded. Oil is essential for this to happen. The trend of the last 60 years of strong stock market growth may not continue as oil reaches 200$ a barrel. At 80$ a barrel we can still fly to Italy for 50 euro. It is still dirt cheap!
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Disagree with most of what you are saying gidxl03 but you could well be right on the mark with this one. We are in completely uncharted territory due to the oil situation and stocks may no longer be a good long term investment. However what hits stocks badly will hit Irish property far worse so having any investment in Irish property (except for PPR) is questionable.
 
Calina said:
Quite a few of them are, but they can't afford suitable accommodation so quite a few of them buy what they can afford on the assumption of being able to trade up.
It's not wise and yet it's hard not to in the face of "you can't lose on property" and "you have to get your foot on the ladder".
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Agree on this, I've seen it myself. I've resisted the temptation to "get on the property ladder" because at the moment I can only afford the bottom rung and I don't want to risk that falling out from under me.

gidxl03 said:
At 80$ a barrel we can still fly to Italy for 50 euro. It is still dirt cheap!
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Flying is currently dirt cheap because airline fuel is not taxed. This situation may not last.
 
autumnleaf said:
Flying is currently dirt cheap because airline fuel is not taxed. This situation may not last.
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Not to mention the fact that all the major airlines lock in fuel prices for a couple of years in advance (except ryanair, but they were forced to do it recently) and as a result, we have not yet seen the real effect of rising fuel costs on the airlines. Wait for these contracts run out and see what happens to air fares.
 
darex said:
Disagree with most of what you are saying gidxl03 but you could well be right on the mark with this one. We are in completely uncharted territory due to the oil situation and stocks may no longer be a good long term investment. However what hits stocks badly will hit Irish property far worse so having any investment in Irish property (except for PPR) is questionable.
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I have (PPR) a property in Dublin worth around 600k , owe 285k only bought it 3 yrs ago. I think I should sell , get the equity safe and rent. My mortgage is 1500 per month - i could rent the same thing for 1200 per month - and I think property prices are going to decrease due to the massive supply of new property and interest rate hikes. Any opinions????
 
My mortgage is 1500 per month - i could rent the same thing for 1200 per month
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Tough call, you need to ascertain the interest element before you can compare rent and mortgage repayments.
If you get out now and prices increase by another 10% in the next 12 months (not an unlikely scenario) you lose 60K, would that sicken you? It might, or you could be phiposophical about it all - the danger is of course if prices go up a little more you have difficulty getting back on the property ladder again. The other things to consider are transaction costs, ie stamp duty.
Truth to tell, if you are somewhere that you're happy to stay in for 10yrs, i would not advise selling.
 
murray said:
I have (PPR) a property in Dublin worth around 600k , owe 285k only bought it 3 yrs ago. I think I should sell , get the equity safe and rent. My mortgage is 1500 per month - i could rent the same thing for 1200 per month - and I think property prices are going to decrease due to the massive supply of new property and interest rate hikes. Any opinions????
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I wish I could sell to rent. Currently selling PPR and rental property to buy a bigger house. Despite the advantages of renting, Mrs. Whathome will not allow it.
 
murray said:
I have (PPR) a property in Dublin worth around 600k , owe 285k only bought it 3 yrs ago. I think I should sell , get the equity safe and rent. My mortgage is 1500 per month - i could rent the same thing for 1200 per month - and I think property prices are going to decrease due to the massive supply of new property and interest rate hikes. Any opinions????
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Well I can't see rents going up and mortgages certainly will so the differential will only increase in future months
 
whathome said:
I wish I could sell to rent. Currently selling PPR and rental property to buy a bigger house. Despite the advantages of renting, Mrs. Whathome will not allow it.
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So you think it is a good idea to 'leave the table' then ?? (I have a very understanding Mrs.Murray !!)
 
beattie said:
Well I can't see rents going up and mortgages certainly will so the differential will only increase in future months
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To be honest, I'm not sure how good a call that is. It's dependent on a lot of people who currently let properties in the short term not deciding to cash in their chips. If you're a sensible business person, you may well want to cash in your chips.

What may be interesting is if buyers dry up, how many speculators try to offset their losses by renting out previously unoccupied property.

I don't want to scaremonger on the rental front - I rent myself - but I wouldn't necessarily be certain that we'd avoid a blip while the property purchase market is sorting itself out.
 
murray said:
So you think it is a good idea to 'leave the table' then ?? (I have a very understanding Mrs.Murray !!)
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Yes - I think it's a good idea. Certainly a decision not to be taken lightly and even though the market is starting to unravel, it may fall for a few years before a sustainable recovery. You might be away from the table for a while. As 2Pack says - there is no harm in taking a profit.
 
Regarding whether you should sell at 600k depends on where the house is...ie proximity to dem phone boxes on Grafton Street and also your medium term needs...are you staying in Dublin / happy with your house...if you are, then I wouldn't sell as the high transaction costs of re-entry are the big gamble here.
Your mortgage is 1,500 - is this IO? If not then the interest portion is comparible to the rental amount of 1,200 and not the entire 1,500.

On a side issue, can we get a list of view points as follows:
Name FIREFLY
Age 31
Marital Status MARRIED
Home Owner / Renter OWNER
Buy a house now or not BUY

to see if this can throw up something..even though there has been a lot of hits on this thread the contributers are a tiny number...
Firefly
 
Glenbhoy said:
Tough call, you need to ascertain the interest element before you can compare rent and mortgage repayments.
If you get out now and prices increase by another 10% in the next 12 months (not an unlikely scenario) you lose 60K, would that sicken you? It might, or you could be phiposophical about it all - the danger is of course if prices go up a little more you have difficulty getting back on the property ladder again. The other things to consider are transaction costs, ie stamp duty.
Truth to tell, if you are somewhere that you're happy to stay in for 10yrs, i would not advise selling.
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Fair point 'Glenbhoy' - it's a top floor apartment - no lift - we are looking towards having a family..... - wont stay in an apartment for 10yrs , the plan would be ; (hope prices pull back!!) and buy a house in a year or 2.....
I really appreciate your veiwpoint, thanks.....
 
whathome said:
Yes - I think it's a good idea. Certainly a decision not to be taken lightly and even though the market is starting to unravel, it may fall for a few years before a sustainable recovery. You might be away from the table for a while. As 2Pack says - there is no harm in taking a profit.
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It would be a ballsy decision to sell your PPR and sit out a forecasted storm. Problem with property is that everyone knows you're selling (unlike a private bank account) including your family, neighbours, friends etc. - there's a lot of social pressure to be seen to be getting ahead in life and wouldn't it be awful embarrassing for middle-class-Joe to have to endure the gossip from making a bad decision?

I would say go for it. It's all relative after all and no matter what way you look at it, 600k will get you a very long way in the global property stakes.
 
whathome said:
Yes - I think it's a good idea. Certainly a decision not to be taken lightly and even though the market is starting to unravel, it may fall for a few years before a sustainable recovery. You might be away from the table for a while. As 2Pack says - there is no harm in taking a profit.
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It would be a ballsy decision to sell your PPR and sit out a forecasted storm (most people aren't in a position to do this so you're unique in this sense). Problem with property is that everyone knows you're selling (unlike a private bank account) including your family, neighbours, friends etc. - there's a lot of social pressure to be seen to be getting ahead in life and wouldn't it be awful embarrassing for middle-class-Joe to have to endure the gossip from making a bad decision?

I would say go for it. It's all relative after all and no matter what way you look at it, 600k will get you a very long way in the global property stakes.
 
Name : REDO
Age : 34
Marital Status : MARRIED
Owner / Renter : OWNER
Advice : Investors sell, Trade upers buy, FTB hold
 
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