Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

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Andy Doof said:
Wanting a crash is wishing ill on other people...not being able to afford a home is a better than large numbers falling into difficulty and perhaps losing their homes
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Thats easy for you to say with your multiple properties! I dont want anybody to lose their home but i didnt ask them to pay a highly inflated price without some foresight either!!
 
lol...have to go unfortunately!

Wanting a collapse is wishing ill! Wanting people's net worth reduced, wanting people in negative equity!
 
Andy Doof said:
I just don't think there will be a crash...lampoon me, disagree with me. I love that. But at least hope I'm right...it's as if some people want this to happen!
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As good an opinion as any! Still you should visit venture out past Dublin 6 or maybe even visit the northside now and again
 
Andy Doof said:
lol...have to go unfortunately!

Wanting a collapse is wishing ill! Wanting people's net worth reduced, wanting people in negative equity!
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Again - there's no logic in what you're saying
Nobody here wants to see people in negative equity.

Are the people who might be exposed to negative equity wishing ill on those who can't afford a home by hoping property prices stay high? I don't think so, and it's the same for potential buyers who want prices to fall.
 
Andy Doof said:
Sorry Blue, missed your question!
I cannot
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then why do you believe we will buck the trend?......i'm not having a go...but having to listen to people (like my parents) telling me that prices won't come down because of the 'soft landing' gets to me....
i havent a clue whats going to happen but i trust whats happened in the past more than what these vested interests say......
It sickens me that they get an article a day in the Indo to spout this rubbish!
 
Andy Doof said:
How is that ridiculous?!
Wanting to see one is therefore wishing ill on other people.
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That's spurious reasoning, any time an asset class goes up or down in value someone will win and someone will lose. If property prices fall there will be winners and losers - most people are losers when they are in bubble territory. If you bought property in the expectation that it will only go up in value, and you consider anyone who says otherwise as out to get you then you've got issues to deal with.
 
blue01 said:
Andy, can you give us a previous example of a soft landing in history?.....i can't.....

Why are you so sure that something that hasn't happened EVER in any housing market will happen now.....is it the luck of the Irish or something?
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This came up a while ago and the example given was London a couple of years back. Was laughed out of it but still has a point, a serious crash looked inevitable but property prices seem to have stabalized and settled there...
 

You need to take into account the negative equity.

50% drop in 500k (92% mortgage) house = 250k drop, 460k owed, negative equity 210k
50% drop in 750k (92% mortgage) house = 375k drop, New Mortgage 345k

Thus you'd have to find 210k + (8% x 375k) 30k + stamp (6% x 375k) 22.5 k = 272.5k cash to buy.
Before you would have only needed (8% x 740k) + stamp (9% x 740k) 67k = 127k (and you may have had Capital Appreciation too thus reducing this to 0)

Also. Banks are much more lax with lending criteria in a rising market. In a falling or stagnent market they are much stricter, and check authenticity of docs etc. much more thoroughly (as people on Mortgages & Home Buying have been discovering). After all they're in the business of making money and bad debts would seriously eat into this. I'd say they staticians are working overtime these days.
 
If house prices are falling (or slowing), surely it's too early to say whether we have a "soft landing" - don't we have to wait till they've stopped falling to declare that. Why are there so many people in the media saying we are "heading towards a soft landing"? Shouldn't it be "we're heading towards something, when we get there we'll know what it is".
 
Andy Doof said:
Eh, 100% mortgage, bought your furniture with a credit card, spoofed the bank about your salary...property crash, oh s..t!
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So thats gonna be some cyber-property-bears fault if they lose their home?

How about giving people here some credit. We're not all malevolent begrudgers. The fact is that the crash is an almost inevitable symptom of the spectacular capital appreciation you've enjoyed.

Do you feel guilty that your fortunate position has denied several people the prospect of owning their own home? That you've contributed towards severe financial hardship for many people? That you've directly contributed to the very real situation you yourself describe...?
Eh, 100% mortgage, bought your furniture with a credit card, spoofed the bank about your salary...property crash, oh s..t!
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Nope, didn't think so. That's just the market, eh? That's fine for you then, but not good enough for those of us who stand to make nothing from a crash, yet are merely trying to highlight the risk rather than sweeping it under the carpet because you know what, I'm alright Jack, I've got my investment properties sorted.

Sorry mate, but it's hypocritical to accuse a bear of "wishing ill" on someone when you yourself have contributed in far greater ways to the hypothetical over-borrowed homeowner you describe.
 
MadPad said:
This came up a while ago and the example given was London a couple of years back. Was laughed out of it but still has a point, a serious crash looked inevitable but property prices seem to have stabalized and settled there...
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Yep and I think we could have got a soft landing in 2004 too but not now.

Also UK control their interest rates so they can adjust accordingly (as they did in 2004). We can't. Also, their currency can/will fluctuate to deal with imbalences in their economy, our's can't.
 
There's been such a big hullabaloo generated about The Soft Landing and Prices Will Not Fall! that when the data shows that prices are falling (ESRI/PTSB), it's quite possible that people will be horrified that the "impossible" has happened. That could really push sentiment lower. At that point, the current VI spin will work against them and negative sentiment will accelerate quicker than it would have if they had not created the soft landing scam.

Irish property version of the famous US military phrase - "Shock and Awe-Jaziz No!"

Will take a long time to reach capitulation however : http://www.investopedia.com/articles/analyst/080702.asp
[broken link removed]
 

cant see that happening on this thread , the average poster here makes me sound like a raving property bull.
 
topman said:
I have read alot of the comments on this thread. They are 99.9 % negative on the property market in Ireland. Would anybody like to state when and by how much properties are going to go down by.
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Obviously you haven't paid attention to any ofthe posts ad also what is not positive about change?

Are you propsing forever increasing house prices and a complete impovrishment of the populaiton jsut to own a cowshed over your head? I believe that is a tad more negative that stability.
 
Andy Doof said:
all have obviously seen spectacular capital apprecation, which slowed, slowed more and has now stagnated or is moving a little.
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I love how the opposite of 'spectacular capital appreciation' is the directionless 'moving a little'. Perhaps the missing modifier is 'anti-up', or 'unrising'.
 
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