Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

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Capitalism

Definition

Economic system characterized by the following: private property ownership exists; individuals and companies are allowed to compete for their own economic gain; and free market forces determine the prices of goods and services. Such a system is based on the premise of separating the state and business activities. Capitalists believe that markets are efficient and should thus function without interference, and the role of the state is to regulate and protect.
 
Capitalism

Definition

Economic system characterized by the following: private property ownership exists; individuals and companies are allowed to compete for their own economic gain; and free market forces determine the prices of goods and services. Such a system is based on the premise of separating the state and business activities. Capitalists believe that markets are efficient and should thus function without interference, and the role of the state is to regulate and protect.
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Good man - sent that on to Brian Cowen - he looks like he needs a little support seeing as all our hithero "capitalist" banks and commentators are looking for a little socialist TLC this december!!! :)
 
edo said:
Good man - sent that on to Brian Cowen - he looks like he needs a little support seeing as all our hithero "capitalist" banks and commentators are looking for a little socialist TLC this december!!! :)
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I feel that many bulls fail to understand that its the free market that determines price. :(
 
robd said:
Yep and I think we could have got a soft landing in 2004 too but not now.
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AGREED! but for Gods sake the prices kept going up and up until nearly ZERO FTBs could afford anything. I find it funny that if they had of managed this ALOT better they would still have all the eejits buying tiny apartments and townhouses (which cost a fraction to build - mass produced too) at super high prices.
Dont underestimate the lemmings desire to follow the leader - I honestly believe people would be stupid enough continue to buy these types of property at such prices if they could - thats one of the things that BLOWS MY MIND

REPENT
THE END IS NIGH!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
Up to 4% of America's mortgaged homeowners might lose their homes to foreclosure in coming months, one of the nation's largest lenders predicted Monday, as those homeowners find themselves trapped by heavy debt and the housing slump.
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, that's a scary figure.
 
Demographics are going to be a real problem for the market in coming years. The birth rate fell off a cliff after 1980.

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Data Source : Council of Europe - [broken link removed][broken link removed]
 
DNPG,
While its interesting to capture weekly and maybe even daily numbers, I can't see why you'd need to capture daily hours. A trend of daily/weekly figures gives a good indication of how things are shaping up.
 
Savvy said:
DNPG,
While its interesting to capture weekly and maybe even daily numbers, I can't see why you'd need to capture daily hours. A trend of daily/weekly figures gives a good indication of how things are shaping up.
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I see what you mean, but I figured I needed a reasonable number of figures each day since they fluctuate so much. Later, I'm hoping to add a "moving average" to the graph that'll iron out the wrinkles and give a reasonably accurate trend.
 
Nice quote from Antispin on iTulip.com which expresses very nicely the way I feel about the pronouncements of the vested interests

Sometimes I think I ought to start a new site called heydumbass.com. Except[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] DOTSTER, INC.[/FONT] owns the domain and I'm not going to pay the guy a cent for it. Identifying , , or other market bubbles is about as hard as finding a banker after you've missed your mortgage payments for six months. You can not see them if you don't want to, but only for so long. The path of their collapse–whether stocks or –is as mysterious as a hangover after beer, wine, scotch, and gin. Even the timing of the end of and housing bubbles isn't so hard to estimate. What is truly hard to estimate is the willingness of market participants to believe the pitches of bubble product sales people who are as compelled to tell the truth as politicians running for office are to make promises they can keep. The duration and extent of denial is nearly impossible for even the cruelest imagination to conceive.
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We’re a young nation, teenagers really. Remember your first paycheque… that’s us now, high on easy credit. We simply don’t have the memory in our collective unconscious of paying the piper when the bubble bursts. It was always about famine and survival and having a roof over your head. We have in our family folklore the stories of the starving who went to America and did well, but since most of us never much money or had any first hand knowledge of loosing one’s shirt (we didn’t have one to loose) we simply don’t have in our upbringing a sense of what prudent investing is. We believe it’s different for us, we the super confident educated new generation of Paddies can rewrite the laws of economics. There’s a salutary lesson in store for those who’ve overextended themselves, but it’s all part of growing up. Knowledge sometimes comes at great cost.
 
robd said:
You need to take into account the negative equity.

50% drop in 500k (92% mortgage) house = 250k drop, 460k owed, negative equity 210k
50% drop in 750k (92% mortgage) house = 375k drop, New Mortgage 345k

Thus you'd have to find 210k + (8% x 375k) 30k + stamp (6% x 375k) 22.5 k = 272.5k cash to buy.
Before you would have only needed (8% x 740k) + stamp (9% x 740k) 67k = 127k (and you may have had Capital Appreciation too thus reducing this to 0)

Also. Banks are much more lax with lending criteria in a rising market. In a falling or stagnent market they are much stricter, and check authenticity of docs etc. much more thoroughly (as people on Mortgages & Home Buying have been discovering). After all they're in the business of making money and bad debts would seriously eat into this. I'd say they staticians are working overtime these days.
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If you are in (full) negative equity you would have to buy at todays prices and I agree banks would probably be reluctant to lend you as much as currently. However, the lower your LTV rato however the more you will benefit from any fall (if you are an owner occupier looking to trade up). The average Irish LTV (according to that recent Duetsche Bank risk report) is 65%, a long way to fall! At some point in any downturn you would see some support from trader-uppers moving at reduced cost to more desirable areas. They could also improve their situation further by selling their property first and then waiting for the desirable property to fall further...

>>Update : oops didn't do the maths when writing that - assumed the cost was the same, actually it's better. If your in full negative equity the price of trading up is now 585, that's still quite a bit cheaper than the 750k it would cost today (92% LTV looking to trade up from 500 to 750 pretty much has to borrow the max - 92% of 750k today as they have no equity - other than their deposit)... I'm starting to warm to the idea of a crash :->
 
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Moneyfool said:
There’s a salutary lesson in store for those who’ve overextended themselves, but it’s all part of growing up. Knowledge sometimes comes at great cost.
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Most my friends dont have much of an interest in politics or economics
most dont realise the implications of simple facts that are in the public domain. They simply believe what they are told. And for the past few years practically everybody has been on this bandwagon of lies.... Yes its their own fault for buying property at silly prices but at least some of the blame lies elsewhere

I have nothing to gain from a crash - I have sold up my house and am going abroad soon but the situation here stills hits a nerve. I see no way out of this than in a HARD CRASH - so my main point:

While some argue that its peoples own fault for immaturity with money etc(i agree) I ALSO believe that this lack of Government has led to a situation with dire consequences for our economy.
It was let go out of control.

There is no shortage of land in the country - agricultural land is for buttons
empty houses etc etc Im just repeating this thread all over again
 
Moneyfool said:
We’re a young nation, teenagers really. Remember your first paycheque… that’s us now, high on easy credit. We simply don’t have the memory in our collective unconscious of paying the piper when the bubble bursts. It was always about famine and survival and having a roof over your head. We have in our family folklore the stories of the starving who went to America and did well, but since most of us never much money or had any first hand knowledge of loosing one’s shirt (we didn’t have one to loose) we simply don’t have in our upbringing a sense of what prudent investing is. We believe it’s different for us, we the super confident educated new generation of Paddies can rewrite the laws of economics. There’s a salutary lesson in store for those who’ve overextended themselves, but it’s all part of growing up. Knowledge sometimes comes at great cost.
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Great post. "super confident" sums it up well, we've dodged so many bullets that there's a sense of invulnerability with regard to property and credit.
 
Fascinating story from USA Today - 10 mistakes that made flipping a flop.
"If there’s a poster child for everything that went wrong in the real estate boom, it just might be Casey Serin."
He also has a blog.

And it's great to read that other Americans have no sympathy for him - http://reddit.com/info/nhbb/comments (Reddit).

Is it possible to get this thread through an RSS feed?
 
Moneyfool said:
We’re a young nation, teenagers really.
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Me <expletive deleted> We're one of the oldest nations on the planet. Only the likes of the Chinese have an older history than us. This "young nation" melarky really annoys those of us who know our history. Back in the 8th-10th centuries we were one of the most advanced nations in all of Europe, only the Byzantine Empire could match us for knowledge back then.

Is there any rubbish young Irish people these days will refuse to swallow?
 
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