Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

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Sidewinder said:
Me <expletive deleted>. We're one of the oldest nations on the planet.
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I would hazzard a guess at to what MoneyFool was getting at.

When it comes being a free market, globalised economy that truly is subject to the whims of international socio-economic developments - we are little more than children. It's not long along that we were viewed in some quarters as being 2nd/3rd world in terms of development.

We are currently having fun by playing with an exciting, shiny and hazardous new toy that is symptomatic of all 1st world free market economies with access to decent credit. The toy is simply asset speculation.

I really like that "first paycheck" analogy.
 
DoNotPassGo said:
I see what you mean, but I figured I needed a reasonable number of figures each day since they fluctuate so much. Later, I'm hoping to add a "moving average" to the graph that'll iron out the wrinkles and give a reasonably accurate trend.
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like the rebooting of their server at midnight :)
 
Posters please keep to the topic: Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

There are other threads (In LOS) to discuss politics and the economy in general.

for example The Irish Economy in TGD.
 
I doubt if many who learned the value of money from its extreme scarcity during the quiet desperation and deprivation of 1950's Ireland are currently 'over-exposed' to property! The 'young nation' point seems to be that the 30+'ers now buying houses can't?/won't? learn from history but must perforce engage in behaviour which will cripple them - and the country - financially. That isn't civilisation (which entails the handing on of acquired wisdom and knowledge) but rather its breakdown and a 'living-only-the-moment' heedlessness which loses sense of cause and effect..........and indeed that's what the 'property bubble' looks like! This suits the shareholders of the financial institutions who are not responsible for the sentiment but are facilitating it - which is capitalism. Ultimately responsibility is an individual matter. As the old adage goes: "Where ignorance is bliss, 'tis folly to be wise" - it is more comfortable not to look at history, look at the facts or listen to the experience of others........and that is crazy!
 
Andy Doof said:
Which developments? Name them. name a development where a phase being launched right now is cheaper than a previous phase.
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The Paddocks, Adamstown, Co Dublin
2 bedroom apartments started off last week at €305,000 but have now been dropped to €290,000.Original launch details:http://www.unison.ie/irish_independent/stories.php3?ca=303&si=1701582&issue_id=14736New Price: €290,000http://www.dng.ie/search_result_detail.cfm?ID=101618589
21-10-2006: Update: sold out - €305k

to name just one..............
 
Mr Gilroy on Newstalk balanced up the discussion this morning by having Richard Curran from SBP on. mention was made of the number of texts sent in complaining about the EA's Economists for EA's given a free ride in the media recently.

Again the tone and advice was not don't buy under any circumstances as prices would crash within 12 months, but just be more choosy about where you buy. Preferably in the city or reasonable commutable distance.

I sense most people feel we're some time away from a crash yet. A few asking price drop swallows do not yet make a summer crash.........
 
Arthur Daley said:
Mr Gilroy on Newstalk balanced up the discussion this morning by having Richard Curran from SBP on. mention was made of the number of texts sent in complaining about the EA's Economists for EA's given a free ride in the media recently.

Again the tone and advice was not don't buy under any circumstances as prices would crash within 12 months, but just be more choosy about where you buy. Preferably in the city or reasonable commutable distance.

I sense most people feel we're some time away from a crash yet. A few asking price drop swallows do not yet make a summer crash.........
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I don't suppose much heed will be paid to statements like the one below by people who directly infuence the cost of borrowing here......:rolleyes:

"ECB's Weber issues inflation warning
Last updated: 25-10-06, 08:52
European Central Bank Governing Council member Axel Weber has said that inflation is likely to pose a risk next year and the ECB needed to ask itself whether stimulative policy was still needed. "


[broken link removed]

(subscription needed)
 
Arthur Daley said:
Mr Gilroy on Newstalk balanced up the discussion this morning by having Richard Curran from SBP on. mention was made of the number of texts sent in complaining about the EA's Economists for EA's given a free ride in the media recently.

Again the tone and advice was not don't buy under any circumstances as prices would crash within 12 months, but just be more choosy about where you buy. Preferably in the city or reasonable commutable distance.

I sense most people feel we're some time away from a crash yet. A few asking price drop swallows do not yet make a summer crash.........
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It'll be interesting to see whether Newstalk now take note of public sentiment and start to lean in that general direction. While property porn might be their bread-and-butter, they can't remain indifferent to public opinion without becoming a laughing stock.

Regarding the speed with which a crash can develop.... This from the Sydney Morning Herald in Sept 2002.


10. Don't procrastinate
With Sydney's latest property boom apparently at an end, it's tempting to assume that prices may plateau or even fall. This is only partly true, says Macquarie Bank property researcher Rod Cornish.
"Prices for generic apartments in the middle and outer-ring suburbs, such as Hurstville and Bankstown, will probably fall by about 10 per cent over the next 18 months, which makes it worth waiting if you're after one of these types of apartments." But Cornish says to be wary of this kind of property, as its capital growth potential is limited, and you don't want to forfeit potential resale value simply because you were keen to get your own place. His advice is "don't rush into anything, but don't procrastinate, either".
Finders Keepers' Lisa Bradley agrees. "It's a mistake to wait for that fabled `market correction'. "On the whole, prices only level out, they never really come down," she says. "While you're sitting around waiting for prices to fall, the market could get out of reach again."
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Their market crash started in late 2003.
 
From ireland.com breaking news:
House price growth slows in wake of ECB rises

[broken link removed]

(subscription required)

House price growth was down to 0.7% for the month of september, the fourth successive monthly slowdown.
R
 
ESRI/PTSB index, house price growth slowed considerably again. Down to 0.7% from 1%

Allowing for the data lag of a few months, this is a very significant decrease. This data is collected on mortgages drawn down so it relates to sale-agreed deals from a few months back.

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random2006 said:
From ireland.com breaking news:
House price growth slows in wake of ECB rises

[broken link removed]

(subscription required)

House price growth was down to 0.7% for the month of september, the fourth successive monthly slowdown.
R
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"
In September, the price of houses nationally rose by 0.7 per cent during the month, down from the rate of 1.0 per cent recorded in August this year and the 1.1 per cent, 1.2 per cent and 1.6 per cent recorded in July, June and May respectively."

Dropping quite quickly, it will be interesting to see the daft figures which are out next week (I think)
 
beattie said:
Dropping quite quickly, it will be interesting to see the daft figures which are out next week (I think)
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Especially considering that the ESRI/PTSB report is based on mortgages drawn down when final contracts are signed. This means that there is approx 10 week lag on sale agreed prices. Add another month for report preparation and you have data that is three to four months old at the time of release. It's a very significant drop.
 
Also keep in mind that when the PTSB source code was examined it was found to have this algorithm coded:

%
% Apply soft-landing adjustment rule
%



IF house_price_growth < 0 THEN
house_price_growth = 0.7​
END;
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;) :D
 
Aha - a new trick to keep the inventory looking low !

Lump 3 gaffs together on one page!!

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irlstu said:
Above post was dated 18th Oct, its now just dropped to [broken link removed]
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Even at €223k (plus SD) the yield would only be 5%. AIB and BOS now offer ~5% in a risk-free acct (net of DIRT).

The last guests to this party, who can leave, have left. For those remaining, economic reality is going to be swift and brutal.
 
The question now is.

Would you feel confident that you could buy a house at January 2006 prices.

I would be confident.
 
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