Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

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howstrange said:
http://www.unison.ie/breakingnews/index.php3?ca=35&si=99106

ESRI reckons interest rates will come down over the next few years due to low inflation next year........ Another roll of a 6 for the irish housing market???
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They haven't a clue whats going to happen. IF Oil goes to $100 for instance then inflation rockets. On top of this if the Euro goes towards parity with the dollar then the already expensive Oil becomes €2/litre at the pumps.
 
howstrange said:
http://www.unison.ie/breakingnews/index.php3?ca=35&si=99106

ESRI reckons interest rates will come down over the next few years due to low inflation next year........ Another roll of a 6 for the irish housing market???
Click to expand...

Here's the ESRI report:
[broken link removed]

What they actually say is:

"The continued increases in ECB interest rates will lead to further increases in mortgage re-payments. However, the forecast of the group suggests that the end to interest rate increases is in sight. "

They are saying what most people on this thread are expecting - an end to increases next year but they do not mention interest rates coming down.
 
fatmanknows said:
I expect EA's will be leaving their 'SOLD' flags on properties for as long as they possibly can to create the illusion of a balanced market.
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What I've noticed recently also, on recently completed new builds (Clondalkin, Aras na Cluaine) where there is a lot new To Let and For Sale signs, some new company comes along trying to steal/compete for business by putting up SOLD or LET BY signs when there were no previous signs from this company.
 
whathome said:
Here's the ESRI report:
[broken link removed]

What they actually say is:

"The continued increases in ECB interest rates will lead to further increases in mortgage re-payments. However, the forecast of the group suggests that the end to interest rate increases is in sight. "

They are saying what most people on this thread are expecting - an end to increases next year but they do not mention interest rates coming down.
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It was clearly being reported this morning that there would be NO further ECB rates rises in 2007,i would contend that this is completely at odds with some of the posters on this thread who IMHO know what they are talking about.
 
howstrange said:
http://www.unison.ie/breakingnews/index.php3?ca=35&si=99106

ESRI reckons interest rates will come down over the next few years due to low inflation next year........ Another roll of a 6 for the irish housing market???
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Yeeeeeee Haaaaaaawwwwwwwwww!!!! Were saved!!!!!!!
Now where was the link to that flat in drumcondra....sure its only 900k, and rates are coming down..... jump in and get it for 850 while the markets soft, bargain!
 
MadPad said:
Yeeeeeee Haaaaaaawwwwwwwwww!!!! Were saved!!!!!!!
Now where was the link to that flat in drumcondra....sure its only 900k, and rates are coming down..... jump in and get it for 850 while the markets soft, bargain!
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Dont think so!! But i think reports like these could prolong the party as peoples sentiment may get more bullish again. Vendors may hold back on selling that house for a while. They may think this slowdown we are having at the moment is just a blip and not to panic as IR may start coming back down. It certainly gives more ammunition to the likes of Austin Hughes and EA;s etc etc..
 
bren2002 said:
Brendan should go on The LAst Word with a synopsis of this thread and have a proper discussion for 20 minutes. Although, I don't remember Brendan posting on this thread, so maybe he has a different opinion!
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I've heard brendan on the last word(i think!) recommending that ftb's should go with I/O mortgages to start off with,while maybe good advice to the financially savvy IMHO telling the masses to do this is questionable advice.
People who don't know exactly what they are doing are likely to get themselves in over their head by overborrowing as everyone these days including the lenders seem to be looking at the repayment rate above anything else, when the I/O period is over your repayments will substancially increase,many people are not actually aware of this.
Going down the I/O road will just lead to a massive increase in house prices anyway and is of no benefit to the economy.
If i've quoted the boss incorrectly,i'm sure i'll be corrected and i'm really really sorry :) .
 
thewatcher said:
I've heard brendan on the last word(i think!) recommending that ftb's should go with I/O mortgages to start off with,while maybe good advice to the financially savvy IMHO telling the masses to do this is questionable advice.
People who don't know exactly what they are doing are likely to get themselves in over their head by overborrowing as everyone these days including the lenders seem to be looking at the repayment rate above anything else, when the I/O period is over your repayments will substancially increase,many people are not actually aware of this.
Going down the I/O road will just lead to a massive increase in house prices anyway and is of no benefit to the economy.
If i've quoted the boss incorrectly,i'm sure i'll be corrected and i'm really really sorry :) .
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You haven't misquoted Brendan atall.

http://www.askaboutmoney.com/showthread.php?t=28492
http://www.askaboutmoney.com/showthread.php?t=28195&page=2

A number of posters have tried to debate him a couple of times on this but to no avail. Still, it's his opinion and he's entitled to it.
 
Howitzer said:
A couple of posters have tried to debate him a couple of times on this but to no avail. Still, it's his opinion and he's entitled to it.
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I understand his point that you are better off on IO in the first few years so that you can enjoy life more while young - rising salary should make repayments more manageable in a few years. If buyers limit the amount to what they would have taken on a non IO loan then this works out ok.

The problem is, borrowers use IO to maximise their borrowings rather than manage repayments so they end up in a far more precarious position with rising interest rates.
 
Private sector borrowing has slowed - August figures released by the Central Bank today (reported Indo, IT, Irish Business Post).

A reflection of weakening sentiment? And/or weakening ability?
 
ESRI report is based on the opinion of the European Economics Institutes who suggest that interest rates are not going to go above 3.5% because of reducing inflationary pressures. this is probable as a result of the flash estimate from the ECB showing that eurozone inflation has fallen to 1.8% in September as a result of falling oil prices.

This does not however take into account the rise in inflation to be expected early next year due to the rise in German VAT rates.

The money markets seem to be expecting 4%
 
whathome said:
The problem is, borrowers use IO to maximise their borrowings rather than manage repayments so they end up in a far more precarious position with rising interest rates.
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Thats about the size of it,

financially savvy - possibly good advice
joe bloggs - bad bad advice

In a rational market - possibly good advice
In the irish market - pushes the price of property up for everybody

Brendan's not a bear either,i think.2pack for the airwaves !:D
 
Bad week nationwide on the jobs front
[broken link removed]

"Unilever said it was transferring the jobs at its Inchicore plant to other facilities in Europe because the Dublin operation could not compete efficiently."

"The job losses come 24 hours after Banta Corporation in Cork, a printing company, said it was shifting work done at its Cork plant to the Czech Republic with the loss of 200 jobs out from its workforce of 350 people. Of the job losses, some 150 are permanent positions."

So the immigrants are coming to Ireland to do the low paying jobs the Irish would not work at. Now Irish based companies are moving manufacturing jobs abroad because Irish are too high. Catch 22. Of the 150 permanent positions lost in Cork, how many of these wages went towards mortgages? Dell are also opening a plant in Poland which will no doubt see job losses in Limerick. This a growing trend. How many 400k mortgages can sustained on minimum hourly wages...
 
gearoidmm said:
ESRI report is based on the opinion of the European Economics Institutes who suggest that interest rates are not going to go above 3.5% because of reducing inflationary pressures. this is probable as a result of the flash estimate from the ECB showing that eurozone inflation has fallen to 1.8% in September as a result of falling oil prices.
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I just posted about this over in the thread and was wondering if the recent drop in oil price has had time to filter through yet into the inflation index, I would doubt they have.
 
As theres no bulls on the thread, i think its only fair to draw your attention to...

http://www.unison.ie/irish_independent/stories.php3?ca=303&si=1697695&issue_id=14713

According to UCD economics lecturer Colm McCarty: "The strength of demand is the real bread and butter of the property sector and while prices may have peaked in the second hand sector, this does not mean a crash."

..........


Eddie Hobbs agrees, saying: "Poor auction results do not mean Armageddon, and anyone who thinks so demonstrates a complete lack of understanding of what a crash actually means. Our economy is ....
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On the printed version the headline for the continuation is
No end to boom
...
Marie Hunt of CBRE Gunne also laments the unfounded negativity that is starting to creep in. "The second hand housing market is showing signs of price stablisation but some new home buyers are getting nervous because of interest rate movements. This is more indicatative of a steady transition to more stable condition than a sign of a crash or bubble bursting."
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I'll labour this point because it is crucial as to what is likely to happen to our little nation over the next decade. An analogy; celebrating falling interest rates in Ireland is akin to Kalahari bushmen celebrating when it stops raining in the desert. If the US dives into a recession in the near future interest rates will fall (recessions are deflationary, unemployment rises, spending falls) central banks will seek to reflate as they have in every recession in the past (see link). However you cannot reflate a bubble, (see Japan 1990 to date) the recession will end when productivity increases in other sectors of the economy. I would imagine that the ECB will require concrete evidence that the US is in recession before starting to ease, and they wont have to look outside Europe for confirmation. :(
 
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Duplex said:
Why don't the bulls come on here and debate? Or maybe the Indo or Times would accept an article from members of this board who are in agreement that a property bubble exists in Ireland?
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could it be that only those who have missed the boat hang out here?
could it be that they are too busy counting their cash or shopping from their equity withdrawls?
maybe we have only those ppl here who cant afford to buy and waiting for a crash so that they can buy?
 
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