Bitcoin in a hyperbolic bubble

[tecate]

I think you do but this is one rabbit hole that I am escaping from.

The Duke trying to create something out of nothing again, it seems.

 

[letitroll]

Here's your answer ->

https://twitter.com/x/status/1394661559033602049

As I mentioned, there are any amount of regulatory twists and turns over the coming years. However, in no way do I believe that ransomware will be the reason for any of them. There's chatter right now about the big banking lobby in the US trying to get some decisions made by the last administration (which would facilitate crypto custody for small banks) turned over.

Just to reiterate...the solution to ransomware is network security competence and investigation (you seem to think that the culprits can't be caught - I'm sure it's difficult but it's not impossible). Other than that, banning bitcoin isn't going to fix that problem - i'm confused as to how in the world you think that it would. If anything, it would be driving bitcoin further towards such use cases. The G7 is the G7 - it's not the 110 odd countries on the planet.

Sorry @tecate I believe Reuters before I’ll believe a guy who’s pinned tweet at the top of his twitter profile reads:

“I've honestly never seen a more perfect storm for decentralized technologies.”

Any other sources?

 

[tecate]

Sorry @tecate I believe Reuters before I’ll believe a guy who’s pinned tweet at the top of his twitter profile reads:

“I've honestly never seen a more perfect storm for decentralized technologies.”

Any other sources?

As in he works in the industry - there's no mystery there. In any event, that's the info I have for you - you can make of it what you will

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

bitcoin has lost over $400bn in a matter of weeks, far surpassing any earlier collapse. In fact I venture to suggest that this is the most precipitous fall in value of any "asset" in history.

 

[WolfeTone]

bitcoin has lost over $400bn in a matter of weeks, far surpassing any earlier collapse. In fact I venture to suggest that this is the most precipitous fall in value of any "asset" in history.

Looks like it.
Just wait until it calms down and buy up the bargain.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

Looks like it.
Just wait until it calms down and buy up the bargain.

In answer to an earlier question by @tecate I will start to have doubts about my conviction, not based on bitcoin's market cap, but if over a period of about 12 months the volatility of $/BTC is in the same parish as the volatility of $/£ AND at least one of the Nobels starts to crack. I can't see it happening.
Another little anecdote. My nephew, a smart millennial cookie with a Masters in Finance, knowing that I have Big Banking Friends, asked me a few weeks ago, I think at $60k, should he dabble a bit in bitcoin. I simply emailed him Professor Roubini's views and told him I agreed wholeheartedly. He was gobsmacked and said he wouldn't touch bitcoin after reading that.
There are a couple of takeaways here. Firstly many people, even smart ones, are easily seduced by the bitcoin hype, they are swayed by this "mining for digital gold by solving complex mathematical equations" and ironically the fact that criminals demand it as ransom underpins its credibility.
The second takeaway is that they are unaware of the damning dismissal of the whole crypto house of cards by mainstream academia.

 

[WolfeTone]

but if over a period of about 12 months the volatility of $/BTC is in the same parish as the volatility of $/£ AND at least one of the Nobels starts to crack

Ah, c'mon Duke, we are decade into this BTC thing, you are putting up another arbitrary deadline? For what purpose?

I simply emailed him Professor Roubini's views and told him I agreed wholeheartedly. He was gobsmacked and said he wouldn't touch bitcoin after reading that.

Of Roubini, my views on his contributions are not too dissimilar to your nephew, with one critical caveat.

if his was the only information available to me I would have sold out my stock of bitcoin before the end of this sentence. But it is not the only information I have.

Firstly many people, even smart ones, are easily seduced by the bitcoin hype

Here is a person on Bloomberg today, seems like a smart one. I don't know if he has been seduced or not, but I'm guessing he could hold his own against someone like Roubini. Maybe your nephew would be interested?

Smart person, seduced or no?

Here is his wiki page

Wiki page of some bloke called Kevin Turner

The second takeaway is that they are unaware of the damning dismissal of the whole crypto house of cards by mainstream academia.

That's quite a claim.

 

[EmmDee]

bitcoin has lost over $400bn in a matter of weeks, far surpassing any earlier collapse. In fact I venture to suggest that this is the most precipitous fall in value of any "asset" in history.

"Store of value"?

I accept a lot of the reasons to be supportive of BTC but the weakest one is the "store of value" one - at least until volatility becomes less of a feature of it.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

"Store of value"?

I accept a lot of the reasons to be supportive of BTC but the weakest one is the "store of value" one - at least until volatility becomes less of a feature of it.

Give her a break. She's just a young gal on a price discovery journey.

 

[tecate]

In answer to an earlier question by @tecate I will start to have doubts about my conviction, not based on bitcoin's market cap, but if over a period of about 12 months the volatility of $/BTC is in the same parish as the volatility of $/£ AND at least one of the Nobels starts to crack.

A bloodbath of March 2020 proportions for sure. However, be aware that previous cycles in 2013 and 2017 included the same price action. We're some years away from bitcoin volatility dying down - so I guess you'll be stuck in that trench for the next few years.

Firstly many people, even smart ones, are easily seduced by the bitcoin hype, they are swayed by this "mining for digital gold by solving complex mathematical equations" and ironically the fact that criminals demand it as ransom underpins its credibility.

The 'hype' with regard to this phrase you keep quoting is yours! I don't know anyone else who is making a meal out of it, Dukey. And on the second, as has been outlined to you many times, cash is the medium of choice for criminals, big banking facilitates movement of massive amounts of $ through the banking system for organised crime and credit cards and atm networks all fall victim to fraud and theft...but I wouldn't expect anything less from you but to keep on tar and feathering selectively.

The second takeaway is that they are unaware of the damning dismissal of the whole crypto house of cards by mainstream academia.

And rightly so - they are experts within the workings of Keynesian economics - nothing more. As per your friend fax machine guy, they have no notion of how this form of technological advancement impacts. Furthermore Turkeys don't vote for Christmas. It's like expecting a Christian zealot to turn up at a Mosque. They don't in any way shape or form believe in hard money. How on that basis would there be an expectation that they would give bitcoin their seal of approval? Now if you were to say that Austrian economists don't see the point of bitcoin (given that they do believe in hard money) then that's another story - but that's not what you're running with.

"Store of value"?

I accept a lot of the reasons to be supportive of BTC but the weakest one is the "store of value" one - at least until volatility becomes less of a feature of it.

Volatility has to be a part of it - there's no other way for it to develop. Think about it - Satoshi - brings bitcoin out - and we expect that it's price is finalised from day one? It couldn't possibly work that way. My thesis remains unchanged. Volatility will be a feature for many years to come - albeit on an ever decreasing basis. If you consider bitcoin as a store of value with a low time preference, then you're not going to be happy with the outcome. If you zoom out, it's still acting as a store of value right now (despite todays bloodbath)...ergo if current price was to print as a yearly close, then bitcoin is still up - year on year.

Any other sources?

Here you go.

 

[Sunny]

"Store of value"?

I accept a lot of the reasons to be supportive of BTC but the weakest one is the "store of value" one - at least until volatility becomes less of a feature of it.

Or when someone like Elon Musk no longer has the power to cause > 15% price movements on the back of something he writes on Twitter......

 

[WolfeTone]

Or when someone like Elon Musk no longer has the power to cause > 15% price movements on the back of something he writes on Twitter......

Not just bitcoin though. Musk has form with his tweeting and having dramatic impact on prices.

Musk

 

[letitroll]

Buy the dip and ride rip

Eventually you’ll get your cost basis down to zero and then at that point you literally can’t lose

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

The 'hype' with regard to this phrase you keep quoting is yours! I don't know anyone else who is making a meal out of it, Dukey.

Maybe he wasn't even aware of the mining and solving equations. It was clear to me he had given no serious study to it all and yet here he was very tempted possibly out of FOMO. Maybe the spectacular price rises are themselves the seducer.

And on the second, as has been outlined to you many times, cash is the medium of choice for criminals,

I don't make any big deal of the criminal dimension. But it does get a lot of publicity. I was pointing out the irony that that could actually underpin the hype. After all criminals ain't stupid.

It's like expecting a Christian zealot to turn up at a Mosque. They don't in any way shape or form believe in hard money. How on that basis would there be an expectation that they would give bitcoin their seal of approval?

If ever I needed my term of "cult" justified that is it. I think you really do see bitcoin as a struggle between two ideologies/cults with on one side my Big Banking Friends.

Now if you were to say that Austrian economists don't see the point of bitcoin (given that they do believe in hard money) then that's another story - but that's not what you're running with.

What is the view of the Austrian school on crypto?

 

[WolfeTone]

It was clear to me he had given no serious study to it all and yet here he was very tempted possibly out of FOMO

That thought crossed my mind also. But it actually led to me to be more concerned about Telsa stock.
How does a company spend $1.5bn on bitcoin without any proper research unless Telsa is managed by a bunch of "Yes-Elon" men and women?

Not a healthy sign, and as if he was reading the pages of AAM, Michael Burry of The Big Short, has shorted Tesla $530m!

 

[DublinHead54]

Buy the dip and ride rip

Eventually you’ll get your cost basis down to zero and then at that point you literally can’t lose

Buy the Tip sell the Dip

 

[letitroll]

So @tecate @WolfeTone enjoy talking to you both.........your the best of the bitcoin world and I've learned alot about the deep thoughts that underpin the movement.

Help me with this - just given my claim since Colonial Pipeline attack that the powers that be would be coming after Bitcoin hard, I've seen a bunch of stuff that I consider confirming evidence that i was right. That they've agreed with me that all things being equal BTC increases the likelihood of devastating sovereign type attacks by ransomware gangs. Lets look at the timeline:

• May 5th Bitcoin is at $58,000
• Elon Musk is the poster boy supporter, a global champion. Tesla accepts bitcoin, bitcoin on the balance sheet
• May 6th - Colonial Pipeline bitcoin denominated attack happens
• Soon after Ireland HSE bitcoin denominated attack
• May 13th -Elon Musk, with 50% of his wealth tied up in a national defense contracting company called SpaceX, does a full 360.Hates Bitcoin. Inconceivable he got a phone call from his US national security pay masters in NASA, NSA, the WH to cut out the Bitcoin bullshit if he wants to keep SpaceX alive?
• May 18th - China comes out with three state agencies making a statement.....at worst bans crypto buying & selling through China financial institutions, at best says crypto will never be accepted as payment mechanism and is dangerous. But put crudely the CCP sh!ts all over crpytp
• May 19th - Bitcoin is at $36,000

These are either a series of unconnected events..........or I'm a lunatic. Help me find out if I'm a lunatic and what I've been saying about the powers that be cracking down on BTC post-Colonial is wrong. Interested in your thoughts on the above @tecate @WolfeTone ?

 

[DazedInPontoon]

How do these events which you omitted fit in to your theory?

• May 17th Musk tweets "To clarify speculation, Tesla has not sold any Bitcoin"
• May19th, 30 minutes ago: Musk tweets 'diamond hands' emoji

Why did Tesla not already sell? (or is he lying about this?)

I think people are a) reading too much into his tweets and b) applying to much value to what he or Tesla does.

This too shall pass.

 

[WolfeTone]

May 13th -Elon Musk, with 50% of his wealth tied up in a national defense contracting company called SpaceX, does a full 360.Hates Bitcoin.

Although confirms today that Telsa have not sold any of their bitcoin.

Inconceivable he got a phone call from his US national security pay masters in NASA, NSA, the WH to cut out the Bitcoin bullshit if he wants to keep SpaceX alive?

Into big global conspiracy theory stuff here,....luvvin' it!

May 18th - China comes out with three state agencies making a statement

Is that May 18th 2021, or 2017?

Help me find out if I'm a lunatic and what I've been saying about the powers that be cracking down on BTC post-Colonial is wrong

Sorry, haven't seen much evidence of crackdown.

 

[DublinHead54]

I think people are a) reading too much into his tweets and b) applying to much value to what he or Tesla does.

A few pages back Musks tweets about accepting Bitcoin and announcing Tesla buying bitcoin have been used as supporting evidence of the adoption of BTC. Now we should ignore what Musk is saying?

It is blatantly obvious that Musks tweets did impact the price, and it has been widely accepted in the community as such. The issue is whether his tweets were accurate and reflective of the truth of Bitcoins energy usage is up for debate.