Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

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What's the difference between a chimp and an estate agent?

One sits around scratching it's privates making screeching noises while picking fleas from it's buddies. The other is a monkey :D
 
One for Andy and the Bulls...

What would it take for a 50% decrease in house prices in Ireland? Recession? Invasion by a foreign power? The election of an anti immigration platform? Use your immaginations! ;)
 
ajapale is going to start giving out soon if we don't get back on topic.

Realistically, I think that things are in general plateau-ing at the moment. This is based on watching the market in Swords where inventory has risen quite a bit in the past couple of months but prices haven't dropped significantly. So my interpretation of that is that perhaps the expectation of continued capital appreciation is pretty much gone for the moment but the flipside of increased inventory - ie competing for fewer buyers - hasn't broken through just yet on a general scale.
 
whathome said:
The whole high risk = high return thing is rubbish.
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Agreed, but given a choice of investments the return on a high risk investment must be greater for you to choose it over a low risk one. Therefore if a low risk / high return opportunity exists investors will pile in - driving up the price until it becomes low risk / low return.
 
Calina said:
Realistically, I think that things are in general plateau-ing at the moment. This is based on watching the market in Swords where inventory has risen quite a bit in the past couple of months but prices haven't dropped significantly. So my interpretation of that is that perhaps the expectation of continued capital appreciation is pretty much gone for the moment but the flipside of increased inventory - ie competing for fewer buyers - hasn't broken through just yet on a general scale.
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I'm following that market too and I see this also. In fact in my estate asking prices for the new supply on the market this week seem to be slightly creeping up in the aftermath of the metro announcement. As to whether they'll achieve asking price I've no idea.
 
partisan said:
Therefore if a low risk / high return opportunity exists investors will pile in - driving up the price until it becomes low risk / low return.
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That's not true - you're relying in theory on an efficient market. Markets are certainly not efficient which creates opportunities where assets are undervalued and sometimes grossly overvalued. Eventually the market price for an asset will correct, the key thing is to know what you're at so you are not the fool who pays too much.
 
Arthur Daley said:
I'm following that market too and I see this also. In fact in my estate asking prices for the new supply on the market this week seem to be slightly creeping up in the aftermath of the metro announcement. As to whether they'll achieve asking price I've no idea.
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With particular regard to Boroimhe, I saw a 2 bed apartment arrive on the listings yesterday or the day before (there's about six or seven similar on sale in the estate at the moment I think) showing the first rise in asking price that I had seen for a while. I was tempted to ring up and ask why, when there were several similar properties on sale in the 330-335K bracket, this one might be worth 340K. I haven't been watching the three beds so much but I think they are at around the levels they were touching in April. I think the Metro had long been priced in so I have some doubts that the recent announcement will change much. Interestingly I also noticed that some of those apartments in Glasnevin/Finglas are now less expensive than similar-ish in Swords. Given a choice between city and Swords I would normally choose city, although not being totally au fait with Finglas I'd have a good look at the area first.
 
whizzbang said:
What would it take for a 50% decrease in house prices in Ireland? Recession? Invasion by a foreign power? The election of an anti immigration platform? Use your immaginations! ;)
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A drop in prices more than 20% will be mean a domino is set in motion and the whole thing comes tumbling down. Let's be honest with ourselves this has been on the cards for years here now.

If lenders can't expand credit any further with another wheeze like 100% LTV, 40 year terms etc., and the VI's aren't organised and co-ordinated in shutting down new build and land supply quick enough the 10% falls will rapidly turn into 50%.
 
whizzbang said:
One for Andy and the Bulls...

What would it take for a 50% decrease in house prices in Ireland? Recession? Invasion by a foreign power? The election of an anti immigration platform? Use your immaginations! ;)
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50%? This post will be deleted if not edited immediately...interest rates at 1980's levels so mortgages were unaffordable for almost everyone. It would have to be some recession to bring about that type of collapse.
 
Calina said:
Given a choice between city and Swords I would normally choose city, although not being totally au fait with Finglas I'd have a good look at the area first.
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You always get some kickback from these announcements/developments. I was surprised how much prices went up along the line once Luas was operational. You imagine it's priced in but then....

I know Whathome pointed out a price drop the far side of Swords to me. Could never consider moving from Boroimhe to the wild west in Finglas.......:eek:
 
Heard the cheques of a major irish builder ( with developements here and abroad) are being returned........wonder who it is ?
 
Andy Doof said:
50%? This post will be deleted if not edited immediately...interest rates at 1980's levels so mortgages were unaffordable for almost everyone. It would have to be some recession to bring about that type of collapse.
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Would mortages have to be unaffordable for almost everyone?would,say, 20% of people not being able to afford their mortgage not be enough to set the ball rolling? 20% of properties going on the market in a short amount of time and not selling could lead to a major turn in sentiment that could effect all areas of the market?
 
Don't think these articles from the Indo have been pointed out yet today.... talk about sensational scare-mongering!!! Seriously, what would a supposedly neutral newspaper carry this sort of stuff unless it had an agenda.... I mean, the first article is an essay not a news piece, and the second has supposedly been written by a very learned young man who seems to hang out with economists on a daily basis and thinks he can bend the ear of the Minister for Finance!! "Now is the time Minister Cowan" indeed!

Sometimes a decision isn't enough

http://www.unison.ie/irish_independent/stories.php3?ca=303&si=1712767&issue_id=14812

Property - our trendy obsession

http://www.unison.ie/irish_independent/stories.php3?ca=303&si=1712787&issue_id=14812http://www.unison.ie/irish_independent/stories.php3?ca=303&si=1712767&issue_id=14812
 
I saw that article by the 16 year old kid earlier...truly bizarre! Get a life sunshine.
On the interest rate side of things, would I be right in thinking "stress testing" was only really brought in say 2 years ago?
There must be a hell of a lot of people who were lent money recklessly bty the banks who are struggling now.
Incidently, got an NIB pack today...LTV happy days!
 
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