Now John Hurley, governor of the Central Bank, warns the economy has become over dependent on the construction sector and its productivity performance has deteriorated - fairly encapsulates some realistic concerns expressed on this thread (quoted in an article in today's "Irish Times").......but as a recent contribution highlighted there are still hundreds of new triumphant 'Sold' lollipops appearing every week!
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Or perhaps the SSIA scheme?
Or to bogus social welfare claimants?
Contrast this statement with what NCB stockbrokers said last week.
bearishbull
Registered User
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Any signs of the autumn selling season being busy? Its now Sept 16th, have'nt heard much to indicate a frenzied buying season like in spring last. Anyone here at viewings today?
We've been at some viewings, much quieter than the Spring. Houses are still selling but definitely not at the inflated prices from earlier in the year. Sellers seem to have lowered their expectations, making deals possible.
This house for example (2nd in the list) started with an AMV of €3,000,000
and was subsequently reduced to €2,750,000 even before the auction, coming up on 26th Sep
[broken link removed]=
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wolfie
Guest
Mate of mine bought 4 bed semi in Athlone 4 yrs ago for 110k Is selling it for 270k and banking the difference. He is going to rent a large new detached home in new estate in Athlone for 850 per month.
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thewatcher
Guest
The tax evading one's yes,cheques should only be made payable to the landlord and checks should be in place to make sure that the properties status is that of an investment property and that all the revelant taxes have/are being paid.To think that taxpayers money is going to some landlord who aren't even paying taxes/stamp duty themselves is sickening and a disgrace in my book.
What has that got to do with anything ?A silly point really.
Them aswell,it seems to me that once someone actually secures a claim their status is rarely if ever checked after that,bar unemployment benefit.
I worked at an estage agent's office in the States years ago and it was commonly accepted by the agents that the market cycle for property starts to heat up in Spring and slows down in the Fall, regardless of the general trend of the market. Don't know if it applies over here, but just a thought.
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blindjustice
Guest
an earlier post said that in the event of a crash civil servants would be ok
I wanted to know if there was any truth in what I heard about benchmarking being able to go down as well as up!!
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miju
Guest
sept is the month much trumpeted by the bulls as the return to roaring form for the property market , though that prediction seems to not be materialising thus far
Excellent FinFacts article on the Irish Banking sector relating to the property market:
http://www.finfacts.com/irelandbusinessnews/publish/article_10007281.shtml
"On Monday, analyst Jonathan Pierce at Credit Suisse started new coverage of Irish banks, saying earnings forecasts don't reflect the impact of rising rates. "Loan growth could halve and impairment charges double by 08," he says. "Mortgage lending could fall to 15% per annum by 08 driven by reduced consumer demand and a slowdown in house price inflation."
"In Ireland, the ratio of private credit to GDP has reached 190%, the world's highest. "
http://www.finfacts.com/irelandbusinessnews/publish/article_10007281.shtml
"On Monday, analyst Jonathan Pierce at Credit Suisse started new coverage of Irish banks, saying earnings forecasts don't reflect the impact of rising rates. "Loan growth could halve and impairment charges double by 08," he says. "Mortgage lending could fall to 15% per annum by 08 driven by reduced consumer demand and a slowdown in house price inflation."
"In Ireland, the ratio of private credit to GDP has reached 190%, the world's highest. "
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thewatcher
Guest
Excellent FinFacts article on the Irish Banking sector relating to the property market:
http://www.finfacts.com/irelandbusinessnews/publish/article_10007281.shtml
"On Monday, analyst Jonathan Pierce at Credit Suisse started new coverage of Irish banks, saying earnings forecasts don't reflect the impact of rising rates. "Loan growth could halve and impairment charges double by 08," he says. "Mortgage lending could fall to 15% per annum by 08 driven by reduced consumer demand and a slowdown in house price inflation."
"In Ireland, the ratio of private credit to GDP has reached 190%, the world's highest. "
Just so i can sleep soundly tonight,i take it Northern Rocks irish arm is part of the UK market and has little to do with the irish banking system ?
From Today's Sunday Times:
Credit Suisse: Irish home loan growth to halve
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/newspaper/0,,2769-2361085,00.html
"The broker said the likely impact would be two-fold: “First, an increase in unemployment could intensify a consumer slowdown; second, credit demand in the construction industry — a key driver or domestic credit growth — would fall.”
Credit Suisse: Irish home loan growth to halve
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/newspaper/0,,2769-2361085,00.html
"The broker said the likely impact would be two-fold: “First, an increase in unemployment could intensify a consumer slowdown; second, credit demand in the construction industry — a key driver or domestic credit growth — would fall.”
BREAKING NEWS....also reported on radio news today:
House prices to level off as interest rates on the rise
http://www.unison.ie/breakingnews/index.php3?ca=35&si=98526
"Sellers having been warned to adjust their expectations, as economists predict that the level of price inflation seen earlier in the year will not be matched this autumn.
The number of houses on sale in estate agents around Dublin is up 25 percent from last September.
These houses, combined with a number of properties which were withdrawn at auction over the summer have resulted in an over-supply of second hand homes in the capital."
House prices to level off as interest rates on the rise
http://www.unison.ie/breakingnews/index.php3?ca=35&si=98526
"Sellers having been warned to adjust their expectations, as economists predict that the level of price inflation seen earlier in the year will not be matched this autumn.
The number of houses on sale in estate agents around Dublin is up 25 percent from last September.
These houses, combined with a number of properties which were withdrawn at auction over the summer have resulted in an over-supply of second hand homes in the capital."
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minky
Guest
The last sentence is the most revealing, Looks like the vested interests are trying to talk down the panic with the miraculous soft landing scenario.
Would they please explain how this will happen? I'll believe it when I see it
There is of course an intellectual dishonesty inherent in the soft landing scenario. We are supposed to believe that the market will tick along at supply demand equilibrium, the economic equivalent of an elephant balancing on the head of a pin. We are supposed to swallow hook line and sinker the fabrication that a previously speculative market will transform into one driven by fundamentals; when the fundamentals don't support current valuations. (2-3% net yields, stagnant rental inflation, tens of thousands of empty properties). We are expected to be gullible and ignorant enough to ignore the countless lessons of history which show that all speculative markets crash. We are considered so moronic that we will ignore the evidence that prices are falling in other nations where the run up in prices has been far less than in Ireland. We are the most indebted nation on Earth, we rely heavily on selling our own land to ourselves to sustain our economy, we are at a turning point in this cycle of global economic growth, we have lost competitiveness, manufacturing jobs and the run of ourselves entirely. Given these facts a hard landing might be the best case scenario.
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thewatcher
Guest
When you have people as walk2dewater said with the mentality of trying to "beat the rates" ie. pay the highest price possible for an asset just before interest rates increase,then i think it's safe to assume that there's plenty of gullible and ignorant people out there !.
Would they please explain how this will happen? I'll believe it when I see it
It's a delaying tactic, I think. Buyers appear to be in shorter supply than usual, so the few that are around, to get them to turn over money, you need to convince them that in fact, they won't do better than they are doing now if they wait. House prices tracking inflation (apparent soft landing) means that buying now is better than buying in three months time.
The problem is...the asking prices in some cases seem to be falling and in a lot of cases appear to have crashed into a brick wall. Certainly in the areas where I would be looking, there is some indication that prices rises are off the table and price maintenance is now where it's at.
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