Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

[Glenbhoy]

Problem is, your skewed example is not a typical scenario. You refer to a house at the bottom end of the market and a couple with well above average salaries.

Let's be honest, nobody wants to live in commuterland.

Firstly, what's skewed? Perhaps you should read my post and what it was in response to - ie a suggestion that 410K was out of reach of most FTB's. I was pointing out how 410k is most likely affordable for many couples - as for where the place is, and the merits of living there - i did not comment.

 

[room305]

Re the interest rate increases, my point was that a 0.25% increase on a base rate of 2% is more significant than a 0.25% increase on a base rate of 3%.

Ah yes I see. The repayment increase on a move from 2-2.25% is less than the repayment increase when you move from 5-5.25%. However, as a portion of the overall rate, the first move is more significant.

 

[Glenbhoy]

Just stop and think about what you're saying for a moment. A high-earning couple with no kids and no debt apart from the mortgage would be spending 40% of their joint income to live in an undesirable area (IMO) of the capital.

Tis not me who is saying anything, i'm just pointing out what the banks see - as some have rightly said, maybe the purchasers should stop and think - but we're all grown ups aren't we.

 

[redo]

A freind of mine bought a house in Moy Glas in the early days when they were selling to 80K Pounds. The same houses have an asking price if 410K Euros today. Surely this is out of the reach of most FTBs

145 has got full planning permission for a two story development and is quoting 1/2 million. Crazy.

 

[Guest107]

Yeah, 2Pack was monitoring the number of houses for sale nationally on daft.ie on this thread about 2 weeks ago. He was at about 14,100 on his last post. It's now 14,900 (in the middle of the quiet season).

I had stopped but thanks for noting the figure for me there Cellopoint. Hopefully you do not get any irrational abuse for simply stating the facts like I did Its now 14972 by the way.

 

[bearishbull]

PLEASE! NO MORE FIGURES FROM MYHOME OR DAFT!!!! start a new thread if you wanna discuss it. When/if rigourous studies of housing inventory is available then it can be considered in terms of consumer sentiment.

 

[Jeanne]

Took me an entire day to read through this thread. Jeepers, I'm now boggle - eyed!

But it was worth it.

All really interesting - some very insightful contributions. And I've even enjoyed 2Pack's stats!

My own reading of the property situation is.....this bubble is about to burst!

 

[CelloPoint]

Took me an entire day to read through this thread. Jeepers, I'm now boggle - eyed!

But it was worth it.

All really interesting - some very insightful contributions. And I've even enjoyed 2Pack's stats!

My own reading of the property situation is.....this bubble is about to burst!

Can I ask how you heard about this thread? Are you a new askaboutmoney user? The reason I ask is because this thread has received a phenomenal amount of hits over the last 3 weeks.

I was talking to a colleague at lunch and I overheard the people at the table next to me talking about this thread!

 

[walk2dewater]

When everyone thinks the same, then there is'nt alot of thinking going on....

This sums up my current thinking(ha!) at the moment. Brilliant.

Here's another one, this time its really happening:

The lunatics are about to take over the asylum.

hang on....

 

[beattie]

My own reading of the property situation is.....this bubble is about to burst!

It won't for a while yet, though I think the next six months will be interesting. I am noticing the pace of building the apartment blocks in South Dublin has ramped up in the last two months. Once these come on stream I forsee a drop in rents which coupled with ECB rates of approx 3.5% will make for an interesting spectacle

 

[room305]

My own reading of the property situation is.....this bubble is about to burst!

Nope, highly unlikely. Not for a while yet anyway.

Might just be idle speculation but I've noticed a curious bullishness undercurrent to the thoughts of people who are supposedly bearish. I thought recently that I had detected a change of sentiment among people I spoke to. Much talk of possible collapse, more caution, talk of prices falling etc. Especially when this was coupled with lots of bearish articles in the media about property. Although the property supplements didn't really get any slimmer.

Now I'm starting to think nothing at all has changed. Even those who claim they are bearish, are really just hoping the prices will drop so they can buy in at a supposed "bargain" price. After that they would like it to be business-as-usual-please with a never-ending rise in property prices.

It's possible we're entering the last leg of the bubble, when even supposed bears start to believe the hype and buy in at all costs.

When you hear W2DW has been spotted queuing overnight for an apartment in Charlestown, then it is most definitely time to exit the party as gracefully as you can manage. Or just duck.

 

[thewatcher]

It's possible we're entering the last leg of the bubble, when even supposed bears start to believe the hype and buy in at all costs.

When you hear W2DW has been spotted queuing overnight for an apartment in Charlestown, then it is most definitely time to exit the party as gracefully as you can manage. Or just duck.

There's a few lads wobbling alright,but it still doesn't get away from the fact that it would be better to take a bit of a smack now than a lump hammer further down the line.

http://www.rte.ie/business/2006/0727/usa2.html

Compare and contrast !.no

 

[liteweight]

P.S Liteweight , Do you think the rent on a mortgage(Ie; interest) is dead money? Do you realise house prices must increase by around 50% in real terms just to break even on the purchase of a house?

Have just returned from holiday and am trying to catch up with this thread! No Bearishbull, I didn't realise that. However, at least when paying a mortgage over time it is creating equity in the property whereas rent remains the same and (?) may rise. If you pay for 10 years, you still come out the way you went in! I presume the figure of 50% is based on a person sticking to the term of the loan e.g.20 yrs. There is opportunity however, to reduce the size of the loan and therefore the interest as one's circumstances allow. Also it is possible to sell and put any profit made against the next family home, thereby reducing the mortgage. I realise with house prices so high, that stamp duty and fees will significantly reduce profit nowadays.

Anyway I'm taking everything said in reply to my post and trying to digest it. I may even take a different stand.......I have been known to be persuaded by a good argument occassionally!

 

[room305]

... it would be better to take a bit of a smack now than a lump hammer further down the line.

Absolutely. Couldn't agree more. I just doubt we'll get the bit of a smack now because rates simply won't rise fast enough to do it. We are headed for disaster, although I think now that it is further away than I originally anticipated.

That's the thing with bubbles, they always last longer than you'd suspect. Even Alan Greenspan got sucked into believing the hype about the .com bubble, with all the talk of a "new era", "Dow 36,000" and so on.

 

[whathome]

Reading this thread has been really interesting!
Mrs. Whathome and I have been active in the market since January. We currently own two properties (purchased in 1998 and 2001) and we were planning on selling both to trade up.

Given that we are selling and buying, we've had a good view of both sides of the market and we are definitely becoming more bearish every day. Our selling agent mentioned that despite the usual summer slowdown, prospective buyers appear to be far more cautious than usual.

As mentioned previously in this thread, increased inventory in certain areas is obvious - tons of investor type property (apartments and ex-rental houses) coming on even during the quiet summer season.

Our observations have been that some asking prices have quietly dropped over the recent past. This is not just a summer phenomenon as these houses were originally priced at levels consistent with similar properties in the same area. Furthermore, they're in what people would typically consider "secure" areas. Here are some examples of particular houses that I noticed:

- Blackrock : 4 Bed Detached reduced from €895,000 to €850,000
- Blackrock : 3 Bed Semi Dormer Bungalow reduced from €850,000 to €795,000
- Beaumont : 3 Bed Semi reduced from €590,000 to €550,000
- Raheny : 3 Bed Semi reduced from €760,000 to €719,000
- Raheny : 4 Bed Semi reduced from €850,000 to 820,000
- Rathmichael : 2 Bed reduced from €520,000 to €495,000
- Rathmichael : 2 Bed reduced from €460,000 to €435,000

I also noticed that some new €1M plus townhouses in Stillorgan that had previously sold out are back on the market - and this is not the release of a new phase.

There has been a real shift in momentum from the frenzy that was evident in March to a crawl as the two interest rate hikes kicked in. I know it's the summer season but I noticed a similar shift in sentiment when prices started to drop during 2001 when we bought, even prior to 9/11. September will be interesting - we know of several houses that have been pulled off the market to be "re-launched" in the autumn. Add next weeks expected interest rate hike, the overhang of unsold property from the previous season and the new supply will create some pressure.

I think the craziness that is the Irish property market is partly as a result of bank over-lending. When we originally spoke with our conservative bank manager in January, he was horrified that we were thinking of selling either of our properties in order to buy our next house. They were VERY keen for us to go interest only on both existing properties and use our equity along with a jumbo mortgage to fund our new home. I couldn’t go along with that as I like to sleep at night – well most nights!

What has really highlighted a change in sentiment to me is that when we told people in Jan/Feb that we were planning on selling to buy, they invariably replied that we were “Mad to sell anything”. The response has changed recently to a reluctant “Maybe you’re doing the right thing”. Only time will tell!

 

[phoenix_n]

The response has changed recently to a reluctant “Maybe you’re doing the right thing”. Only time will tell!

And thats the key really. People are motivated by Fear and Interest. If the Fear exists that the market is about to burst ( the realisation that now it is indeed a bubble is significant) then it will.

 

[beattie]

Our observations have been that some asking prices have quietly dropped over the recent past. This is not just a summer phenomenon as these houses were originally priced at levels consistent with similar properties in the same area. Furthermore, they're in what people would typically consider "secure" areas. Here are some examples of particular houses that I noticed:

- Blackrock : 4 Bed Detached reduced from €895,000 to €850,000
- Blackrock : 3 Bed Semi Dormer Bungalow reduced from €850,000 to €795,000
- Beaumont : 3 Bed Semi reduced from €590,000 to €550,000
- Raheny : 3 Bed Semi reduced from €760,000 to €719,000
- Raheny : 4 Bed Semi reduced from €850,000 to 820,000
- Rathmichael : 2 Bed reduced from €520,000 to €495,000
- Rathmichael : 2 Bed reduced from €460,000 to €435,000

I also noticed that some new €1M plus townhouses in Stillorgan that had previously sold out are back on the market - and this is not the release of a new phase.

Very interesting to see reductions in those areas, it has always being drilled in that prices would drop last in the more salubrious areas. Maybe interest rate rises are affecting the highter market as well. I suppose if I was an investor in these areas I would see a pitiful yield being derived and get out while the going is good

 

[phoenix_n]

Very strange. I just noticed there is an increase of properties for sale in Phibsboro where i live. Looks like investors (poorly maintained houses) are dumping their stock.

Its started.

 

[soma]

Anyone who has been watching the attitudes to property of the two main players in the Irish broadsheet market was able to put a very large 2+2 together this morning.

I think people will have noticed that the independent newspaper group's columnists & general articles have been getting increasingly bearish (including a very bearish collection of articles in the Sunday Independent a few weeks back) - whereas the Irish Times has remained largely silent with the exception of the tone their 'worth the investment?' series.

This morning we learn that the Irish Times has emerged as a potential buyer of www.myhome.ie - I was always wondering who was going to end up being the bagholder for that one.

If the I.T. does purchase myhome, I predict they will take such a bath on that one in the next few years, that it will threaten the financial viability of the paper itself.

 

[soma]

This morning we learn that the Irish Times has emerged as a potential buyer of www.myhome.ie

Well lo & behold, they are the actual buyer (€50m) - a brutal investment IMHO.

May I be the first to congratulate the estate agents for selling at the top of the market and making a killing. The smart money always gets out in time.