Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

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Duplex said:
I think quite a few people, (including that lady from CB Ellis) are in for a shock.

The only long term study on real estate price growth in real terms that I'm aware of was undertaken in Holland. The study examined property prices in Amsterdam over a 300 year period, the average annual rise in prices in the period, 0.3%.

People discuss the Irish property market as if the Irish economy was a self sufficient entity removed from the vagaries of cyclical economic growth and contraction. In fact Ireland is almost uniquely exposed to a global contraction in trade.

If any one is interested in what lies in store for the Irish property market/economy (the same thing essentially) then look no further than the US. You know the nation that drags us along on its economic coat tails; its one year further down the debt bubble correction trail than us.

Edit

Have a butchers at this, not a Goldilocks perspective I'm afraid.

http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini
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im sure if the woman has a brain in her head she knows its unsustainable and crash likely but its her job to spin it that way. She fails to address the fact that the economic conditions are being generated by construction (to a large degree) and public service and not from the essential export sector of economy,this self fuffilling economic activity can only last so long before fundamentals and reality hit home.
 
Firefly - Show us even one property on myhome in dublin that if rented would cover an interest only mortgage plus the maintenace insurance and empty periods that all landlords encounter and thats even ignoring the stamp duty on purchase.
 
redo said:
FF know that there is a direct relationship between the sale of new builds and pary donations. I would expect something to stimulate the FTB market in the next budget, keeping the gravy train running.
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I was refering to "security of tenure" or the lack of it so to speak.While it has improved a bit in the last few years (as in the landlord can't turn up in the middle of the night and tell you to pack your bags) it's still a joke compared to continental europe.
I can see why people don't want to raise familys in private rented accomodation,because of the lack of security and that's fair enough,that is the governments fault fair and square.The irish wouldn't be half as mad on property,if the investors/speculators had half the responsibilities they would on the continent.

The biggest joke of the whole thing is you can have two houses side by side in an estate,one given to the council as part of the social and affordable provisions rented to a council tenant who can only be got ridden of, if they cause anti-social behaviour and the other one rented to a private tenant with barely any rights at all.It wouldn't happen in Germany !.
 
Will have a look for said property that when rented will cover int on mortgage...but can't at the mo - sneakily logging every few mins at work!

Whilst supply is shooting upwards, it's not in the areas I'm looking at - 3 bed houses in Kimmage.

I totally agree that buying out in the middle of nowhere is madness as an investment property....but this is akin to buying shares in a dead-tech IT company...we can't just say property is better than shares vice-versa...each investment has to be judged on it's own merits.
I like the point re: opportunity cost...hadn't factored that in

The other thing about property investment & leverage...even with the hassle with tenants etc, it is a very low maintenace business - any other business (and it is a business in my book) requireing 500k, you'd need to give up your current job. With property investment you don't.

Firefly
 
Property ownership is a LOT more labour intensive than share ownership.
 
thewatcher said:
I was refering to "security of tenure" or the lack of it so to speak.While it has improved a bit in the last few years (as in the landlord can't turn up in the middle of the night and tell you to pack your bags) it's still a joke compared to continental europe.
I can see why people don't want to raise familys in private rented accomodation,because of the lack of security and that's fair enough and that is the governments fault fair and square.The irish wouldn't be half as mad on property,if the investors/speculators had half the responsibilities they would on the continent.
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Is it really that bad to have to move every 3/4 years? If you rent a place in same area your kids still have their friends/schools etc nearby. The legislation is better now than a few years ago and will only improve.
 
Firefly said:
Will have a look for said property that when rented will cover int on mortgage...but can't at the mo - sneakily logging every few mins at work!
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You'll be looking for a long time.
 
Firefly said:
Will have a look for said property that when rented will cover int on mortgage...but can't at the mo - sneakily logging every few mins at work!

Whilst supply is shooting upwards, it's not in the areas I'm looking at - 3 bed houses in Kimmage.

I totally agree that buying out in the middle of nowhere is madness as an investment property....but this is akin to buying shares in a dead-tech IT company...we can't just say property is better than shares vice-versa...each investment has to be judged on it's own merits.
I like the point re: opportunity cost...hadn't factored that in

The other thing about property investment & leverage...even with the hassle with tenants etc, it is a very low maintenace business - any other business (and it is a business in my book) requireing 500k, you'd need to give up your current job. With property investment you don't.

Firefly
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Thanks for posting your views Firefly I appreciate where your coming from. I'm curious on what your view is of the wider economic context, the background against which you are basing your investment decisions.


Edit

I cant find the original study on line but an article from The IHT covers that long term study of the Amsterdam market if anyone's interested.

[broken link removed]
 
Duplex said:
Thanks for posting your views Firefly I appreciate where your coming from. I'm curious on what your view is of the wider economic context, the background against which you are basing your investment decisions.
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To be fair Firefly seems to know what he/she is doing.
I know 3 "landlords", not a bean in stamp duty paid,not a bean in tax on rental income paid,the prtb "what's that ?" :rolleyes:
 
Many of the people buying investments today dont contemplate global economics despite fact we are one of the most open/globalised economies in world and will suffer most in a global slowdown as many analysts are forecasting. We have been lucky in last 15 years that not many global shock have occured that affected us but this is bound to change. Remember the original Tiger economies that crashed in late nineties.Add in the fact we have lost all monetary control and this economy is precarious.
 
Live Register Figures

Its interesting to see how different reports can put a completely different spin on the same peice of news.

[FONT=Arial, Verdana, Helvetica]Live Register falls 2,500 in July - RTE[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Verdana, Helvetica]http://www.rte.ie/business/2006/0804/CSO.html[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, Verdana, Helvetica]Number on Live Register up 3.6% in July - Irish Times[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Verdana, Helvetica][broken link removed][/FONT]
 
thewatcher said:
To be fair Firefly seems to know what he/she is doing.
I know 3 "landlords", not a bean in stamp duty paid,not a bean in tax on rental income paid,the prtb "what's that ?" :rolleyes:
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I can't help but think these people are the Revenue's "Rainy Day fund" that they will go after when the tax revenue dries up.
 
Firefly said:
Whilst supply is shooting upwards, it's not in the areas I'm looking at - 3 bed houses in Kimmage.

I
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3 bed in kimmage? whats the yield on that after maintenace, insurance, taxes, a charge for your time managing/renting/fixing the property,stamp duty,empty periods etc???? Very little i'd expect ,then you have your interest to pay so you'll be paying your own cash in every month to own an albatross. There might not be an infinite supply of 3 bed houses in dublin but theres not an infinite line of credit either, do you not realise that demand is less after every price rise and interest rate rise due to the amount a person/couple can borrow and afford?
 
I try not to predict the economy in general because I don't have enough information, nor am I suitably qualified.
Sorry to harp on about property as the be all and end all, but even with increased supply I can't see the Irish love affair with property coming to an end any time soon. To get a good insight into Irish psyche, go to Xtravision tonight and rent out "The Field".
Firefly
 
whizzbang said:
I can't help but think these people are the Revenue's "Rainy Day fund" that they will go after when the tax revenue dries up.
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They'll be grand so long as they have a 'good' accountant with connections (I know one person who's avoided a stamp duty bill by using such accountants). It's rampant in the industry, so much so that revenue are overwhelmed trying to track down such people. Even still, revenue officials are only humans and the brown envelope culture still pays even though people might not want to believe it (I'm talking from my own experience of course).

Point taken though that Revenue could use this as a "Rainy Day fund". But I'd say you can safely say you'll get away with it - by revenue opening this can of worms, they'd undermine their own integrity. A nod and a wink and a quiet chat will keep troubles at bay.
 
Regarding houses in Kimmage, I agree that I will face negative cashflow until I sell, but I believe that this area will appreciate when the FTBs buying all those small apts now need/want more space...so it's a cap appreciation play.
One of the areas I have a problem with shares though (and sorry if I'm going off-point), is that if you keep adding to a set portfolio of shares and then sell some, the Revenue deems the shares you sold to come from the first batch you bought...thereby resulting in a higher CGT.
Firefly
 
Firefly said:
To get a good insight into Irish psyche, go to Xtravision tonight and rent out "The Field".
Firefly
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It is a good analogy but it seems the property bulls could experience the investments going over the cliff when the bubble here bursts which will have very serious knock on effects for the rest of the economy
 
CelloPoint said:
Point taken though that Revenue could use this as a "Rainy Day fund". But I'd say you can safely say you'll get away with it - by revenue opening this can of worms, they'd undermine their own integrity. A nod and a wink and a quiet chat will keep troubles at bay.
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By revenue not opening said can of worms, they will prove that they have no integrity to lose.

Sorry. Your attitude sickens me.
 
So, according to a property bull, the analogy implies that we have a good property market that we can rely on into the future because we are a nation of ignoramuses and that won't change?
 
good example! A better example might be Oliver Stone's Wall Street (followed perhaps by Angela's Ashes). Fair play to you for sticking your head into the bear cave by the way.
 
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