Bitcoin in a hyperbolic bubble

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From post #157 on 29th January:



It is evidence of adoption. I don't find that in contradiction to the fact that people shouldn't hang on his every word or trust him, or care about him much in general.

So if Tesla sells their Bitcoin stake, that is evidence that it is not being adopted?? You can't it both ways. You can't say 'Look, Tesla are buying all this bitcoin because they believe it is great and shows it is being adopted by the world' and then turn around if they sell saying 'Well who cares what they think'.......

Tesla don't really have a choice but to not sell. If they can't sell before the market spots what they are doing, the value of their holding will collapse. Lets see if Musk and his diamond hands buy more with the sell off. If he believed in it at this price previously, he should believe in it again......

And the idea that this link between one individual or company and bitcoin exists is completely ridiculous and while it is not the fault of bitcoin, it does show the complete nonsense that exists in that space at the moment. The fact that the market got so spooked by what he was doing or might be doing that it led to a 15% sell off shows that you might not care what he thinks, but there of plenty of other people that do........
 
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So if Tesla sells their Bitcoin stake, that is evidence that it is not being adopted??
Yes, if they leave the market for good.

However the fact that one of the biggest (rightly or wrongly) companies in the world used bitcoin as a store of value for a period of time will now always be true. A taboo was broken.
 
Or when someone like Elon Musk no longer has the power to cause > 15% price movements on the back of something he writes on Twitter......
Absolutely - and we will get there eventually. In the meantime, its still indicative of progress and adoption (even if it's not how anyone would want a market to work).
Buy the dip and ride rip

Eventually you’ll get your cost basis down to zero and then at that point you literally can’t lose :cool:
Tell me, when a VC backs 100 projects and the majority of them fail, are they wrong to have taken a position in the first instance?
Maybe he wasn't even aware of the mining and solving equations. It was clear to me he had given no serious study to it all and yet here he was very tempted possibly out of FOMO. Maybe the spectacular price rises are themselves the seducer.
These are market cycles surrounding innovation and an adoption curve. You won't change the inherent nature of people. Of course plenty of people have not put any serious study into it. In the bear market, crickets. This thing kicks up and I'm getting calls from people saying is it a good idea - should I bail in, yada yada. Be that as it may, that in no way means that there's nothing of substance here.
And taking this back to your ongoing complaint re. mining and solving equations - that stems for your loathing of the whole notion (because this isn't pragmatic for you Dukey - you want this to fail - simple as that). I haven't seen anyone else complain about this aspect of the whole project.

I don't make any big deal of the criminal dimension. But it does get a lot of publicity. I was pointing out the irony that that could actually underpin the hype. After all criminals ain't stupid.
Well, you can't have it both ways. You complain about the hype and yet the hype is a distraction and if anything takes away from the rollout and development of crypto. The media hype plays on peoples fear of whats new and ignorance of the topic to big up the illicit use nonsense. That is what you and others have indulged in along the way also. That's what I'm referring to.

If ever I needed my term of "cult" justified that is it. I think you really do see bitcoin as a struggle between two ideologies/cults with on one side my Big Banking Friends.
We will never agree and if you're honest with yourself, you'll see that the greater zealot is your good self when it comes to this subject. As above - and as I've pointed out to you many times before (and as you yourself have confirmed)- this is political and ideological for you - you want it to fail. Zealots come in all sorts of shapes n sizes (i.e. the 'in god we trust' cult you stem from). It's ill-becoming to be hypocritical on the subject, your Dukeness.

What is the view of the Austrian school on crypto?
The Austrian school believe in hard money - not this inequitable QE nonsense. Bitcoin is hard money.

So @tecate @WolfeTone enjoy talking to you both.........your the best of the bitcoin world and I've learned alot about the deep thoughts that underpin the movement.

Help me with this - just given my claim since Colonial Pipeline attack that the powers that be would be coming after Bitcoin hard, I've seen a bunch of stuff that I consider confirming evidence that i was right. That they've agreed with me that all things being equal BTC increases the likelihood of devastating sovereign type attacks by ransomware gangs. Lets look at the timeline:

  • May 5th Bitcoin is at $58,000
  • Elon Musk is the poster boy supporter, a global champion. Tesla accepts bitcoin, bitcoin on the balance sheet
  • May 6th - Colonial Pipeline bitcoin denominated attack happens
  • Soon after Ireland HSE bitcoin denominated attack
  • May 13th -Elon Musk, with 50% of his wealth tied up in a national defense contracting company called SpaceX, does a full 360.Hates Bitcoin. Inconceivable he got a phone call from his US national security pay masters in NASA, NSA, the WH to cut out the Bitcoin bullshit if he wants to keep SpaceX alive?
  • May 18th - China comes out with three state agencies making a statement.....at worst bans crypto buying & selling through China financial institutions, at best says crypto will never be accepted as payment mechanism and is dangerous. But put crudely the CCP sh!ts all over crpytp
  • May 19th - Bitcoin is at $36,000
These are either a series of unconnected events..........or I'm a lunatic. Help me find out if I'm a lunatic and what I've been saying about the powers that be cracking down on BTC post-Colonial is wrong. Interested in your thoughts on the above @tecate @WolfeTone ?
When market goes up or market goes down, it's important to be wary of the media as they will rush to be the first to publish an underlying reason. They will grab at the first thing they come across - and rush that out - and then it perpetuates itself from there. You can draw your own conclusions - and form your own opinion. It seems that you already have done. Good for you. As I previously outlined, it's not one that I share.
Remember that whatever our opposing views are, it can only be helpful if I understand what the actual reason for this downturn is - so I've no reason to dismiss your view without thinking it through. I just don't believe this is the one. What I will say is that fear may have set in - in others - who believe the rationale that you set out and I'm sure there was a percentile who may have sold off on that basis.
I've acknowledged that there are many regulatory twists and turns to come worldwide when it comes to crypto and regulation. We have seen governments flip flop this way and that already - on countless occasions. India is a classic example. Once again, they've banned crypto - and yet, yesterday I'm reading that they're looking at reviewing that decision again. These decisions are not as straightforward as many think.
 
Yes, if they leave the market for good.

However the fact that one of the biggest (rightly or wrongly) companies in the world used bitcoin as a store of value for a period of time will now always be true. A taboo was broken.
This is precisely the point. This progression is entirely imperfect but it is nonetheless progressing.
 
Like the spiritual and religious......when you engage in debates.....you find the goalposts constantly change to fit the believe system......I'm over this now FOR SURE.....but below is what I mean:

Religious - "god invented the earth in seven days literally"

Geological record, darwinism appears

Religous - "it was meant only figuratively, jeez were not lunatics"

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Bitcoiners - "Musk supporting bitcoin & Tesla accepting bitcoin, changes everything, he's a genius, he lands rockets - this ensures its future adoption and price moves

Musk - says BTC is not fit for purpose

Bitcoiners - "Musk is a side show, he never mattered anyway....were not lunatics
 
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Bitcoiners - "Musk supporting bitcoin & Tesla accepting bitcoin, changes everything, he's a genius, he lands rockets - this ensures its future adoption and price moves

Musk - says BTC is not fit for purpose

Bitcoiners - "Musk is a side show, he never mattered anyway....were not lunatics
Firstly, you're trying to suggest that everyone who has a position in bitcoin right now holds this view. That is not true - and it's disingenuous to suggest that it is. Musk's involvement has been complicated and the whole episode has been far from perfect. He as an individual it seems is pretty complex - but as has been speculated - there are all sorts of other factors likely at play in the background - that we don't know the whole story on.

This wayward mainstream media take on the energy debate may be doing some damage. And it shouldn't because it's shambolic and smacks of double standards.
 
Well the good news is that it looks like Musk's diamond hands emoji on twitter seems to have stabilised the market......

Who needs Central Bank Intervention to prevent a crisis when Elon Musk and Twitter can achieve the same thing....
 
Bitcoiners - "Musk supporting bitcoin & Tesla accepting bitcoin, changes everything, he's a genius, he lands rockets - this ensures its future adoption and price moves

Bitcoiners - "Musk is a side show, he never mattered anyway....were not lunatics

@letitroll i don't think you will find a sentiment like that expressed from bitcoiners in these pages.
I think you just made up that narrative to comfort your own bias.


Who needs Central Bank Intervention to prevent a crisis

Crisis! What crisis?
 
Crisis! What crisis?

Ah yes. The world of Bitcoin where a 30% intraday drop before recovering the 30% before dropping another 15-20% is just business as usual!

Hey, remember the lovely Tesla car that you wanted to buy at 8am this morning that was only going to cost you 1 bitcoin and you took it for a long test drive. Well, sorry the price went up 30% because you took so long. Oh no wait, it will cost you one bitcoin. Let me just get the paperwork. Oh wait, sorry, it is going to cost you 20% more.......
 
Well the good news is that it looks like Musk's diamond hands emoji on twitter seems to have stabilised the market......

Who needs Central Bank Intervention to prevent a crisis when Elon Musk and Twitter can achieve the same thing....
"Well the good news is that" this innovation (and accompanying market) continues to grow and it will continue to mature.
Crisis! What crisis?
Sunny's not used to this sort of thing - in the conventional markets they halt trading if they're having a bad day.
Ah yes. The world of Bitcoin where a 30% intraday drop before recovering the 30% before dropping another 15-20% is just business as usual!

Hey, remember the lovely Tesla car that you wanted to buy at 8am this morning that was only going to cost you 1 bitcoin and you took it for a long test drive. Well, sorry the price went up 30% because you took so long. Oh no wait, it will cost you one bitcoin. Let me just get the paperwork. Oh wait, sorry, it is going to cost you 20% more.......
And you can't see yourself through to understand that we're talking about the S curve and adoption - and the accompanying market going through the phases as regards adoption and maturity. Volatility is a bi-product. Gold was as volatile as bitcoin in the 70s but nobody gets upset about that sort of thing strangely enough.
 
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@letitroll i don't think you will find a sentiment like that expressed from bitcoiners in these pages.
I think you just made up that narrative to comfort your own bias.
Now, now, Wolfie you are not playing ball with your mentor who wants to keep leti sweet as he is a much more incisive critic of bitcoin than I could ever be.
 
Now, now, Wolfie you are not playing ball with your mentor who wants to keep leti sweet as he is a much more incisive critic of bitcoin than I could ever be.
Feigned humility from his Dukeness. Props to you on that - you know what they say - fake it 'til you make it.
 
"Well the good news is that" this innovation (and accompanying market) continues to grow and it will continue to mature.

Sunny's not used to this sort of thing - in the conventional markets they halt trading if they're having a bad day.

And you can't see yourself through to understand that we're talking about the S curve and adoption - and the accompanying market going through the phases as regards adoption and maturity. Volatility is a bi-product. Gold was as volatile as bitcoin in the 70s but nobody gets upset about that sort of thing strangely enough.
I don't remember anyone suggesting that gold would be an everyday medium of exchange in the 1970's either like they are doing now with bitcoin so I really have no idea what comparison you are trying to make?
So are you saying that Bitcoin is a volatile asset like gold was in the 1970's and you are giving up on the medium of exchange bit. It wasn't me that gets all excited when someone announces that they will accept bitcoin for goods. Today just shows how far fetched that is at the moment.

And I am not aware of time when I was stopped from trading in the currency markets for a major currency because of intra day volatility.......
 
I don't remember anyone suggesting that gold would be an everyday medium of exchange in the 1970's either like they are doing now with bitcoin so I really have no idea what comparison you are trying to make?
Well firstly, nobody could suggest gold very well as a medium of exchange in today's world as it fails one of the key requirements (divisibility). You've posted often enough in these threads so clearly you've been following the discussion and participating in it. Therefore, you know perfectly well that bitcoin's current use and more recent advances surround its store of value use case.

So are you saying that Bitcoin is a volatile asset like gold was in the 1970's and you are giving up on the medium of exchange bit.
On multiple occasions - over the course of four years - I've acknowledged that bitcoin is challenged in its use as a medium of exchange. Having said that, I believe that those challenges are being over come - and so, that use case is not off the table in any way, shape or form. However, if you want to summarily dismiss bitcoin today - disregarding its potential to evolve (through second layer solutions such as lightning network - through broadening acceptance and over the longer haul, reduced volatility), that's entirely up to yourself. That's not my approach.

Today just shows how far fetched that is at the moment.
All it highlights is a major drawback - but it doesn't mean that it can't be used for that purpose. If you hold the asset as a store of value - it's available to spend on a given day - should circumstances arise where it suits you to do so. If you're transferring in real time, it really doesn't matter.

And I am not aware of time when I was stopped from trading in the currency markets for a major currency because of intra day volatility.......
Is there not a mechanism to halt trade in equities markets?
 
Ah yes. The world of Bitcoin where a 30% intraday drop before recovering the 30% before dropping another 15-20% is just business as usual!

Hey, remember the lovely Tesla car that you wanted to buy at 8am this morning that was only going to cost you 1 bitcoin and you took it for a long test drive. Well, sorry the price went up 30% because you took so long. Oh no wait, it will cost you one bitcoin. Let me just get the paperwork. Oh wait, sorry, it is going to cost you 20% more.......
She's on a price discovery journey. Haven't you been on one of those, perhaps in a theme park on holidays?
 
You can't it both ways. You can't say 'Look, Tesla are buying all this bitcoin because they believe it is great and shows it is being adopted by the world' and then turn around if they sell saying 'Well who cares what they think'.......

That is exactly what has occurred on this thread for 37 pages......

Bitcoin has not been for many years what it was intended for, there is no better proof than the fact the founder walked away. BTC was meant to offer a solution to remove trusted third parts from the payment system, which it does. But it was also meant to be able for the community to run the network peer to peer on the system. Satoshi didn't foresee that the system would be gamed (GPU hacking, ASICs) leading to an arms race in computing power due to the PoW implementation which lead to the Chinese miners entering the market. This is private capital funding mining operations to profit and not borne out of the community itself.

Due to this mining approach, Bitcoin is no longer decentralized, case in point when the Chinese government reinforce a crackdown (FUD or not) the entire market dropped significantly in the last days (source Tecates tweet a few posts above).

This is why the community is split between the developers and the miners, each need each other but neither want each other. What started out as a hobby project in a small community is an entirely different beast today. There was never even intended to be exchanges to convert back to Fiat, BTC didn't start out with a $ value, it was only when people joined in asking to buy them because they couldn't mine it themselves that a notional value was added.

The vast majority of holders have no interest in the origins and are simply looking to make money from it.
 
Meanwhile the price discovery of fiat currency is to lose 99% of its value over its lifetime.
Fair point. Although to be fair one should allow for the interest (that the central bank enable) to be earned on fiat cash. Since 1928 the inflation adjusted return on the dollar has been +0.35%. There is no equivalent of interest with bitcoin.
But for sure fiat held in your pocket is destined to lose 2% per annum. At that rate it will have lost 99% of its value in 228 years, as you rightly state. Even bitcoin enthusiasts admit a non trivial chance that it will go to zero. I certainly believe it will be zero long before 2250.
Of course the dollar might go to zero, it has happened to other fiat. However, I would think we would have other things to worry about if the dollar went to zero.
 
BTC was meant to offer a solution to remove trusted third parts from the payment system, which it does.

I don't disagree with a lot what you say.
It is clear bitcoin has morphed into something else that was not envisaged in its whitepaper. Certainly, what is occurring today bares little reflection to what was in satoshis original paper.

But that is hardly unique in history? Take any amount of inventions, discoveries, ideas, and compare them to their original function, concept, design, etc to what they have become.
This is where there is disconnect between bitcoiners and no-bitcoiners. Putting away all the hyperbole (from both sides) it is my view that bitcoiners lean very much to what bitcoin may become or will be of use for, no-bitcoiners are generally stuck in what it is now, it's obvious limitations, with a lot of people in between who cannot make sense of any of it either way.

You only have to go back to satoshi's 8 page whitepaper to see that we are not talking about rocket-science. Nor are we talking about the done-deal here. It is apparent to me that what has occurred is an invention/discovery of digital scarcity that can function in a form as private money.
And as such the debate over what is/is not digital scarcity, what is/is not money (private or otherwise) rages, centering around primarily and understandably so its price action.
It appears to me that bitcoin whitepaper is simply the platform from which a private form of verifiable scarce digital money has been created. This has value. What becomes of it time will tell but I am in no doubt that bitcoin is here to stay, only to be replaced by better technology (which I imagine will be just #betterbitcoin).
 
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