Z
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d) about as likely to last till May as the Taoiseach
August 2006 was one of the biggest months on record for mortgage and private sector borrowing ever. We are going to hit 300,000,000,000 of private sector debt (includes mortgages) in September.
International reviewers in 2007 will run out of ways to describe the scale of private sector debt in ireland.
The Central Bank is trying to spin it as a slowdown as they want an orderly slowdown in borrowing and the economy as they know foreign bankers are bemused by the situation here and that irish banks borrow heavily from abroad hence confidence needs to be maintained.
Re no bulls here look at the media reports in past 2 weeks. Also look at the jobs situation and our export / import balances yesterday to see those that are dealing outside the irish economy are struggling.
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good stuff, dint think we had many well qualified ppl here
you can share your qualification if you feel like, always good to listen to well qualified ppl.
I think that the quality of the postings speak volumes for the calibre of the people who post on this board (present company excepted). This is a debate zac so debate.
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zac
Guest
miju article appeared on finfacts a months or so ago, doing a search might find it for ya
i think its hardly surprising to hear a ftb saying that prices will go up
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Slicknik
Guest
You can fix your mortgage interest for a long period of tmie which gives you full control over the interest you pay. The same can hardly be said for a rented place where the price will fluctuate up and down depending on the market conditions.
/Nik
fatmanknows
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StoppedClock
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baby_tooth
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with rate rises moderating.....!!!
rates are still at a hisotrical low level, the long term average rate in the euro zone is approx 5.5 - 6 %.
whos to say the ECB won't push up rate to 4.5% and let the economy settle, this will bring about real productivity growth and asset price correction, when the dollar drops, which it will in the medium term, then the ecb have the scope to drop rates again to stimulate eu out of a recession....
and bear in mind, that alot of credit in europe is drying up, the bottom has fallen out of the us bond market...
if your a german bank, who would you lend to...england, aussie, iceland, china, india, emerging markets and get a pretty much riskless return or aprox 6% or ireland paying eu rates of 3.75% (euribor)....
all this will, case is guessing when, have a huge effect on irish house prices.
PPL in ireland seem to have gotten all their sums wrong on their house price increase.
Eg: 400K House.
You pay out 400k now and pay back at interest rates of 3.25% plus margin. Now ppl seem to have this fascination with looking at capital appreciation, but are not factoring in a discount factor...they are using the same interest rate they are paying on as the discount factor for their "possible" returns.
Take a bank like BOI or AIB which pretty much give a market reflection of the Irish property play. These would have a discount factor of 10 - 12% ...which is still considered very low risk (international sentiment changing here so share prices will drop to reflect risk)...making present value of your cash flows alot smaller than ppl think.
i must say that i am sitting on the sidelines on this one, watching with morbid fascination as this ecconomic oddity unravels before me.
On a side note:
PPL go on about Japan and the boom in the eighties there...has alot of similarities to here
Might be of interest to know that the Japanesse remortaged alot of their property in this period and used it to buy into "lifestyle" ""assets""...like the irish and their conservatories, plasmas and high-end motors.
They just did it with golf club memberships - their, at the time, idea of a reflection of status. Did you know that there was a Nikkei Index of Golf club memberships back through the eighties and into the ninties....its an interesting graph to watch....and one of the reasons that they have seen asset deprecation year on year to recover since it's bang!.
excuse spellings.
rates are still at a hisotrical low level, the long term average rate in the euro zone is approx 5.5 - 6 %.
whos to say the ECB won't push up rate to 4.5% and let the economy settle, this will bring about real productivity growth and asset price correction, when the dollar drops, which it will in the medium term, then the ecb have the scope to drop rates again to stimulate eu out of a recession....
and bear in mind, that alot of credit in europe is drying up, the bottom has fallen out of the us bond market...
if your a german bank, who would you lend to...england, aussie, iceland, china, india, emerging markets and get a pretty much riskless return or aprox 6% or ireland paying eu rates of 3.75% (euribor)....
all this will, case is guessing when, have a huge effect on irish house prices.
PPL in ireland seem to have gotten all their sums wrong on their house price increase.
Eg: 400K House.
You pay out 400k now and pay back at interest rates of 3.25% plus margin. Now ppl seem to have this fascination with looking at capital appreciation, but are not factoring in a discount factor...they are using the same interest rate they are paying on as the discount factor for their "possible" returns.
Take a bank like BOI or AIB which pretty much give a market reflection of the Irish property play. These would have a discount factor of 10 - 12% ...which is still considered very low risk (international sentiment changing here so share prices will drop to reflect risk)...making present value of your cash flows alot smaller than ppl think.
i must say that i am sitting on the sidelines on this one, watching with morbid fascination as this ecconomic oddity unravels before me.
On a side note:
PPL go on about Japan and the boom in the eighties there...has alot of similarities to here
Might be of interest to know that the Japanesse remortaged alot of their property in this period and used it to buy into "lifestyle" ""assets""...like the irish and their conservatories, plasmas and high-end motors.
They just did it with golf club memberships - their, at the time, idea of a reflection of status. Did you know that there was a Nikkei Index of Golf club memberships back through the eighties and into the ninties....its an interesting graph to watch....and one of the reasons that they have seen asset deprecation year on year to recover since it's bang!.
excuse spellings.
He's trading up though isn't he? So he's not actually taking his cards off the table. You'd think the guru of prudence would see that it is cheaper to rent?
true, but then you are paying over the odds then. Also rents have been flat for the last 6 years, so I dont' expect them to change any time soon.
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zac
Guest
Duplex my opinion doesnt matter, it would only matter if i was short fatmanknows housing futures... looking forward to them whenever they come out,
wouldnt mind living in owned property rather than rental and then hedging the risk for the short term.
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MadPad
Guest
I dont 100% agree on interest being dead money, or even on rent being dead money... Credit has been good to the ordinary man all over the last 100 years, it's enabled people to reach a certain level of wealth, by buying assets over time that they can use to generate more wealth or live in some level of independent comfort. I come from the background that you are better off owning and oweing nothing to anyone as soon as possible and am horrified at the duration of mortgages today...
If you owe nothing, then worst case, you can close the door and the landlords/banks/bertie et all can go f themselves..
Unfortunately, short of saving hard for many many years, or winning a dail seat... you'll need a mortgage to put a roof over your head and be able to plan to not worry about the roof over your head in X years. You dont really want to be past retirement and having to come up with a rent check for some landlord (or even some bank) do you? This may be an irish peasant mentality, but i dont really care.....
You dont own the house till the last payment but the banks do let you live in it while you pay it off, which is good of them
You could argue that the interest part of a mortgage plus house maintenance costs is the dead money (should be the same as the rent), not the full part of the mortgage, assuming of course the underlying asset keeps its value.
Yeah, you do have control over the rent, you can move easier. You cant paint the kitchen purple or whatever, so theres trade offs there ....
CelloPoint
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House prices at their current levels are excluding one part of society from the fruits of the economy. Some would say that this is because they don't work hard enough - you must work harder if you want to live inside the M50. This is a lie - and is akin to the way those in Victorian times believed that poor people were poor because they were incapable of anything else (the thought that poor people were poor because of social/societal structures never entered the minds of the upper classes). Never before in the Republic of Ireland have so many hard-working people had to live in such awful conditions consisting of long commutes, management companies and the inability to procreate.
Economic success for the individual should be based on merit, and not on cute-hoorism (even if this is not actually the case, we should at least aspire to it being this way). We're essentially living in a scaled-up version of Orwell's animal farm. There's a bunch of pigs in charge in Dail Eireann, and those commuters are nothing but hard-working donkeys.
Economic success for the individual should be based on merit, and not on cute-hoorism (even if this is not actually the case, we should at least aspire to it being this way). We're essentially living in a scaled-up version of Orwell's animal farm. There's a bunch of pigs in charge in Dail Eireann, and those commuters are nothing but hard-working donkeys.
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zac
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baby tooth last i checked 10 yr was still trading at 7 months high, did bottom fell out pre market?
Somone learned how to do that from the boards.ie thread
You have over 1000 posts in total, when you search in your profile it shows 42 threads containing posts from you. Hope that clarifies things.I was surprised by the number of posts (102) that I supposedly had made. I went into my own profile and asked to see all posts by Liteweight. Counted them and it came to 42 give or take. If this count has been done automatically using names, e.g. 'search Liteweight' with automatic count, it may well be including posts where people quoted me, hence to 102 posts.
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