Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

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Just wondering how many real bears exist on this board, those who are bearish and have bet on it using their money i.e.

owners who sold recently to move to rental property, or
investors who reduced(or increased) their irish residential properties recently i.e. last few months(or 2006).
please reply.

those with just opinions please do not respond to this post.


ps. is there a need for a new thread for this poll?
 
Neffa said:
Agreed. However, if you search in the nicer areas of London (try postcodes SW6, N1, W4, SW11 from £500K upwards) you'll be amazed how much cheaper it is to buy there. Bristol, Edinburgh etc. are cheaper still.
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Yeah but that's cos England hasn't had the same immigration as Ireland, and London's not a financial centre like Dublin and the English don't like owning their own homes etc. etc
 
Isn't a person with the money to buy, but who's holding back for prices to fall a 'real' bear?
 


Inherited a house last year, flogged it, renting now.
 
I justed shorted a Irish residential house builder (can’t mention who). Does that make me a bear
 
hi zac,

im not rich enough to be a bear in the irish property market but my dad just sold the family home...may 2005. for 3.5 million. its all in the bank and he´s renting a house. he´s a smart guy. but pretty bearish in general and pessimistic. IMO

but it looks to me like the market is turning. IMO
 


I have gone 'sale agreed' on my place - south dublin - bought at 365k in 2004 sold at 600k recently. going renting & invest the money elsewhere. Any more like me ? Or am i nuts and on my own?
 
Neffa said:
Not sure that ending up with 300,000 vacant properties (see the census, McWilliams etc.) counts as "pulling the nose up".
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mmmm, but believe it or not there has been a lot of cash in the country for the past few years, and most of the vacant houses are actually Holiday Homes and not for rent. Of the 300k vacant houses, 2/3's are second/holiday homes, the rest being unlet investment properties (100k unlet is still quite large, granted).

p.s. don't believe everything McWilliams says. Its always a personal slant.
Hobb's and himself are the self-styled saviours of us all.
 
murray said:
I have gone 'sale agreed' on my place - south dublin - bought at 365k in 2004 sold at 600k recently. going renting & invest the money elsewhere. Any more like me ? Or am i nuts and on my own?
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Let hope everything completes and the purchasers don't pull out. It is a very stressfull time.
 
ALSO zac,

i´ve been pessimistic since 2001. waited out of housing market since 2001. I have the price of a house in the bank since then. what a mistake.
hindsight is a great thing ha ha! but i believe that houses will come back to 2001 levels over the next 3 years. we have a productivity problem in the economy. IMO. we are not genuinely productive as a nation compared with the uk and europe. there is no shortage of land. BTW you only make money when you pull the money out.
 

OH NO - HOK have realised that the juicy gravy train (i.e. new builds) they've been on for the last number of years is coming to an end and they're going to be seriously short of budgeted targets for the future, so therefore spin this spurious sh!te. Serious shuffling in the Boardroom as HOK rebrand from being the 'New Home Specialist' to something else! If anyones in marketing, tap them up quick!
 
zac said:
Just wondering how many real bears exist on this board, those who are bearish and have bet on it using their money i.e.
...
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Sold a nice period Edwardian house in Dublin North area 2 years ago while on a year out of the country for a tidy profit.
Rent a 100 sqm appartment now in D3.
Cash for a significant deposit but renting, till I can buy a reasonably sized 3 bed, in decent condition, in Dublin North East area, at a price related to rent ie (1500-1600 pm for a 30 yr 75% LTV mtg).
If it doesn't work out for me over the next 4 years I'm out of here ( I hate this city for its lack of infrastructure and stupid prices).
The important thing for me isn't timing the market it's about buying a house I can afford in an area I want to live for it's utility value.

I'm a huge bear now and have been a bear for 3 years. I forsee the biggest property crash (50%-70%) in history anywhere in the world. Otherwise this country (as it currently is) is pointless. The government can't devalue the currency this time to get us out of inflationary trouble. All they can do is raise taxes. Lack of monetary policy is something that I believe is sorrily under regarded by economists, governement and Joe Soaps. This has never been the case before anywhere in the world. It's virgin territory.
 
sold out ages ago, bought and sold again, have money salted away in a few interesting schemes / shares....not gold...

pessimmistic on certain irish building firms, esp the one doing big business in canary wharf and another who signed huge deal for a shopping centre / apartment complex in poland...
 

I sold my PPR - an apartment in D8 last year; bought in 2000. Had multiple reasons for sale - was working abroad for a while and then going travelling, didn't want to join the landlord class, place had history of electrical issues - water pump, washing machine, storage heaters, extractor fans had all needed repair, 200+ unit of social opening next door, whole apartment was north facing so very little daylight and I was glad to be shot of it really.
Felt a little guilty when sold for c.35K more than I wanted\deserved. Since then seems the prices have shot up another 70K-80K approx for the same complex. I was mortgage free so was happy to have the money released and available while I decided where I wanted to live next on my return.
I wasn't going renting but it seems like a huge risk to gamble on a big drop and go renting instead.
I would find wishing for a crash a bit weird as I know the hardship it would cause friends of mine who are not speculating, just trying to have a suitable home for their families.
 

Nope, the census enumerators believed they were permanently unoccupied - many had no electric connection! 100K unlet is not that large, 5% of the housing stock (on 1.9m units). 300K is eye-popping.
 

This is repeated on the thread so often it is becoming tedious. Where did you get this 2/3 figure from?
 
room305 said:
This is repeated on the thread so often it is becoming tedious. Where did you get this 2/3 figure from?
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From the Hibernian Investment Managers site (HIM). They called it 'vast majority'. As we love our figures and facts here, i assumed 2/3's.
Will try find the link again

Edit: did a search on google just now and turned up a number of articales to the same effect. Even Davy's was one of them: 'Over 40% of houses built in the past two years are lying vacant as second homes, holiday homes or unlet investment properties.'
Unlet investments would not be as large a slice as holiday homes or 2nd homes. Investors cannot afford to leave property unrented, and assuming you did a whim of research, bought in a rentable area (rule #1 for buying rental property you'd think)
 
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