Bitcoin in a hyperbolic bubble

[Duke of Marmalade]

@WolfeTone Yes I see dangers, but I will never be convinced that bitcoin or any other crypto without intrinsic value is the solution.

On a separate point I see that bitcoin's current woes are being laid almost entirely at Muskie's doing. I did caution against the incredible sensitivity this (once) trillion dollar "asset" has to the whims of one man, and a maverick at that. Hope you resisted the urge to dive in at $60k.

 

[tecate]

us note I do not find this argument that you can pay your taxes with fiat very convincing of its intrinsic value. To me fiat has, let's not call it intrinsic value, but society backing.

Good - because the former isn't an example of intrinsic value and the latter seems to be something you just thought up.

@WolfeTone Yes I see dangers, but I will never be convinced that bitcoin or any other crypto without intrinsic value is the solution.

I'd be inclined to think that you'd need to keep more of an open mind on the subject, Duke. As distasteful as the notion is to you, don't you think that potentially you would have to grudgingly accept bitcoin is the real deal lets say if it hits a market cap of $2 trillion? If not $2 trillion, what's your number?

On a separate point I see that bitcoin's current woes are being laid almost entirely at Muskie's doing. I did caution against the incredible sensitivity this (once) trillion dollar "asset" has to the whims of one man, and a maverick at that. Hope you resisted the urge to dive in at $60k.

Muskies twitter antics are a bit of a nuisance. However, if you dig a bit deeper you'll find that the belief in more credible circles is that the market was well overdue a proper pullback. Any of the previous pullbacks had been bought up in double quick time.
Otherwise, I agreed with you that a Musk-ism would have an effect on the market BUT only where the Johnny Come Lately's were concerned. Those that have gone the distance in this space didn't sell off on the back of Muskie's mood swing.

That is in the form of debt. For people to pay off their debts they must earn an economic living i.e. contribute goods and services to society. So fiat is in this sense an IOU between members of society which will be settled in goods and services.

Encouraging debt slavery is part of the economic system we're running with for sure. I don't see that in anyway as positive for society or the environment. The notion is we have to keep chasing this elusive growth to keep the musical chairs going - and that means encouraging irresponsible behaviour re. money management. It has the further knock on effect of encouraging people to be the ultimate consumers buying all manner of horrendous crap. This is the source of the environmental issue - ironic given the current tar and feathering bitcoin is (wrongly) getting on the subject.

But there is one debt which is dodgy, I admit. It is the debt owed by the government. The ability of the government to honour its debt in goods and services stems from its ability to raise revenues from the economy.

Yeah, that one's not happening. Governments have no notion of paying their debts as we've gone past the point of no return. The system is broken.

 

[WolfeTone]

lest you forget the last 150 years aided by fiat money and fractional reserve banking (AND lots of other things of course) has seen the greatest progress in aggregate of human living conditions witnessed since records began.

True, the "lots of other things" being, increased access to education and research and development in science & technology.

But all of that could happen anyway without a fiat system. The fiat system has certainly contributed to a faster rate of progress. Certainly in the last 50yrs. There is no doubt that lots of good has come out of it. But there is no doubt the levels of consumption are unsustainable without solutions to clean energy, pollution, declining biodiversity.

Did anything happen 50yrs ago that could propel this rapid expansion in aggregate human living conditions? Would the reserve currency of the world leaving the gold standard have anything to do with it?

The notion is we have to keep chasing this elusive growth to keep the musical chairs going - and that means encouraging irresponsible behaviour re. money management. It has the further knock on effect of encouraging people to be the ultimate consumers buying all manner of horrendous crap.

I'm inclined to agree with this. Not so much that people buy horrendous crap, each to their own I say.
Rather, we consume horrendous crap at an unsustainable rate. Why repair anything when its cheaper to buy new? Why bother save when one new loan can just pay off another loan.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

Good - because the former isn't an example of intrinsic value and the latter seems to be something you just thought up.

No, quite a long standing theme of mine. Check your files.

I'd be inclined to think that you'd need to keep more of an open mind on the subject, Duke. As distasteful as the notion is to you, don't you think that potentially you would have to grudgingly accept bitcoin is the real deal lets say if it hits a market cap of $2 trillion? If not $2 trillion, what's your number?

When will Stiglitz, Shiller, Krugman, Merton and of course Professor Roubini change their minds?

Muskies twitter antics are a bit of a nuisance. However, if you dig a bit deeper you'll find that the belief in more credible circles is that the market was well overdue a proper pullback. Any of the previous pullbacks had been bought up in double quick time.

I would agree that Wolfie probably does not qualify as a more credible circle but he was wild bullish at $60k.

Otherwise, I agreed with you that a Musk-ism would have an effect on the market BUT only where the Johnny Come Lately's were concerned. Those that have gone the distance in this space didn't sell off on the back of Muskie's mood swing.

Rare moment of agreement.

Encouraging debt slavery is part of the economic system we're running with for sure. I don't see that in anyway as positive for society or the environment. The notion is we have to keep chasing this elusive growth to keep the musical chairs going - and that means encouraging irresponsible behaviour re. money management. It has the further knock on effect of encouraging people to be the ultimate consumers buying all manner of horrendous crap. This is the source of the environmental issue.

That is certainly the gospel according to the cult.

- ironic given the current tar and feathering bitcoin is (wrongly) getting on the subject.

I'm in the Hands Off Bitcoin brigade on this one.

Yeah, that one's not happening. Governments have no notion of paying their debts as we've gone past the point of no return. The system is broken.

Dream on!

 

[tecate]

No, quite a long standing theme of mine. Check your files.

I see it now - it's filed under unicorns and fluffy rabbits.

When will Stiglitz, Shiller, Krugman, Merton and of course Professor Roubini change their minds?

That's like a last days of Berlin/Downfall meme then - as the nutty professor has backed himself into a corner and tied himself up in knots. Years later fax machine guy said that he was only joking about the fax machine! Still, maybe Nouriel will be able to dream up something or other.

I would agree that Wolfie probably does not qualify as a more credible circle but he was wild bullish at $60k.

Trying to whip up some discontent, Dukey? Sorry but that won't work. Wolfie didn't get out this weekend on the basis of Elon's mood swing. And that's what I was addressing - nothing else.

That is certainly the gospel according to the cult.

And perhaps you don't see it but spilling out this sort of bile demonstrates that you are part of what you're accusing others of being - the 'in god we trust' cult, right?

Dream on!

You mean you really believe that the US (and others) are in a position to pay down their debt? You must be kidding, Dukey. Of course this is being discussed in crypto circles - but it's being discussed beyond crypto circles also. Post #676 - go and listen to Stanley Druckenmiller. The likes of Ray Dalio - who heads up the World's largest hedge fund has also been shouting from the rooftops to anyone prepared to listen over the course of the past year that the system is broken.

 

[letitroll]

Did anything happen 50yrs ago that could propel this rapid expansion in aggregate human living conditions? Would the reserve currency of the world leaving the gold standard have anything to do with it?

I kind of don't care how it happened @WolfeTone - the propulsion of billions people out of abject poverty justifies (almost) any end - or as the great pragmatist of the 20th century Deng Xiaoping said - "it doesn't matter whether a cat is black or white, if it catches mice it is a good cat". That single idea propelled a billion plus people out of subsistence farming starvation in China when a small bit of capitalism was sprinkled into the socialist soup.

You should be aware @WolfeTone you seem to sit in the long storied history of monetary Cassandra's - those who see impending doom & collapse in the monetary system both when it was gold backed and when it was not. Some portion of Bitcoiners, are Goldbugs for the modern age......everything old is new again! - it is a powerful narrative that has seduced many - the track record of those in that particular camp over the past 150 years is horrendous but thats not to say 'they' might not be right one day.....yes we've had financial crisis, booms, busts, depression but the robustness of the 'system' and its ability to adapt and reform has been impressive and most importantly the cat has caught mice!

 

[WolfeTone]

I would agree that Wolfie probably does not qualify as a more credible circle but he was wild bullish at $60k.

Certainly was. But my train of thought at the time was in discussion with yourself and I was working on the basis of the dawning of your brave new world where everyones money would diminish by 2% pa with little incentive to ever hold on to it.
It gave me pause for thought for sure.
Then I see JB is pumping $trillions into capital infrastructure in US (rather than just bank balance sheets) and I'm thinking this may be a bit of a game-changer. So I am resisting any bitcoin for the moment. Inflation is rearing its head. See how we go. If interest rates rise, I predict a bearish market for bitcoin for a period. I will buy into then. Depending how interest rates are managed by CB's (I'm not confident that anything but another financial calamity awaits) then I can take advantage of the inevitable upside to bitcoin.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

Trying to whip up some discontent, Dukey? Sorry but that won't work. Wolfie didn't get out this weekend on the basis of Elon's mood swing. And that's what I was addressing - nothing else.

You don't think that might be a bit of a porkie? Or am I misinterpreting the following quote:

However, if you dig a bit deeper you'll find that the belief in more credible circles is that the market was well overdue a proper pullback.

And perhaps you don't see it but spilling out this sort of bile

Chill out man. Your "bile" about my Big Banking Friends etc. just rolls over me.

You mean you really believe that the US (and others) are in a position to pay down their debt? You must be kidding, Dukey. Of course this is being discussed in crypto circles - but it's being discussed beyond crypto circles also. Post #676 - go and listen to Stanley Druckenmiller. The likes of Ray Dalio - who heads up the World's largest hedge fund has also been shouting from the rooftops to anyone prepared to listen over the course of the past year that the system is broken.

I have long learnt to accept that we live in a complex world and best to believe those who are the experts in their field rather than do any armchair theorising. And whilst you cite some very rare contrarian voices I look to the markets for what the experts really think. No sign at all that the markets see any risk of default in the debt of the leading nations and there expectations of inflation stealth are also very muted - I accept that with you living in Dodge that might not be very comforting.

 

[tecate]

You don't think that might be a bit of a porkie? Or am I misinterpreting the following quote:

I've no notion what you're running with here? It's very simple. I told you that if Elon wobbled the newcomers would wobble. He did and they did. You'd like to stoke up some sort of discord - when there isn't any. Wolfie had decided to take some profit a few weeks back. Where's the mystery and where's the porkie?

Chill out man. Your "bile" about my Big Banking Friends etc. just rolls over me.

Wishful thinking your Dukeness. It's not that it doesn't roll over me - it's that its a false narrative that we hear time and time again - when the zealot is your good self. You try and tar and feather and I'll respond accordingly - simple as that.

I have long learnt to accept that we live in a complex world and best to believe those who are the experts in their field rather than do any armchair theorising. And whilst you cite some very rare contrarian voices I look to the markets for what the experts really think. No sign at all that the markets see any risk of default in the debt of the leading nations and there expectations of inflation stealth are also very muted - I accept that with you living in Dodge that might not be very comforting.

I really can't help you with this - and I don't really care what you want to believe rather than what you're open to understanding. That's an issue for your good self. I mentioned two well placed individuals in the world of investing/finance - you couldn't get better placed. I also provided you with non-bitcoiner examples (because past performance tells us that you'll scream blue murder if they're crypto folk) - albeit both of them have shown an evolution in their thinking with regard to crypto and bitcoin.
As regards you saying you look to the markets - what markers are you looking for exactly? You think that if number go up that necessarily means that all is hunky dory? Could it mean the opposite?

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

I've no notion what you're running with here?

I think you do but this is one rabbit hole that I am escaping from.

 

[letitroll]

Finite supply.....pull the other one.........get yourself the newly minted.......F*ckElon Token...I'm not joking and either are the people who made it........instructions below for those interested in purchasing. I'm looking at you @WolfeTone .........with the correct network effects and believe in its store of value I can see a big big future for this one. To the moon, diamond hands etc. etc.

 

[WolfeTone]

I kind of don't care how it happened

There is a lot to pack in there, not sure how to respond.
But I pick up on the reference to golf bug.
I'm not particularly endeared to gold standard, my fault if I gave that impression.
I am endeared to a rules based system. I can appreciate the flexibility of the fiat based system, it allows the first world to change all the rules to borrow at record levels at zero interest rates to preserve our status as members of the wealthiest economies in the world.
What I'm not endeared to is the central planning of this monetary system which, like China, does not allow room for dissent.
I'm pro-european, pro-single currency, but the construct of this system is very much make it up as you go along with little more than "the greater good" as an underlying philosophy. When the rules change "for the greater good" invariably somebody will have their nose put out of joint, collateral damage I think the Americans call it.
I just hope it's not me, or my community, or my country.

Just in case, I have a little bit of bitcoin to preserve some of my wealth in the event that, for whatever reason, it is my nose that is put out of joint.

 

[WolfeTone]

I'm looking at you @WolfeTone

My goodness! Are you... are you, mocking me!

What happened to Mr.

you couldn't tackle any of my points on merit @WolfeTone.......but could only jokingly ridicule,

There was a reason I was somewhat dismissive of your initial G7, GDP proclaimations.
I was willing to give you benefit of the doubt but notably you haven't backed it up with any reasoning and descended to this malarkey.
There is another poster that shares your similar views and approach, I hope he is watching

 

[WolfeTone]

I would agree that Wolfie probably does not qualify as a more credible circle

Ha! ha! Duke. I take that in good jest.

Im here singing the praises of bitcoin because I keep losing money on it!

 

[letitroll]

It was a joke @WolfeTone

I’ve done my logical rebuttals already.

I’m tapping out - my laser eyes need to rest now - I’ll set an alarm for 12 months time and come back and visit……….that’s of course if the very system itself hasn’t collapsed because of money printing and we’re in some Mad Max type hell-scape where petrol is the only true currency left….I bet @Brendan Burgess will still be running this board off a generator in his back garden and I stand ready to go out in search parties to get him the petrol his generator so desperately needs

 

[WolfeTone]

It was a joke @WolfeTone

I know. Ditto my "Gamblers are people too!" quip.

The only reason I am not laughing now is out of fear that if I did, my ribs would crack.

 

[letitroll]

OK I’M BACK - I’m a little divil for this and saw this breaking news TODAY and couldn’t resist:

China has banned financial institutions and payment companies from providing services related to cryptocurrency transactions, and warned investors against speculative crypto trading.

Under the ban, such institutions, including banks and online payments channels, must not offer clients any service involving cryptocurrency, such as registration, trading, clearing and settlement, three industry bodies said in a joint statement on Tuesday.

https://www.reuters.com/technology/...es-barred-cryptocurrency-business-2021-05-18/

It has begun…nature is healing…....but maybe not….lets see I’ll admit I was wrong it wasn’t the G7 nations to strike first…..but just the second largest economy in the world and second largest by population………but i was close……you think timing of this is a coincidence @tecate @WolfeTone ? I dont believe in these types of coincidences, do you?

You reduce crime, when you reduce the proceeds FROM crime.

The expected value of any crime is as follows:
the nominal value of the ransom/crime MULTIPLIED by % chance you‘ll get caught = expected value of crime

 

[tecate]

OK I’M BACK - I’m a little divil for this and saw this breaking news TODAY and couldn’t resist:

China has banned financial institutions and payment companies from providing services related to cryptocurrency transactions, and warned investors against speculative crypto trading.

Under the ban, such institutions, including banks and online payments channels, must not offer clients any service involving cryptocurrency, such as registration, trading, clearing and settlement, three industry bodies said in a joint statement on Tuesday.

https://www.reuters.com/technology/...es-barred-cryptocurrency-business-2021-05-18/

It has begun…nature is healing…....but maybe not….lets see I’ll admit I was wrong it wasn’t the G7 nations to strike first…..but just the second largest economy in the world and second largest by population………but i was close……you think timing of this is a coincidence @tecate @WolfeTone ? I dont believe in these types of coincidences, do you?

You reduce crime, when you reduce the proceeds FROM crime.

The expected value of any crime is as follows:
the nominal value of the ransom/crime MULTIPLIED by % chance you‘ll get caught = expected value of crime

Here's your answer ->

https://twitter.com/x/status/1394661559033602049

As I mentioned, there are any amount of regulatory twists and turns over the coming years. However, in no way do I believe that ransomware will be the reason for any of them. There's chatter right now about the big banking lobby in the US trying to get some decisions made by the last administration (which would facilitate crypto custody for small banks) turned over.

Just to reiterate...the solution to ransomware is network security competence and investigation (you seem to think that the culprits can't be caught - I'm sure it's difficult but it's not impossible). Other than that, banning bitcoin isn't going to fix that problem - i'm confused as to how in the world you think that it would. If anything, it would be driving bitcoin further towards such use cases. The G7 is the G7 - it's not the 110 odd countries on the planet.

 

[tecate]

Finite supply.....pull the other one.........get yourself the newly minted.......F*ckElon Token...I'm not joking and either are the people who made it.

Sorry - but that's a comprehension fail. You can start a facebook, twitter or google clone tomorrow - how do you think you'll get on with that? It's the very same with bitcoin. To unseat it, the challenger will have to be 10x better. You brought up Drukenmiller on the basis that you felt that he suggested that the first project isn't always the one to succeed. Have a look at Business Insider article that covers in detail what he stated and you'll see that he too believes that bitcoin is going to be hard to unseat.

 

[tecate]

I think you do but this is one rabbit hole that I am escaping from.

The Duke trying to create something out of nothing again, it seems.