Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

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CelloPoint said:
Refute that. When did I move the goalposts on my predictions?
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Well mainly I think it was Phoenix_n, who agreed with your prediction but then claimed this crash would happen in December while taking months to actually materialise.

CelloPoint said:
Until I see a photograph of a substantial amount of 'for sale' signs outside some generic apartment complex/housing estate, I will hold off on saying stuff like 'the crash has begun'.
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CelloPoint said:
Yes, I've nailed my colours to the mast. Please don't misquote me by saying I predict a 'December crash'
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I apologise if the quotes are taken out of context (I don't think they are though) but to see such serious drops by the end of the year, people selling now would need to be accepting substantially reduced offers. Thus far, this isn't happening.
 
walk2dewater said:
Winter 2007 – ECB joins the Feb in pausing rates citing slowdown in France and Germany and 1.35 exchange to the US$. Bullish sentiment roars back
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Not a chance IMO - it would take a massive cut in interest rates to get it moving again. This market is a like walking dead man

What saved it in 2002 was the ECB move to VERY low rates and government reversing the Bacon measures. There is nothing to save it next January.

This thread is going in circles - would be great to lock it until Sep 17th - one month from now
 
 

So having indentified such an opportunity would you not be willing to commit to the market.
 

Hear what you say WTTW and very much like your posting style. However I strongly think otherwise about whether there's any more breadth left in the market. The market is exhausted and IMO has already had it's final run - peaked late April with a few of the big red bricks achieving unintelligble amounts. We'll have two more rate rises before year end and more in the 1st quarter of new year. (For those on IO or long term martgages a further 1% increase could amount to a staggering increase of 25% on their current heavy monthly commitment.) The market is 'punched out' and will not sustain itself with the coming rate rises and shed loads of supply yet to come on stream.
 
ninsaga said:
...so how does that translate into what MOST people are doing?
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Well - when you're active in the market it is easy to spot.

- Many properties with no bids or bids way below asking
- Buyers pulling out of deals
- Falling asking prices
- EA's calling me wondering if I would consider making a bid below the asking price
- Going to viewings, nobody else there!
- So many properties coming on that suit us that we can't view them all

The only properties I've seen go sale agreed in the past few weeks have been below or at asking price. Vendors usually expect to achieve above asking.
 

You may be right regarding the "big red bricks". I know nothing about the market for them. However I think the market does indeed have another 9 months or so to run at the bottom end. There are still enough desperate FTBs and "canny investors" willing to spend €350k - €500k for their "dream starter home" or simply not to "miss out", or for that "sensible investment". This will keep the show on the road for a bit longer - though it will be a more nervous show.
 
A trend worth watching is the development of new Residential Mortgage Backed Securities (RMBS) markets in emerging economies. Russia, India, China, Korea, Egypt etc. are at the early stages of developing RMBS's possibly providing competition for funds in established markets in Europe and the US.

This report is on the RMBS in Saudi.

http://www.menafn.com/qn_news_story_s.asp?StoryId=1093120725
 
whathome said:
PTSB/ESRI comment from the Independent in February:
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I know I've asked about this one before but if the above is indeed true
how come the last PTSB/ESRI reported the average house price at about
roughly €300k whereas the recent BoI report which reported the average
house price at about roughly €400k.

The BoI report was also based on Dept of the Environment figures. If both
reports are based on Dept of the Environment figures how come they
came to figures which are so far apart for average house price -

€300k v €400k ?
 

Perhaps you could clarify your prediction. These price drops by December. Are you talking about a percentage drop from the seller's expected sale price, a percentage drop from the current market value, or an annualised loss?

I still fail to see how your prediction doesn't constitute a crash.


Someone accepting slightly below the asking price means nothing. I bought two years ago during the gold rush for slightly below the asking price. The two scariest things about property as an investment IMO, are the illiquidity of the market (so you cannot limit your loss the way can with investments in a liquid market) and the requirement for leverage. If we see a massive correction by Christmas it means the market is more liquid than I thought. There were fundamentals underpinning the boom in prices but these were vastly overshot, manifesting into the bubble we now see. This happens quite often in markets but is not as much of a problem if the market can correct.

I am bullish on the long term prospects of gold. The fact that the price has crashed relative to its May peak hasn't changed that for me. My fear for the property market would be that the 'stickyness' of prices would mean the correction would occur in real rather than nominal terms. This effectively leaves prices static in nominal terms with a Mexican stand-off between buyers and sellers. For someone wishing to trade-up (as I would be) this is a horrible situation, leaving you trapped in a home that is no longer suitable for your needs.

Hence my decision to sell now.
 

They're both based on mortgages but the BOI report is based on a mix of DOE & PTSB figures whereas the PTSB/ESRI report is based on their own data. They also have differing views on what the definition of an average house price is.
 
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