Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

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zac said:
could it be that only those who have missed the boat hang out here?
could it be that they are too busy counting their cash or shopping from their equity withdrawls?
maybe we have only those ppl here who cant afford to buy and waiting for a crash so that they can buy?
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This thread is about sentiment. Are there any bulls left or have a lot of them turned bearish - thats the real question.

I have property assets, and have done very well over the last 10 years, I am bearish on the property market at the moment though.
 
zac said:
could it be that only those who have missed the boat hang out here?
could it be that they are too busy counting their cash or shopping from their equity withdrawls?
maybe we have only those ppl here who cant afford to buy and waiting for a crash so that they can buy?
Click to expand...


That might be it Zac. :confused: But its more likely that they cant construct a credible argument?
 
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plaudit said:
This thread is about sentiment. Are there any bulls left or have a lot of them turned bearish - thats the real question.

I have property assets, and have done very well over the last 10 years, I am bearish on the property market at the moment though.
Click to expand...

this might not be the right place place to guage sentiment...

ppl that i talk to who own property are usually cautiously bullish, as in prices wont crash, cant go up like the last yr for ever, will stablise, level off etc

ppl who dont own are usually bearish..

looking at these pages i get impression that 90%+ at bearish, survery conducted on ftb suggested 90%+ think prices gonna go up, obviously both of these are not true refection of sentiment, for that we need to talk to 1000 random ppl on the street
 
zac said:
could it be that only those who have missed the boat hang out here?
Click to expand...

Why are you here?

zac said:
could it be that they are too busy counting their cash or shopping from their equity withdrawls?
Click to expand...

Are you implying that all bulls are property "owners"/mewers?

maybe we have only those ppl here who cant afford to buy and waiting for a crash so that they can buy?
Click to expand...

Again why are you here?


I think it is just that you cannot give a reasoned argument for continued HPI or even a leveling off?

Do you accept the challange?
 
Duplex said:
That might be it Zac. :confused: But its more likely that they cant construct a credible argument?
Click to expand...

i have seen bullish arguments from the likes of banks, EAs, those who are related to property business etc etc, problem is judging whos argument is "credible" (whether bank's or evening hearld's journalist's/contributors on this board) is skewed by our own opinion, dont u think?
 
StoppedClock said:
Why are you here?



Are you implying that all bulls are property "owners"/mewers?



Again why are you here?


I think it is just that you cannot give a reasoned argument for continued HPI or even a leveling off?

Do you accept the challange?
Click to expand...

looks like i touched some nerves here, :) i dont care why you are here and neither should you about me,
dont think i said im bullish on irish residential property, dont own one either, do own european and asia pac commercial propery funds tho and wont take too long to quit them either if they break their trends
 
Remind me again which Banks only weeks ago were forecasting Property Price Growth for the remainder of 2006 and 2007. I'd be happy to write any Derivative on their views for them. Phone number with the Moderator should they wish to seek me out.
 
zac said:
i have seen bullish arguments from the likes of banks, EAs, those who are related to property business etc etc, problem is judging whos argument is "credible" (whether bank's or evening hearld's journalist's/contributors on this board) is skewed by our own opinion, dont u think?
Click to expand...

Lets say Zac that when it comes to property that I am as well qualified to discuss property as anyone in these banks. And better qualified than Eddie Hobbs;)
 
Rates slowing house price growth

Breaking news www.rte.ie


House Price growth shows for the third month in a row (despite the opening of the 'selling season'?) to 1%. Attributed to Increasing interest rates.
 
Duplex said:
Why don't the bulls come on here and debate? Or maybe the Indo or Times would accept an article from members of this board who are in agreement that a property bubble exists in Ireland?
Click to expand...

Maybe you should write one and submit it? I think an alternative viewpoint is always welcome but most bearish articles annoy even neutral people... heres a start

A short article with a title like

Rent vs Buy, Whats the best option in 2006?

So you are ____ earning ____ and are confused with the property market...
A typical X bedroom house in XXX costs, YYY, can be rented for approximately ZZZ. or mortgaged with a 30 year mortgage for .... Is it better to buy or rent. Note that the buying assumption is the 'best case' scenario, a couple with a steady income expecting > inflation salary increases and good job propsects.
Whats the best thing to do? Rent is dead money and you'll never see it again, but Houses prices are sky high. 30 years is a long time to be paying back a mortgage, and inflation aint what it used to be. The 50k given to Bertie back in the early 90's is still a lot of money when compared against nearly everything but house prices.

Risk

Rent is dead money. You are guaranteed never to see it again. So after 5 years you have lost xxxx, assuming rent increases of X%. Assuming you were able to finance the mortgage, and lived the same lifestyle, you would now have zzz sitting in your Rabo bank account...
By Buying, After 5 years, you will have paid back xxxx, and taken zzzz off the mortgage. Assuming interest rates remain unchanged. Hopefully, if prices increase by X% per year, you will have a paper profit of ....

Betting your future on the ECB

But over 5 years rates WILL change. They can go up or down. there has been increases of 1.25% since the historic lows of 2004. The smart (long term financial rate) money is that they will be at xxx which means the bank will charge you 5%

Now, assume the predicted interest rates rises of for 2007 occur, then stabalize for a 2 years and drop 1%. Thats Then do the calculations..

If you rent, its easy you'll still have lost xxxx paying rent, and if you kept the same lifestyle as the guy paying the mortgage, you'll have xxxx in your Rabobank... If you werent able to save the mortgage repayments every month, you will have less, but you wont have lost anything
If you bought, you'll have paid off .... What will the asset be worth?

I think it would show the risk is with the buyers...

So whats the decision

Rent for a year, see what happens... After all, when prices get to 500k, a 20k increase in prices increase in a year wont kill you. But a 1% increase in rates will, its another 5k to be found in that year....



http://www.askaboutmoney.com/showpost.php?p=283486&postcount=4625 is the best post on the thread and illustrates how people are betting their financial future on the ESB rate which is at historic lows and the bet is they stay there...

I think rather than emotional talk of a 'bubble' or crash, the facts speak for themselves...
Click to expand...
 
fatmanknows said:
Remind me again which Banks only weeks ago were forecasting Property Price Growth for the remainder of 2006 and 2007. I'd be happy to write any Derivative on their views for them. Phone number with the Moderator should they wish to seek me out.
Click to expand...

BOI saying 3% next yr and NIB 7, last i read, think we can do with irish housing derivatives, why dont you float them on CME instead, US housing already there, dont think banks gonna take your challenge? nice thought though ;)
 
zac said:
could it be that only those who have missed the boat hang out here?
could it be that they are too busy counting their cash or shopping from their equity withdrawls?
maybe we have only those ppl here who cant afford to buy and waiting for a crash so that they can buy?
Click to expand...

zac said:
looks like i touched some nerves here, :) i dont care why you are here and neither should you about me,
dont think i said im bullish on irish residential property, dont own one either, do own european and asia pac commercial propery funds tho and wont take too long to quit them either if they break their trends
Click to expand...

I think I misunderstood your original post, it appears you have one of those strange sense of humours that no-one else really gets.
 
Duplex said:
Lets say Zac that when it comes to property that I am as well qualified to discuss property as anyone in these banks. And better qualified than Eddie Hobbs;)
Click to expand...

good stuff, dint think we had many well qualified ppl here :)
you can share your qualification if you feel like, always good to listen to well qualified ppl.
 
MadPad said:
As theres no bulls on the thread, i think its only fair to draw your attention to...

Eddie Hobbs agrees, saying: "Poor auction results do not mean Armageddon, and anyone who thinks so demonstrates a complete lack of understanding of what a crash actually means. Our economy is ....

...
Click to expand...

Attack the argument not the person Eddie....
 
whizzbang said:
Duplex said:
letter to the editor anyone?
Click to expand...

I love the way the article just ends...

"Eddie Hobbs agrees, saying: "Poor auction results do not mean Armageddon, and anyone who thinks so demonstrates a complete lack of understanding of what a crash actually means. Our economy is "

Its almost as if he was going to say something that the powers that be don't like and they pulled the plug...

So this weeks competition to win a free ticket to the HOK foreign property expo choose one of the following:

Eddid Hobbs was recently misquoted in the Indo saying:

Our economy is :

a) based on solid fundamentals
b) floundering
c) manipulated by VI to line their own pockets
Click to expand...
 
MadPad said:
Duplex said:
Maybe you should write one and submit it? I think an alternative viewpoint is always welcome but most bearish articles annoy even neutral people... heres a start

A short article with a title like

Rent vs Buy, Whats the best option in 2006?

So you are ____ earning ____ and are confused with the property market...
A typical X bedroom house in XXX costs, YYY, can be rented for approximately ZZZ. or mortgaged with a 30 year mortgage for .... Is it better to buy or rent. Note that the buying assumption is the 'best case' scenario, a couple with a steady income expecting > inflation salary increases and good job propsects.
Whats the best thing to do? Rent is dead money and you'll never see it again, but Houses prices are sky high. 30 years is a long time to be paying back a mortgage, and inflation aint what it used to be. The 50k given to Bertie back in the early 90's is still a lot of money when compared against nearly everything but house prices.

Risk

Rent is dead money. You are guaranteed never to see it again. So after 5 years you have lost xxxx, assuming rent increases of X%. Assuming you were able to finance the mortgage, and lived the same lifestyle, you would now have zzz sitting in your Rabo bank account...
By Buying, After 5 years, you will have paid back xxxx, and taken zzzz off the mortgage. Assuming interest rates remain unchanged. Hopefully, if prices increase by X% per year, you will have a paper profit of ....

Betting your future on the ECB

But over 5 years rates WILL change. They can go up or down. there has been increases of 1.25% since the historic lows of 2004. The smart (long term financial rate) money is that they will be at xxx which means the bank will charge you 5%

Now, assume the predicted interest rates rises of for 2007 occur, then stabalize for a 2 years and drop 1%. Thats Then do the calculations..

If you rent, its easy you'll still have lost xxxx paying rent, and if you kept the same lifestyle as the guy paying the mortgage, you'll have xxxx in your Rabobank... If you werent able to save the mortgage repayments every month, you will have less, but you wont have lost anything
If you bought, you'll have paid off .... What will the asset be worth?

I think it would show the risk is with the buyers...

So whats the decision

Rent for a year, see what happens... After all, when prices get to 500k, a 20k increase in prices increase in a year wont kill you. But a 1% increase in rates will, its another 5k to be found in that year....



http://www.askaboutmoney.com/showpost.php?p=283486&postcount=4625 is the best post on the thread and illustrates how people are betting their financial future on the ESB rate which is at historic lows and the bet is they stay there...

I think rather than emotional talk of a 'bubble' or crash, the facts speak for themselves...
Click to expand...


Would you agree that Mortgage interest is dead money? as you are never going to see it again?

Also you have much more control over the rent you pay rather than the mortgage interest you pay.
Click to expand...
 
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