Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

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Glenbhoy said:
To be honest, the increases haven't impacted us at all yet, and save for a loss of employment the increases will not affect us, additionally, we haven't yet reached the level where renting is cheaper for us (edging closer though).
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Even on a very good salary a reduction of yearly discretionary income by just over €2k has got to be at least noticeable (it's a decent holiday afterall :)). You might also want to consider the impact of future rate rises. Conservatively you are looking at about 12 further rises by year end 2008 (W2DW thinks there will be much more). Since each rise is proportionally more significant it is unlikely that even benchmarking will keep pace with the cuts into your income.

You might want to consider saving some of your discretionary income and using it to pay off lump sums from your mortgage. Like yourself, the rate rises haven't brought my repayments into line with rental costs but there is no way I could say it isn't having any impact.
 
redo said:
144 right now
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Yeah, 2Pack was monitoring the number of houses for sale nationally on daft.ie on this thread about 2 weeks ago. He was at about 14,100 on his last post. It's now 14,900 (in the middle of the quiet season).
 
redo said:
144 right now
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How many houses in Lucan? 3,000, more? Its hardly surprising that there are some for sale.

What was the average amount for sale in Lucan over the last few months\years?
 
I'll accept what you all say re the rises impacting, what i'm trying to get at though is that, the drip/drip approach of rising interest rates by 0.25 is designed to soften the impact. It's like ciggies, if governments wanted people to stop, they'd put very punitive taxes on them each year instead of 20c - it has an impact, but not a decision altering impact.
Since each rise is proportionally more significant it is unlikely that even benchmarking will keep pace with the cuts into your income.
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I would have thought that each rise is proportionally less significant??
 
SteelBlue05 said:
How many houses in Lucan? 3,000, more? Its hardly surprising that there are some for sale.

What was the average amount for sale in Lucan over the last few months\years?
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As an avid "Lucan watcher" I think I've a fair read on what the numbers have/should be. The numbers for Lucan, on the MyHome site, generally hover around between 80 and 110 (8-11 pages on a regular search). During the winter break these dropped to about 50 - 60.

I did raise an eyebrow when I did a search recently after seeing the 141 number posted as it is somewhat higher than usual. However I came the conclusion that 1) Lucan has more houses, seemingly by the day, so it shouldn't be a surprise to see more for sale. 2) I suspect there are a number of properties on the site which simply haven't been taken down due to summer holidays. This would be a factor which wouldn't necessarily be the case during the winter break.

That said the prices being asked for these properties is MASSIVELY inflated on what they had been. Roughly 25% on the year to date.
 
Howitzer said:
That said the prices being asked for these properties is MASSIVELY inflated on what they had been. Roughly 25% on the year to date.
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Is that just happening in Lucan or in all parts of Dubln, I didnt think Lucan was any different.
 
SteelBlue05 said:
Is that just happening in Lucan or in all parts of Dubln, I didnt think Lucan was any different.
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Lucan is a FTB market. My point in pointing out the numbers of houses for sale was highlight the reduction in activity in the FTB market.
 
SteelBlue05 said:
Is that just happening in Lucan or in all parts of Dubln, I didnt think Lucan was any different.
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I think Lucan has somewhat outperformed the market, possibly cos there was relative value still to be had, at the start of the year anyway, certainly not now.
 
Howitzer said:
I think Lucan has somewhat outperformed the market, possibly cos there was relative value still to be had, at the start of the year anyway, certainly not now.
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Especially when you consider the amount of housing estates, appaling traffic and general lack of facilites.
 
redo said:
Lucan is a FTB market. My point in pointing out the numbers of houses for sale was highlight the reduction in activity in the FTB market.
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A freind of mine bought a house in Moy Glas in the early days when they were selling to 80K Pounds. The same houses have an asking price if 410K Euros today. Surely this is out of the reach of most FTBs
 
CelloPoint said:
Especially when you consider the amount of housing estates, appaling traffic and general lack of facilites.
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traffic is bad on the N4 in the mornings, traffic is fine around Lucan.

Lack of facilities? What is it missing?
 
Bedsit said:
A freind of mine bought a house in Moy Glas in the early days when they were selling to 80K Pounds. The same houses have an asking price if 410K Euros today. Surely this is out of the reach of most FTBs
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This is the main point. It is starting to get to the stage were even FTB's cannot afford places like Lucan, for second hand houses anyway. There also seems to be alot of people in that area (Griffeen and Moyglass) selling up due to the new road being built and the projected increase in heavy lorries that will use this new road. Plus, with Adamstown being a "stones throw away", the traffic can only get worse. EA's must have a very good arm if they can throw stones that far. Maybe we should get them to enter the dicus at the next Olympics
 
A freind of mine bought a house in Moy Glas in the early days when they were selling to 80K Pounds. The same houses have an asking price if 410K Euros today. Surely this is out of the reach of most FTBs
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Probably standard for many first time buyers. Say a couple with incomes of 40K and 50K (not unreasonable for most 30yo old couples). Net income of approx. 65k, monthly - 5.25K, repayments on a 30yr 100% mortgage at 4.5% are 2100, this is approx 40% of net incomes, that's supposedly the limit for banks presently, but if they go for a 35yr mortgage then repayments become 1900 and affordability is now 36%. There is not much room for upward movement though, especially as these are supposed to be stress tested at 2% above prevailing interest rates - of course the banks could just continue to change their lending criteria, as is their right in a free market.
 
Glenbhoy said:
I'll accept what you all say re the rises impacting, what i'm trying to get at though is that, the drip/drip approach of rising interest rates by 0.25 is designed to soften the impact. It's like ciggies, if governments wanted people to stop, they'd put very punitive taxes on them each year instead of 20c - it has an impact, but not a decision altering impact.
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Absolutely. A punitive 0.5% or hell, why not a 1% rise in interest would definitely whip the wind from the sails of the Irish property market. If we could control the rate rises ourselves the central bank might even do it. However, it is unlikely for the same reason the ECB are afraid to do it. It could cause a recession.

Glenbhoy said:
I would have thought that each rise is proportionally less significant??
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No, more significant definitely. However, if you are depreciating the capital in the interim between the rises it may appear less significant because the higher percentage is calculated on smaller loan value.
 
Glenbhoy said:
Probably standard for many first time buyers. Say a couple with incomes of 40K and 50K (not unreasonable for most 30yo old couples). Net income of approx. 65k, monthly - 5.25K, repayments on a 30yr 100% mortgage at 4.5% are 2100, this is approx 40% of net incomes, that's supposedly the limit for banks presently, but if they go for a 35yr mortgage then repayments become 1900 and affordability is now 36%. There is not much room for upward movement though, especially as these are supposed to be stress tested at 2% above prevailing interest rates - of course the banks could just continue to change their lending criteria, as is their right in a free market.
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If these FTB decide to have kids? One can also include childminding costs cira 700 pm. Alot of them will be in the prediciment that they can't "afford" to have kids, which is a shame.
 
Glenbhoy said:
Probably standard for many first time buyers. Say a couple with incomes of 40K and 50K (not unreasonable for most 30yo old couples). Net income of approx. 65k, monthly - 5.25K, repayments on a 30yr 100% mortgage at 4.5% are 2100, this is approx 40% of net incomes, that's supposedly the limit for banks presently, but if they go for a 35yr mortgage then repayments become 1900 and affordability is now 36%. There is not much room for upward movement though, especially as these are supposed to be stress tested at 2% above prevailing interest rates - of course the banks could just continue to change their lending criteria, as is their right in a free market.
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Problem is, your skewed example is not a typical scenario. You refer to a house at the bottom end of the market and a couple with well above average salaries.

Let's be honest, nobody wants to live in commuterland.
 
If these FTB decide to have kids? One can also include childminding costs cira 700 pm. Alot of them will be in the prediciment that they can't "afford" to have kids, which is a shame.
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My research suggests you'd be blessed to get change out of a grand.
However, you also have to consider that assuming the economy stays stable (a very big assumption), salaries increase by circa 5% p.a. and of course mortgage repayments do come down with time.

Re the interest rate increases, my point was that a 0.25% increase on a base rate of 2% is more significant than a 0.25% increase on a base rate of 3%.
 
Glenbhoy said:
Say a couple with incomes of 40K and 50K (not unreasonable for most 30yo old couples). Net income of approx. 65k, monthly - 5.25K, repayments on a 30yr 100% mortgage at 4.5% are 2100, this is approx 40% of net incomes
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Just stop and think about what you're saying for a moment. A high-earning couple with no kids and no debt apart from the mortgage would be spending 40% of their joint income to live in an undesirable area (IMO) of the capital.

This is sheer, utter, madness and I feel confident that market forces will sort out this mess over a painfully drawn-out few years.
 
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