Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

[paddyd]

Not quite paddy, I would consider upgrading if the market is right. Suppose I choose to upgrade to something 50% bigger and more expensive. Thats a 525K house, I need to spend 525-350=175K. If the market falls by 50% then this house becomes 262.5K and my house is 175K. That means to upgrade costs 87.5K instead of 175K. I also save on stamp duty and solicitors as they are all based on %.

that does make a crash sound attractive alright
although I'm not sure i'd be relying on things turning out that way!

and a 50% drop would have a massive effect on the economy too; so perhaps you won't have a job?

(unless you work in our civil service, naturally)

 

[room305]

Suppose I choose to upgrade to something 50% bigger and more expensive. Thats a 525K house, I need to spend 525-350=175K. If the market falls by 50% then this house becomes 262.5K and my house is 175K. That means to upgrade costs 87.5K instead of 175K. I also save on stamp duty and solicitors as they are all based on %.

Housing hyper-inflation really only suits:

a) Developers
b) Multiple property owners
c) Downsizers
d) The debt industry

For those of us who don't view houses as a vehicle for profit and who don't own a jumbo-mortgage, any correction in housing should be welcome.

 

[Sidewinder]

In fairness though, I would only consider the prices of the properties I mentioned being slightly inflated.

[broken link removed]=

4 bedroomed place for €370,000 five minutes walk from the city centre and (literally) a stone's throw from the college. €330,000 or so would be a fair price.

You have to be kidding. An old terraced house "in need of upgrading"? Even in a good location as you say that house would by historical standards (pre-bubble, and adjusted for inflation in the interim) be worth maybe €100K. In 1998 you'd have been very lucky to get IR£60K for it.

That's the scale of this bubble. It's completely nuts. People seem detached from the reality of the prices they are paying, it's all just monopoly money random numbers to them, they just aren't making the connection in their heads to their actual wages and income.

 

[fatmanknows]

Anybody wanna buy a Hammer -

Today's Results for Lisney's


View the latest auction results here!


Date of Auction: 03/10/2006
Address: Suncroft, Newtownpark Ave, Blackrock, Co Dublin
AMV: € 2.4m
Auction Result: Withdrawn, now quoting €2.4m
Estate Agent: Lisney

Date of Auction: 03/10/2006
Address: 27 St Mary Road, Ballsbridge, Co Dublin
AMV: € 5.5m
Auction Result: Withdrawn, now quoting €6m
Estate Agent: Lisney

Date of Auction: 03/10/2006
Address: 83 Carysford Downs, Blackrock, Co Dublin
AMV: € 1.4m
Auction Result: Withdrawn, now quoting €1.47m
Estate Agent: Lisney

Date of Auction: 03/10/2006
Address: Charleville, Newtownpark Ave, Blackrock, Co Dublin
AMV: € 3m
Auction Result: Withdrawn, now quoting €3.3m
Estate Agent: Lisney

Date of Auction: 03/10/2006
Address: 3 Kilteragh Pines, Foxrock, Dublin 18
AMV: € 3.2m
Auction Result: Withdrawn, now quoting €3.2m
Estate Agent: Lisney

 

[Sidewinder]

Ummmm....what's with the tactic of withdrawing a house from auction (presumably for lack of interest) and then raising your asking price???

 

[miju]

Of the 300k vacant houses, 2/3's are second/holiday homes, the rest being unlet investment properties (100k unlet is still quite large, granted).

it's actually more like 260,000 are unoccupied (presumed investment properties) with the rest of the figure being made up of holiday homes

but even going by your figures 100,000 vacant homes is a MASSIVE amount of property just waiting to flood the market

 

[plaudit]

Is that a full list of Lisneys auctions for today or just the failures?

Putting in guide prices at or above auction price is just a face saving exercise IMO. Contact them next week and see how much they have fallen.

 

[Raskolnikov]

Even in a good location as you say that house would by historical standards (pre-bubble, and adjusted for inflation in the interim) be worth maybe €100K.

Not a snowballs chance in hell you'll ever get a house like that for €100,000 or even €200,000 ever again.

€330,000 is a rough figure at where the mortgage would exceed the rental income. Perhaps it's a little high, but I wouldn't say by much.

 

[miju]

Ummmm....what's with the tactic of withdrawing a house from auction (presumably for lack of interest) and then raising your asking price???

with auctions you'd expect the final price to be higher than the guesstimated value

so when they are withdrawn and go to private treaty they get a more "realistic" guesstimate

makes perfect sense doesn't it? a property doesn't sell so we'll up the price

 

[redo]

correct; but public perception is what runs a wobbly market; and thats why you will never see a property supplement telling us the end is nigh. Its like comical Ali as the tanks rolled into Baghdad! denial to the (bitter) end

People on this board (by n large ) tend to be clued in. The general population is not however.
We see the signs, and the signs say 'crash'; but the other 90% are blind to the signs, and so the market lands softer than expected.

as someone posted here a few days back: why would anyone buy a house in Ireland right now/today? instead of waiting and seeing what the end of 2006 brings (and another .5% rate rise in the meantime).
If prices keep going up; you're safe that it won't be only a few %. If it drops, you will have been right to wait.

But thats not how it works

http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b226/roryireland/07-minister3.jpg

http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b226/roryireland/separated.jpg

 

[Maine]

How will the irish crash affect property in say Poland. Had thought about buying there but wonder if the money dries up here will that affect the prices abroad. Are we a mini-America to some places in eastern europe.

Irish purchasing abroad will be concentrated in various developments. If the property mania ends you could have some short term investors ( soon to be FTBs in ireland) off loading to get back into the irish market. These may in the end be prepared to take a loss to get out. Hence some paddy developments could have a number of irish developers looking to exit at same time = price drops. To some extent there is alot less diversification in risk in that it is still related to market back home.

If US economy achieves soft landing ( some house crashes but not a deep national one) = continuing demand for oil and german exports = growth in germany = higher interest rates in EU and would have less cuts in US interest rates. Overall this could be bad for irish housing market as higher EU interest rates cause problems ?

 

[Maine]

http://www.daft.ie/searchrental.daft?search=1&s[cc_id]=ct1&s[a_id]=ga4&s[mnp]=2000&s[mxp]=&s[bd_no]=&s[search_type]=rental&s[refreshmap]=1&offset=20&limit=10&search_type=rental&id=404112

[broken link removed]=

House which has been for rent for while with no takers now gone on the market for sale.

7135 over 35 years now = probably 7500 by december to buy or 3750 to rent.

1.8m plus costs and stamp = 2m at say 5% = 100,000 interest only. 45,000 to rent ( probably could get it for less)

 

[zac]

I justed shorted a Irish residential house builder (can’t mention who). Does that make me a bear

walk2dewater, yes that does make you bear but im rather interested in property transactions

thanks

 

[zac]

Just wondering how many real bears exist on this board, those who are bearish and have bet on it using their money i.e.

owners who sold recently to move to rental property, or
investors who reduced(or increased) their irish residential properties recently i.e. last few months(or 2006).
please reply.

those with just opinions please do not respond to this post.


ps. is there a need for a new thread for this poll?

so far we have discovered 4 real bears, who sold within 1 year period and now renting.

also 1 or 2 who sold in last couple of years for multiple reasons, including travel, going abroad etc etc and dint buy on their return, so i guess we can call them half real bears.

any more? there should be lot more here seeing peoples sentiment here in general.

 

[fatmanknows]

I justed shorted a Irish residential house builder (can’t mention who). Does that make me a bear

With a Winter of Discontent ahead of us - you'll not go far wrong discarding yer Mac's and wrapping yerself up in a good Bearskin.

Heard from an excellent source today that the top bod in a leading EA confided to him that the game is up and that the crash is unavoidable.

 

[conor_mc]

so far we have discovered 4 real bears, who sold within 1 year period and now renting.

also 1 or 2 who sold in last couple of years for multiple reasons, including travel, going abroad etc etc and dint buy on their return, so i guess we can call them half real bears.

any more? there should be lot more here seeing peoples sentiment here in general.

I'm a bear.... my significant other isn't..... so I regret to say I'm ineligible to join the distinguished list of those whose actions speak louder than words.

I am working on it though.

In fairness though, quite a lot of people here might harbour bearish sentiment, but it's another thing to expect them to prove their bona fides by selling up their PPR from underneath their family. It suits some people, but others may be willing to ride out a downturn.

It's a common misconception on this thread that every house needs to be assessed on its investment merits. Some people just want a home to live in.

 

[conor_mc]

this is absolutely true; but those with Holiday homes (115k of them, see above) would be assumed to be the better off, its certainly fair to say; and will be better able to take the hit on a downturn than those mortgaged up to the ears in their PPR.

Don't underestimate the level of debt these "better off" people may be carrying. Property has been a huge cash-cow for a lot of the nouveu rich in this country.... those better off and owning a second home today could well be tomorrows version of the dotcom paper millionaires, except with leverage....

 

[bogwarrior]

Article in todays Sydney Morning Herald on how the property slowdown there is affecting people in the outer suburbs of the city, the slump has been deeper there (your Lucans of the world)than in the North Shore or Eastern Suburbs (think southside Dublin) - SMH.

But by Christmas 2003 sentiment across the city had turned: the boom was over. The median Sydney house price dropped about 10 per cent before stabilising this year. But the slump has been deeper and more prolonged in the west and southwest. The latest figures show that prices continued to fall there last financial year.

and

In a cruel twist, the proportion of new investors in wealthy parts of Sydney rose very little as the boom approached its zenith. In one Sydney local government area with a median house price of $1.2 million (not named by the bank) the proportion of investors dropped in 2003-04. It was the opposite in the west and south-west. Tax Office figures analysed by the Reserve Bank show that in at least 15 Sydney local government areas with below average median house prices the proportion of investors rose in 2003-04. Thousands of neophyte investors were getting into property at the same time in the same area.

 

[Afuera]

€330,000 is a rough figure at where the mortgage would exceed the rental income. Perhaps it's a little high, but I wouldn't say by much.

Are you basing that on current mortgage rates though? Using your system for measuring the correct value of the property would mean that it's value would get knocked down by about 40k with every interest rate percentage rise.

 

[phoenix_n]

any more? there should be lot more here seeing peoples sentiment here in general.

I sold my property and now am also renting. I walk to work and pay meager rent. Invested proceeds in a german recovery.