Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

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Andy Doof said:
.......... That's why the higher you are up that food chain, the safer you are.
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Works in the jungle :D but maybe the more you have, the more you have to lose ....

If its your home, provided you can pay for it, you're safe.

Another thought on the stamp duty changes. If they abolish stamp duty, it could end up creating greater liquidity in the second hand market and hence worsen a softening market, on the basis that people who think the market has peaked and want to cash in, then can assume lower costs of entry when buying in a year or 2's time... "Sure sell now, you wont have to pay X grand in stamp duty if you are buying again."
As usual the only winners are the lawyers.:mad:


I would be very suprised if anything changes in the budget.
 
Calina said:
Inventory is rising pretty much every day. Almost the only way a soft landing can be managed is if inventory is very carefully managed vis a vis the number of buyers. Unfortunately, neither can be.
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Excuse the conspiricy theory but couldn't this discussion be played out with certain developers at the tent at the Galway races next August after a particularly bloody and tight election win?
 
Originally Posted by Andy Doof
Prices are not "dropping significantly" across Dublin!
People are putting what had become the usual ludicrous reserves on properties and they haven't realised them. There hasn't been price deflation. Look at developers launching new phases...are the prices lower than they were before. We are seeing the soft landing most people want to see...not the crash most Joe Higgins/Irish Times moraliser wants to see
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Andy , mate , - this is only the start - we are at the very beginning of a slump that is going to run and run.The property market = employment for over 30% at least of the population - you ain't seen nothing yet.

PS - I would have thought the IT was the most property friendly /soft landing forum in the Country!
 
Andy Doof said:
Which developments? Name them. name a development where a phase being launched right now is cheaper than a previous phase.
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Timber mill Artane, previous phase was €399,000
Now €395,000 - a small drop but significant given that it's new build :)
[broken link removed]=
 
Andy Doof said:
Which developments? Name them. name a development where a phase being launched right now is cheaper than a previous phase.
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Adamstown.
Latest launch a couple of weeks ago was around 20k cheaper than the Spring prices. Don't have time now to hunt down the links but I'm sure somebody will! If not, I'll do it when I get home...
 
Arthur Daley said:
Excuse the conspiricy theory but couldn't this discussion be played out with certain developers at the tent at the Galway races next August after a particularly bloody and tight election win?
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Probably. But I can't see it being implemented successfully. You'll need to prolong the "if you don't buy now" fear factor and I don't know how much longer that's going to wash...
 
Andy Doof said:
I believe that the less desirable the property/area, the more it is overvalued. The 3 Bed Semi in the commuter belt is the most overvalued of all.
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I'd suggest that the 2-bed apartments in the commuter belt are far, far worse. You can settle down and raise a family in a 3-bed semi while bemoaning the daily commute, but you ain't expanding the old family tree too much in a shoe-box apartment.

Andy Doof said:
The more exclusive areas have a finite number of properties...so demand will always be there.
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At this end of the scale, there'll be an even more finite number of potential buyers if the market goes pear-shaped too. We're not exactly churning out non-property millionaires in Ireland these days. Since property has been such an investment du-jour for the last 10 years, how many of those who currently own these exclusive homes might find themselves as "stressed vendors", to say the least. Leverage can bite back.

You have to bear in mind that exclusive areas have a trophy value that the suburbs don't, and that trophy value gets wiped off pretty quickly when money gets tight and homes revert to their original function (ie. a roof over your head) in a downturn.

Andy Doof said:
I see the market stetching out from Dublin 4, out into Dublin 6, into Rathfarnham, out west, out north, up to Balbriggan, out to Naas, down to Gorey.
Any fall in prices brings all those people concertina like back into Dublin back up the food chain.
That's why the higher you are up that food chain, the safer you are.
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How does this logic work? People who can't afford to buy in Dublin at present can move in when property slumps because their target home in central Dublin won't have slumped as much as their current home.

You're having your cake and eating it......
 
It does say "from" 395K! That old chestnut...sorry sir, they're all gone but we do have one for 410K!
 
It works as follows...we all want to live in Dublin 4. Those who can do, those who can't live in Dublin 6. Nearly all of us want to live in dublin 6...and so on.
 
395K...done. Actually we've just had a call from a Mr.Smith who's bid 400K. Please send your full and final offer into our Verry IsTerrible office by Friday morning...
 
Andy Doof said:
It does say "from" 395K! That old chestnut...sorry sir, they're all gone but we do have one for 410K!
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What do you want, someone here to scan a purchase contract and upload it? You said name one, and now you can't accept it - poor Andy :(
 
Andy Doof said:
It works as follows...we all want to live in Dublin 4. Those who can do, those who can't live in Dublin 6. Nearly all of us want to live in dublin 6...and so on.
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No we don't. Personally God nor man wouldn't get me into Dublin 4 as it is too far from where I work. So too is Dublin 6. So it doesn't work as you lay out at all and it is naive to think it.
 
conor_mc said:
.......
How does this logic work? People who can't afford to buy in Dublin at present can move in when property slumps because their target home in central Dublin won't have slumped as much as their current home.
.......
.
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good point but there is some logic there, How much is it worth to someone to live within a 20 minute commute to work vs a 2 hour drive? Ive spent the last 2 years on 1 hour max (within Dublin) and Ive had enough!

My guess is that commute journey time is and will continue to be a major factor in house valuations and will prop up values.
 
Andy Doof said:
It works as follows...we all want to live in Dublin 4. Those who can do, those who can't live in Dublin 6. Nearly all of us want to live in dublin 6...and so on.
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Aspiring to living somewhere and being able to afford to live somewhere are two very different things.

By your logic, if someone wanted to live in D4, then they'd already be there. When are you going to explain the bull argument about how they afford to get there when the price gap between their current home and their target home is widening?
 
Andy Doof said:
A house with an AMV of 1.8 Million is withdrawn or there are no bids and they're now quoting 2.1 Million...yeah that's a massive crash
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The point is that they actually have to SELL the house. They can ask for 10 million if they like. I think the key thing you said was that they didn't get any bids!!!

Houses not selling at auction was one of the first indicators that the property boom was slowing. I think only around one in ten houses is selling at auction. I also notice around Terenure that a couple of houses that were initially for auction (in an area where nearly all houses have heretofore been sold in this manner) are now for sale by private treaty.
 
Lol...a touch harsh:rolleyes:
A difficult one to prove as without going out there you don't know if it's like for like.
I know from my own situation I've a few properties of different types. all have obviously seen spectacular capital apprecation, which slowed, slowed more and has now stagnated or is moving a little. Am I worried? No. Will their value go down a little in the short term? Maybe but I don't think so. Am I insulated against a slump because I bought sensibly - I'd like to think so
 
It's not the person sitting in their house way outside Dublin, it's the first time buyer/immigrant who aspires to live closer to the city
 
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