- Status
Definately entering the "sticky on the way down" phase in my opinion.
My forecast -
A) Dropping marginally until late November early Decemeber - by then reliable figures should start appearing for sales around now and the first true signs of a serious slowdown
B) A slightly sharper fall until March and April when we get the first "dead cat bounce" when those waiting for a fall dive in because they just missed out last spring and think its 2001 all over again, they HAVE to get in now that they can. Much celebration by home owners and economists saying we told you so, the soft landings were just what we predicted. Chamagne and cufflinks..
C) Those who just missed out last spring all now have places, others with a longer term view recognise it for what it is and wait - hard times for home owners and sellers and the economy.
D) 2010+ ??? Recovery starts but is painfully slow as memories of the Great Property Bust of 2007 are still fresh in Joe and Jane Publics minds.
B
blindjustice
Guest
http://www.askaboutmoney.com/showthread.php?t=36468
http://www.askaboutmoney.com/showthread.php?t=36581
hmmmmmmmmmnnnnn!!!
I really dont think a crash will be a cause for celebration
there gonna be alot of unhappiness if it falls right through
http://www.askaboutmoney.com/showthread.php?t=36581
hmmmmmmmmmnnnnn!!!
I really dont think a crash will be a cause for celebration
there gonna be alot of unhappiness if it falls right through
So it seems that the penny is finally dropping for many vendors. It will be interesting to see if they bite the bullet and accept bids that are marginally lower or try and ride it out in the hope of prices rising again. The next 2 months are going to be very interesting to observe.
By the same token, the insane property value inflation shouldn't have been a cause for celebration either because it is highly unlikely that it could continue. But if you said that to any interested parties, they did in fact pooh pooh you for it.
Economically, a correction is pretty much necessary - the future economic health of the country probably depends on it this stage because we cannot continue borrowing money to the extent that we are presently doing. We need to stop mortgaging future earnings for current operating costs (ie we need to stop remortgaging to pay for cars and holidays). I won't celebrate to see people suffer, but I cannot abdicate them of responsibility for bringing themselves to that point either. The crash was foreseeable, has been foreseeable for years. Claiming it won't happen because it hasn't happened yet is ostrich mentality and it's what we've had for the past three or four years. The unhappiness caused by a crash has to be seen in the context of people making their own decisions. The only proviso I have is that I'm not entirely sure that the pre-crash period of feeling wealthy was matched by a corresponding rise in happiness either.
Economically, a correction is pretty much necessary - the future economic health of the country probably depends on it this stage because we cannot continue borrowing money to the extent that we are presently doing. We need to stop mortgaging future earnings for current operating costs (ie we need to stop remortgaging to pay for cars and holidays). I won't celebrate to see people suffer, but I cannot abdicate them of responsibility for bringing themselves to that point either. The crash was foreseeable, has been foreseeable for years. Claiming it won't happen because it hasn't happened yet is ostrich mentality and it's what we've had for the past three or four years. The unhappiness caused by a crash has to be seen in the context of people making their own decisions. The only proviso I have is that I'm not entirely sure that the pre-crash period of feeling wealthy was matched by a corresponding rise in happiness either.
Very well said. Couldn't agree more. The people now having panic attacks because property prices are heading south will just have to accept that they are directly responsible for the insane proptery bubble we all found ourselves in! Pressure or no pressure, they bought at ridiculously inflated prices until the whole thing spiraled out of control.
A correction is inevitable, it will hurt for a while but in the end sanity will prevail. Doubt lessons will be learned, but there you go.
Austin Hughes from IIB was on Newstalk this morning trying to inject calm into the weakening property market. He was tut-tutting about the "sensationalist" stories identifying a weaker market in the press over the past week or so, mentioned the Tribune in particular. He said that there were some positive property stories but they were not given enough attention by the media. As usual he was talking up the market saying how prices were going to keep rising in the face of more interest rate hikes.
It was a real love-in with the presenter who even suggested that talk of lower prices will cause people to jump in immediately creating more price rises???? Austin agreed!
It was a real love-in with the presenter who even suggested that talk of lower prices will cause people to jump in immediately creating more price rises???? Austin agreed!
Yes it was an incredible interview, it was very funny to hear him blame some unrealistic expectations of sellers at the moment. I have never heard him so worried in an interview. I would have thought Newstalk would have had someone like Jill Kerby on to provide some counterbalance. He also stated that people who have been sitting on the sidelines for a while might now enter the market which would further bolster it....
Yes it was an incredible interview, it was very funny to hear him blame some unrealistic expectations of sellers at the moment. I have never heard him so worried in an interview. I would have thought Newstalk would have had someone like Jill Kerby on to provide some counterbalance. He also stated that people who have been sitting on the sidelines for a while might now enter the market which would further bolster it....
They know that if potential buyers realise that prices might not go up, they may hold off making a purchase. This would definitely cause the market to collapse so they have to inject talk of soft landings and prices rising at a "sustainable" pace to keep it propped up in some way. The thing is - these people have been talking up the market for years so the effect of continued interviews like this will be neutral. Talk of a weaker market in the press IS new and that will definitely have an effect on sentiment.
S
SHARP
Guest
Excellent post and well said!
Absolutely - you can see from this piece on rte.ie today that first time buyers are leading the growth in re-mortgaging!
http://www.rte.ie/business/2006/0918/mortgage.html
"Research by IFG Mortgages shows that more people than ever are re-mortgaging. According to the internal survey by IFG, first time home owners are leading the growth in the sector.
The research also showed that the size of the average re-mortgage amount has gone up by 38% in the last 12 months"
I happened to be flicking through the 1992 Guinness book of records over the weekend and in 1992 somewhere in Tokyo had the worlds most expensive real estate prices. I wouldn't be suprised if the price in the same place today is less than it was in 1992. Nor would I be suprised if somebody told me that Dublin has the worlds highest real estate prices in 2006........
New Build Price Drop
These apartments in Donnybrook were launched last week and the price has been dropped already. 1 bed units were launched at €640,000 and they have been reduced to €630,000. 2 beds units were launched at €880,000, now reduced to €860,000.
Launch article:
http://www.unison.ie/irish_independent/stories.php3?ca=303&si=1685101&issue_id=14621
1 Bed, reduced from €640k to €630k
[broken link removed]=
2 Bed, reduced from €880k to €860k
[broken link removed]=
These apartments in Donnybrook were launched last week and the price has been dropped already. 1 bed units were launched at €640,000 and they have been reduced to €630,000. 2 beds units were launched at €880,000, now reduced to €860,000.
Launch article:
http://www.unison.ie/irish_independent/stories.php3?ca=303&si=1685101&issue_id=14621
1 Bed, reduced from €640k to €630k
[broken link removed]=
2 Bed, reduced from €880k to €860k
[broken link removed]=
...could they not have been pricing errors? Did you contact the EA & ask why as a matter of interest?
S
SHARP
Guest
This was on Today FM news aswell along with the comment that they were re-mortgaging within the first year to re-furnish the house and buy cars.
I believe I mentioned this earlier in the thread and that led to others questioning it. Do they believe it now?
We are built up for a large fall......
S
SHARP
Guest
Think of this article from the UK and then think of the same couple who have bought a 350k house in Ireland:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2-2355623,00.html
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2-2355623,00.html
fatmanknows
Registered User
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Your probably right, they are pricing errors.............by the developer, even with the new prices they still appear to contain pricing errors. It may take the middle of 2007 before the price errors are corrected.
Looks like the mortgage broker screwed them over more big time.....their quote "“Looking back, there was no reason why the broker did not recommend a mortgage with a normal high street bank as we had no major debts.
“It also became clear, when we were in difficulty, that the mortgage broker had no proper record of our earnings. Unexplained charges kept appearing. I wish we had never bought it in the first place.”"
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