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plaudit
Guest
Expect a flood of empty specuvestor houses to go on the market after primetime.
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Austin Hughes of IIB just stated that hse prices wil rise by 7% next year.
And 40% of wages going on mortgage repayments is sustainable and manageable for couples at current rates for the forseeable future!..lol
That man should be doing stand-up comedy in Vicar street, i nearly fell out of chair laughing at him!
Richard Curran of SBP put across the case that we know about current negative sentiment pretty well i thought.
And 40% of wages going on mortgage repayments is sustainable and manageable for couples at current rates for the forseeable future!..lol
That man should be doing stand-up comedy in Vicar street, i nearly fell out of chair laughing at him!
Richard Curran of SBP put across the case that we know about current negative sentiment pretty well i thought.
Funny to see Miriam O'Callaghan sitting between a bear (Richard Curran - Sunday B. Post) and a bull (Austin Hughes - IIB Bank). I wonder how she would fare moderating between the bulls and bears on this thread! Having heard the two of them, I found A. Hughes more convincing. I had no strong views either way before watching the debate.
I thought PrimeTime was very balanced. Richard Curran from the Sunday Business Post said he did not buy into a soft landing and that a crash could not be ruled out and he believed that some areas could drop by up to 20%. Bubble and Crash were mentioned several times. Austin Hughes was doing his usual Comical Ali impression.
Overall, I felt it would leave the viewer in no doubt that the market was in big trouble.
Overall, I felt it would leave the viewer in no doubt that the market was in big trouble.
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plaudit
Guest
A lot of the VI's were banging on about the economy being good and pointed to a strong construction sector as one of the drivers. They failed to mention that if the number of new builds falls that there won't be as many jobs available. Not to mention the massive hit to the government coffers from the many associated taxes.
When asked if he felt that 40% of the average income going on mortgage repayments in Dubin was sustainable, Austin Hughes' response was instructive
Something like 'these traditional measures don't count as thing are different these days - back then people couldn't get a mortgage and people were emigrating and so the market was softer. People always had to struggle in the first few years after buying a house'
Totally dodged the question. People did struggle but were putting a much smaller percentage of their incomes into mortgages and didn't have add-ons like bin charges and management fees to think about.
Something like 'these traditional measures don't count as thing are different these days - back then people couldn't get a mortgage and people were emigrating and so the market was softer. People always had to struggle in the first few years after buying a house'
Totally dodged the question. People did struggle but were putting a much smaller percentage of their incomes into mortgages and didn't have add-ons like bin charges and management fees to think about.
That might have something to do with the fact that you have just bought an apartment in Dublin 8 according to a post on Oct 10th?
howstrange
Registered User
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I cant believe the wheels are coming off so quick!! Thats only with a 1.25 increase in interest rates since last Dec. With another 0.25 rise in Dec and maybe in early of next year i cant see any possible way of a soft landing!! I dont think Primetime will help the nerves of vendors at all.
Another thing i noticed passing an apt block this evening is that all the for sale signs have disappeared. This block has had at least 4 or 5 For Sale signs outside for the last few months. And i know the apts are not sold cos they are still on Myhome and Daft. I also noticed it in another apt block this morn. It got me thinking that it may be a new trick by the EA's?? If people dont see as many For Sale signs outside an apt block it might calm their fears!! Anyone any views on this?? Has anyone else noticed anything like this?
Another thing i noticed passing an apt block this evening is that all the for sale signs have disappeared. This block has had at least 4 or 5 For Sale signs outside for the last few months. And i know the apts are not sold cos they are still on Myhome and Daft. I also noticed it in another apt block this morn. It got me thinking that it may be a new trick by the EA's?? If people dont see as many For Sale signs outside an apt block it might calm their fears!! Anyone any views on this?? Has anyone else noticed anything like this?
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Open_Window
Guest
first time since, well a long time this has.
You got an offer, lucky you, some people are not getting a single offer!
Some people are now using more than 1 agent to sell!
Remember this thread is about current market sentiment so a dip in asking prices mean sentiment is turning and I believe has turned months ago, well before the Stamp Duty bull.
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Dipole
Guest
Prime Time made no mention of the major investor element to the residential property market even though desertion of the market by investors is what is going to bring the market crashing down.
I'm of the opinion that now that any meaningful capital appreciation of the asset is off the menu no rationalising investor has any business being in the market as the figures don't add up.
I'm of the opinion that now that any meaningful capital appreciation of the asset is off the menu no rationalising investor has any business being in the market as the figures don't add up.
bearishbull
Registered User
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The mantra all the vested interests keep regurgitating is that a "soft landing " is gonna happen when this outcome has never/rarely happened in previous booms around world. Also once theres a "soft landing" with minimal or zero capital growth all the recent investors who were obviously just buying for capital appreciation will cease to buy and/or sell their recent "investments". Rents may rise in this scenario but prices will fall as many tens of thousands of investment properties are dumped or new builds go unsold..
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Open_Window
Guest
I don't think many irish Media presenter actually fully grasp the scale of the subject to even forumalte a good question.
If it had of been Geroge Lee or David McWilliams presenting you would have seen fireworks!
Here is my big prediciton.
When the "Irish Property Bubble/Collapse" is covered on the "Late Late" with a panel of sobing FTBers who got in at the top (expect viewers numbers to be huge) you know we are in a post bubble burst crisis, it will have been made clear to the National pysche we are screwed.
Cut to distraught wife No.2 ... "pat we just wanted .. a [sob sob]... h-h-home, Pat the man in the bank was so nice he told us everything would be fine, he said 'sure property prices are flyin' ye'll be grand so ya will so ya will", his name was, his name em, what was his name love.. [sob sob] huh oh yes, Austin ... well Austin if you are watching tonight how do I explain this to little Dara & Aoife, how have now home you BA£"**D...."
Hughes denies that speculation has played any part in the hyper inflation in house prices over the past few years. This is of course utter nonsense with rental yields below finance cost and the media unabashedly discussing property investment in terms of 'anticipated' capital growth.
There was a telling bit of news further up the thread that hasn't received much attention; that is effective wage deflation in the most important parts of our economy, construction. Hardly delicious irony but the people building these homes are seeing wage growth of 3.7% pa while Hughes suggests in the face of rising borrowing costs that they will be able to pay 7% more for homes next year. Howling at the moon Austin, utterly barking mad.
True. I can't hide thatThat might have something to do with the fact that you have just bought an apartment in Dublin 8 according to a post on Oct 10th?
And I'm the first to tell people,with a wry smile, that I probably bought at the wrong time I guess you're suggesting that I'm taking the bullish view to make myself feel better about buying just as the bubble burst (April/May) but I really don't care so long as I can pay the mortgage and I think I'll manage that unless interest rates go completely haywire! I just find the bull arguments articulated by the young female interviewee and A. Hughes quite sound - strong economy, pope's children lining up to buy, strong immigration levels - reasonably convincing when sounded off against the bearish line adopted by R. Curran. I suppose I find the soft landing argument more plausible than the property crash line but of course I could be wrong
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Open_Window
Guest
its seem softer is much more desirable to "stagnant, rising a little bit then falling for some years, rising a bit agian then stagnanting again and so on...."
Back then they didn't have,
The M50
Soaring Eneregy Costs (eroding any gain in take home pay
Cronic Traffic Congestion
2 Hour Commutes each way
Did I saw the "M50" oh I did...
Rampant House Prie inflation (eroding any gain in take home pay)
Shall I go on????
I get fairly sick when people tell me how bad it was, yea sure less job, emmigration but the worst was yet to come!!!!
What does, or more to the point "did" it take to change sentiment, why super-duper-ultra-uber-cheaporama-alwayon-credit
What about the UK. It looks like they have achieved the fabled soft landing. House price rises about in line with inflation for the past 2 years or so and affordability is improving slightly. Not to say that prices won't fall but at the moment it seems that the 'soft landing' is happening there.
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Open_Window
Guest
Well it did take them at least one massive crash to get it right the second time round!!
(As soon as Austin wiped his brow and miriam offered him some water at the end of what was a light grillingt (must have felt a bit like Bertie) did we all just run up the stairs/into the study and bang on the laptop/computer and log straight onto the forum... yep I'm addicted, you can tell I have no interest in sport)
They aren't building new houses at the rate we are, thats the main difference. Also there is still decent returns to be made (well compared to the miniscule ones here) on BTL over there.
There was been been alot of figures banded about in recent weeks about the afforability factor of houses.
Consider this;
20 to 25 years ago, The afforability factor was arounf 25-30% based on
Interest rates circa 8%
Single income families
20 year mortgages.
Today, for FTB is it arounf 35-40% based on
Historically low interest rates circa 3.75% (Discount of course, soon to expire)
Dual income couples/families
> 30 year mortgages.
Austin, from IIB mentioned that he expected around 7% growth in house prices next year. Are IIB about to release a new 50 year product that we don't yet know about or is he confident that IIB will not pass on any interest rate increase in Dec 06?
Consider this;
20 to 25 years ago, The afforability factor was arounf 25-30% based on
Interest rates circa 8%
Single income families
20 year mortgages.
Today, for FTB is it arounf 35-40% based on
Historically low interest rates circa 3.75% (Discount of course, soon to expire)
Dual income couples/families
> 30 year mortgages.
Austin, from IIB mentioned that he expected around 7% growth in house prices next year. Are IIB about to release a new 50 year product that we don't yet know about or is he confident that IIB will not pass on any interest rate increase in Dec 06?
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