Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

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zac said:
any more? there should be lot more here seeing peoples sentiment here in general.
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I sold out of Irish property in 2005 and 2006 - invested proceeds in different asset classes, will not buy Irish residential property until yields return to at least 4%.
 
paddyd said:
We see the signs, and the signs say 'crash'; but the other 90% are blind to the signs, and so the market lands softer than expected.
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I don't think this argument stacks up.

IMHO if we use your own estimate that 90% are blind to the signs, I think it's very likely that that could in itself introduce a shock to the market. The first that many might suspect something is wrong is when they read that the average house price in Ireland has dropped by 10% or so. There's a real likelyhood that news like that sprung all of a sudden on a largely unsuspecting population could cause outright panic.

Sales are already slowing, inventories are continuing to build and this will end up hitting prices eventually (although it may be months after the fact before the figures get published).
 
The number of vacant housing units in the US (9.1% of total stock) is at the highest since 1960 (when records began). In Ireland the number of vacant units is somewhere in the region of 15%, (according to figures from the CSO) The vacancy rate in the UK is roughly 3% of housing stock.

Have we repealed the laws of supply and demand in Ireland? Or are we witnessing one of the greatest speculative asset bubbles in European history?




http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/housing/hvs/qtr206/q206tab1.html
 
CapitalCCC said:
I sold out of Irish property in 2005 and 2006 - invested proceeds in different asset classes, will not buy Irish residential property until yields return to at least 4%.
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You can buy Irish residential property now with a yield of 4%.
 
StoppedClock said:
Net?
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Definitely. Although you'd probably struggle to do so in Dublin. I'm selling my PPR and net yield (10 months rent) would be about 3.3%.

My point is that 4% net yield would be quite low - I'd be looking for 6% before climbing back into the pool.
 
room305 said:
Definitely. Although you'd probably struggle to do so in Dublin. I'm selling my PPR and net yield (10 months rent) would be about 3.3%.

My point is that 4% net yield would be quite low - I'd be looking for 6% before climbing back into the pool.
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Are you still trying to offload your property ? How are you finding the market?
 
conor_mc said:
In fairness though, quite a lot of people here might harbour bearish sentiment, but it's another thing to expect them to prove their bona fides by selling up their PPR from underneath their family. It suits some people, but others may be willing to ride out a downturn.

It's a common misconception on this thread that every house needs to be assessed on its investment merits. Some people just want a home to live in.
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conor_mc very important statement indeed, especially for those who think prices will be back to 2001 levels, and for those who predict 50-70% crash on this board.
 
[broken link removed] (Irish Times)

" .... While remaining strong, total revenue growth slowed significantly in the month, cooling to an annualised rate of 8.6 per cent, compared with 15.8 per cent in August. The trend reflects a marked slowdown in growth in taxes related to the property market.

While still strong at 24.6 per cent, growth in capital gains taxes during September was much slower than the 114 per cent growth registered in August. Capital acquisitions tax receipts grew by 51.5 per cent in September, compared to 119.6 per cent in August. Stamp duties slowed more modestly, rising by 33.4 per cent, compared to 36.6 per cent in August. ... "
 
phoenix_n said:
Are you still trying to offload your property ? How are you finding the market?
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Its only on the market about a week but there has been some interest already and one viewing.

We've priced it at May levels as opposed to May + x%, so we're hoping this will work in our favour.

I'm keeping a close eye on the local market and although inventory is building, properties priced at May levels seem to be shifting. Fingers crossed and all that.
 
room305 said:
Its only on the market about a week but there has been some interest already and one viewing.

We've priced it at May levels as opposed to May + x%, so we're hoping this will work in our favour.

I'm keeping a close eye on the local market and although inventory is building, properties priced at May levels seem to be shifting. Fingers crossed and all that.
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G'luck and remember to find out as much as possible who the prospective bidders are and go with the one that you are confident can close even if he/she is an underbidder. You dont want the sale to fall through.
 
I just wonder if there exists any statistics about number of houses for a sale in different regions?
For example i was monitoring 2 categories from 19/09/06:
1) total number of houses for sale in Bray
2) number of houses (excluding apartments) for sale in Dublin South (except Talagth) with asking price <381k

1 grew for last 15 days from 124 for 138 (11% from initial number)
2 grew from 41 to 45 (about 10%)

it would be intersting to have a longer history for such a statistics

btw in myhome.ie when u do a search for Dublin South the last page is always at 150. Does anybody know how to get the total number (which is definetly higher than that)?
 
Living through a house price crash

Having kept an eye on this thread for a while now I thought I'd add my tuppence worth. I lived in London throughout the 90s. When I met my then boyfriend and now husband, he had bought a 2 bed FTB flat in West London, 10 mins walk from the tube. He bought for £55,000 with a friend in 1987. It went up to £75 approx by 1989 and then started to go wrong. His friend bailed out at £65,OOO and hubby paid him the balance. We live in that flat until 1995 when it was valued at £52,000.

All this time we were trapped by negative equity and had to resave a new deposit to buy a house in 1995. Had we sold that flat as late as 1995, we would have lost money so we held on to it. It is now worth £130,000 and with some refurbishment £160,000.

My observation was that prices creep down slowly. You might say the figures are small but all those 1% interest increases added up. Because mortgage loans in Ireland now are so enormous, each 0.25% rise has an equivalent effect in my opinion.
 
phoenix_n said:
G'luck and remember to find out as much as possible who the prospective bidders are and go with the one that you are confident can close even if he/she is an underbidder. You dont want the sale to fall through.
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Thanks. That would be my thinking exactly.
 
arbus said:
I just wonder if there exists any statistics about number of houses for a sale in different regions?
For example i was monitoring 2 categories from 19/09/06:
1) total number of houses for sale in Bray
2) number of houses (excluding apartments) for sale in Dublin South (except Talagth) with asking price <381k

1 grew for last 15 days from 124 for 138 (11% from initial number)
2 grew from 41 to 45 (about 10%)

it would be intersting to have a longer history for such a statistics

btw in myhome.ie when u do a search for Dublin South the last page is always at 150. Does anybody know how to get the total number (which is definetly higher than that)?
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I've got daily stats for daft.ie on a county by county basis for sales and rents since July if you are interested?

to go beyond 150 choose a smaller sample, ie choose areas within Dublin south or view houses and appartments in two different searches.
 
Whizzbang - I would be very interested to see them stats if you would be so kind to PM me.

Room 305 - best of luck - as i previously mentioned - im selling my PPR to go renting & clear a tidy profit!- insist your EA gets an 'AIP' (agreement in principle) from the bidders whith a full declaration of their position ie.FTB , downsizing, trading up etc. My contracts are just out & survey done - fingers crossed- i would'nt fancy going back to market in November/new year..............
 
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