interesting, the CSO said they counted holiday homes separatly, what evidence is there for this 2/3 figure?
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interesting, the CSO said they counted holiday homes separatly, what evidence is there for this 2/3 figure?
http://www.answers.com/topic/irish-property-bubble
"Since 2000, approximately 75,000 housing units have been built every year as detailed by the Minister For Housing [1]. However, a significant proportion of these new homes are unoccupied. Economic commentator give a figure of approximately 230,000 vacant properties. Of these up to 115,000 or so may be holiday homes"
can we assume if 50% are Holiday homes, and 16% are second homes....? (its probably more)
Its actually quite hard to buy an investment property and not rent it. Remember these are UNOCCUPIED properties, and not properties that the investor hadd to reduce the rent on. They also include houses between tenants at time of census.
The only places I know that were bought as investment properties and are UNRENTABLE are the tax relief apartment blocks built a few years ago (before the relief ended) in places such as Carrick-on-shannon and so on (I'm familiar with those ones in particular.) In addition to being unrentable (no market), they ahve appreciated very little in the past few years, believe it or not. EA friend in Westmeath told me this a while back. They don't want to touch them for vendors, and are telling people to just hold on to them and hope.
Second/holiday homes are luxuries.
If there is a major downturn in construction which reaches deep into the rest of the economy, you can expect that alot of people will ditch their luxuries in favour of security... ie they'll bank their cash.
It's naive to expect a country in recession (if that were to happen) to maintain >10% of its housing stock as second/holiday homes.
Therefore their current utilisation (or not?) may well be irrelevant once the brown stuff hits the fan.
J
JohnG
Guest
When you look at photos of many of the houses for sale in Lucan (on Myhome) you will be amazed to see how many are empty - some are unfurnished so they may have been empty for a while.
"may be holiday homes" may be.
Thats not a definite statement at all. They don't say that are holiday homes and they don't say where they got the 115,000 figure so I'm afraid that not really worth anything.
They are not stating a fact and are not giving a reason for their assumptions so its as good as pulling a number from thin air I'm afraid.
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this is absolutely true; but those with Holiday homes (115k of them, see above) would be assumed to be the better off, its certainly fair to say; and will be better able to take the hit on a downturn than those mortgaged up to the ears in their PPR.
good to see you have an open mind!
it comes from the Davy housing report.
page 2.
take from it whatever you want; i'm not shoving any view on anyone. was merely contesting this 300k properties unoccupied lark; "not including holiday and second homes".
I'm surrounded by bears, just waiting for things to crash. I'm not saying we're not getting a downturn (bacause we probably are already IN one), but I'm certainly not looking forward to it, and I won;'t be on the " see, i told you so" brigade.
ok, doke, I'll take a look at that and see if they list their assumptions or sources, thanks.
no worries; although it does beg the question: who among us didn't do the research on the rental market, and bought anyway(?)
those cheap(er) 3-beds in the tiny west tipperary village will be easy to rent .... won't they?
Right so, I had a read of it and the 50% holiday homes is a guess made by Davey's..
On the basis of the trends summarised in the table above we reckon the number of vacant properties will have risen to about 230,000 by April of 2006. That is the equivalent of just over 13.5% of the stock. But we still cannot break down this number as between holiday homes, unlet investment properties and stocks held by builders. A best guess might be that about half of these vacant properties are holiday homes.
/edit removed line to reduce smugness
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Absolutely!
I think there are a lot of investors who did little or no research on these things. Unfortunatly a lot of these have leveraged their homes on these BTL investments and it could all end up horribly for some people
P
plaudit
Guest
I have a tiny mortgage, so I more or less own my property outright, its valued around €350K. However I would love to see the market crash and my house devalue 50% to €175K.
S
Sidewinder
Guest
And even if they are right and it's only about 120K vacant "investment" properties, and even assuming that in the event of an economic downturn everyone can still afford the upkeep on their 120K holiday/second homes...
When you add the additional approx. 50K units completed since April...
That's at least 3 years worth of supply, lying around empty, before the stampede for the exits even begins
it sounds like you intend living in that house for the rest of your life, (which is perfectly fine btw). However, if thats the case, then you have absolutely nothing to lose (or gain) in the housing market.... ever.
N
Neffa
Guest
And even if they are right and it's only about 120K vacant "investment" properties, and even assuming that in the event of an economic downturn everyone can still afford the upkeep on their 120K holiday/second homes...
When you add the additional approx. 50K units completed since April...
That's at least 3 years worth of supply, lying around empty, before the stampede for the exits even begins
And that was my exact point to the original suggestion that just because there has been a fall in new planning permits that the "nose dive has been stopped" was not right - there is already a huge overhang so a moderation now is hardly suprising but not enough to give us the "soft landing" so beloved of Irish economists employed by estate agents.
correct; but public perception is what runs a wobbly market; and thats why you will never see a property supplement telling us the end is nigh. Its like comical Ali as the tanks rolled into Baghdad! denial to the (bitter) end
People on this board (by n large
) tend to be clued in. The general population is not however.We see the signs, and the signs say 'crash'; but the other 90% are blind to the signs, and so the market lands softer than expected.
as someone posted here a few days back: why would anyone buy a house in Ireland right now/today? instead of waiting and seeing what the end of 2006 brings (and another .5% rate rise in the meantime).
If prices keep going up; you're safe that it won't be only a few %. If it drops, you will have been right to wait.
But thats not how it works
Raskolnikov
Registered User
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I'm surprised that no one mentioned Eddie Hobbs' program that was on last night? The program was about 30 ways to invest your SSIA. He said that "property would be the graveyard for a huge number of SSIA's". Whatever people say about David McWilliams, The Economist or whoever, I would bet that Eddie Hobbs' comments will be a big factor in deterring investment into property.
Also, I'm surprised that no one has mentioned the ESRI/PermanentTSB house price index for August which is at 1%.
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As for current market trends regarding house prices? In Cork City there are a huge amount of properties for sale. I would go as far as saying, I've never seen so much property for sale in all my life. On the College Rd near the UCC car park I counted 7 houses for sale within 20 metres of each other.
Also, I'm surprised that no one has mentioned the ESRI/PermanentTSB house price index for August which is at 1%.
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As for current market trends regarding house prices? In Cork City there are a huge amount of properties for sale. I would go as far as saying, I've never seen so much property for sale in all my life. On the College Rd near the UCC car park I counted 7 houses for sale within 20 metres of each other.
all investor property. the market is flooded with it at the moment; bourne out of high interest rates, and low/no capital appreciation
P
plaudit
Guest
Not quite paddy, I would consider upgrading if the market is right. Suppose I choose to upgrade to something 50% bigger and more expensive. Thats a 525K house, I need to spend 525-350=175K. If the market falls by 50% then this house becomes 262.5K and my house is 175K. That means to upgrade costs 87.5K instead of 175K. I also save on stamp duty and solicitors as they are all based on %.
Raskolnikov
Registered User
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In fairness though, I would only consider the prices of the properties I mentioned being slightly inflated.
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4 bedroomed place for €370,000 five minutes walk from the city centre and (literally) a stone's throw from the college. €330,000 or so would be a fair price.
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