"Belfast" vs "Good Friday" agreement

Purple said:
I've no doubt that if there was a united Ireland on the horizon there'd be bombs going off in Dublin
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The only logic behind that would be to try provoke a civil war. Without the aid of British military intelligence it is hard to see to what end violence would achieve. With the aid of MI5 a civil war would erupt and Britains dirty tricks would be exposed once again.
 
Purple said:
In the end it will come down to money, as it always does.
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I agree, but I dont think its as simple as income taxes. I'm not a hundred per cent sure, but I would confident that the overall standard of living here is comparable, if not higher, than Northern Ireland?
 
WolfeTone said:
I agree, but I dont think its as simple as income taxes. I'm not a hundred per cent sure, but I would confident that the overall standard of living here is comparable, if not higher, than Northern Ireland?
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No, despite their much lower levels of earned income the "please don't kill each other" bribes they get actually give them a higher standard of living.
Marginal rates of income tax are lower, property is cheaper and, despite the fact that we have higher levels of per capita funding in our health service (adjusted for PPP) their healthcare is better.
 
@Purple well if the standard of living is higher, it does go someway to why many nationalists prefer to remain in the UK. That is a challenge for prospective UI in improving the standard of living here and convincing northerners of that improvement.
 
WolfeTone said:
@Purple and convincing northerners of that improvement.
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Do we really need to sell the union (of Ireland)? Other than misty eyed sentimentality I'm not lusting after the 4th green field, and feel it'll cost me dearly if I do get it. Now, it's a price I'm willing to pay if its for the peaceful resolution of matters on this island, for example if WM pulls the plug or they otherwise can't run the 6 properly, and while I want to be ready for that eventuality I'm not wishing for it as such. So should we be supporting Northern Nationalists on matters such as the ILA, and presuming that does get over the line shouldn't we go with "sure aren't you grand now (thumbs up)"?
 
@Betsy Og You hit the nail on the head there. To listen to @WolfeTone it seems he would do anything (peaceful of course) to have a UI, maybe even bribe the orangies. It is as if the concept of UI itself is a Holy Grail, even if everybody had emigrated.
An interesting barrier to political UI, which is of RoI making, is the separate currency. I think even Northern Nationalists would be loathe to be forced onto the €. I know El Sal has a dual currency but I don't think there is any political entity in the world where the legal tender is different between two parts of its jurisdiction.
 
WolfeTone said:
@Purple well if the standard of living is higher, it does go someway to why many nationalists prefer to remain in the UK. That is a challenge for prospective UI in improving the standard of living here and convincing northerners of that improvement.
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Yes, and that, more than anything, involved improving efficiency within the State sector.
I never got why the people who are advocates of big government aren't also ruthless about efficiency.
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
An interesting barrier to political UI, which is of RoI making, is the separate currency. I think even Northern Nationalists would be loathe to be forced onto the €.
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Yea, see that's not something I'd be willing to give up. I like this country as it is. I don't want it to change to suit the Nordies. I know that's selfish and I know we sold out the Northern Catholics in 1921/22 but we've emerged from our past and are relatively free from it. getting shackled to the past again doesn't make me feel warm and fuzzy.
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
to listen to @WolfeTone it seems he would do anything (peaceful of course) to have a UI
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Far from it. I would be at one with @Betsy Og on that front. Unfortunately the "why can't we all just get along" sentiment hasn't really resonated yet with everyone.
So in trying to figure out why that is, the matter of a divided country that is steeped in violent sectarian conflict going back through the centuries and up to as recent as the end of the last century comes to the fore. Who knew?

I don't have a resolution to it other than to allow the people who live on this island to decide what is best for themselves. I personally think a unified country that enshrines religious and political identities for all the best way forward. I support all those who actively pursue this.
That said, unlike most united Irelanders I know I would be prepared to rejoin the commonwealth in exchange for end to partition and an All Ireland parliament. I don't really care much for flags or whose sits as head of the country. If I am to expect that northern nationalists should accept their lot under the Crown and get on with it, then I don't see why I should not be prepared to do the same?

Home Rule for slow learners, if you will.
 
@WolfeTone
Sorry, I don't believe you.
I mentioned that McD commented that support for the Union in NI was 2/1 according to polls and you sought to question the validity of such polls.
I think you would be unhappy if an actual border poll turned out that way and that you would prefer a 50%+1 for UI. The former would give real hope for reconciliation in NI and would be welcomed by all except SF in RoI as well; the latter could spell a period of very serious conflict on the whole island.
So simple question, if there was a border poll in NI which would you prefer: An overwhelming support for the Union or a 50%+1 for a UI?
 
@Duke of Marmalade I didn't question the validity of any poll. Merely made the observation that once an election campaign, or referendum campaign kicks-off polls can, and do regularly, swing significantly in either direction. Here is what I said.

WolfeTone said:
Once a poll is called, the result can swing significantly in either direction
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I would of course prefer a majority vote in favour of a UI, the larger the vote in favour the better. But 50%+1 is a majority, there is no getting around this. Backed (presumably) by resounding majority in South from a much larger electorate, the message will be clear - the people of Ireland, All Ireland, want to reunify the country.

If reconciliation can be found with, or without a United Ireland, then there is nothing to discuss. If a majority voting for a UI is the source of further conflict, then the fundamental reason for conflict through the centuries will be laid bare for the world to see.

Again, I reiterate, the SF push for a border poll is not first in the expectation of winning that poll (although that would be the icing on the cake) but rather to establish the principle of consent, the principle of self-determination, in practice.

The DUP hostility to a border poll derives from their belief that sovereignty rests with in the Crown, and only the destruction of the monarchy can sever the link to the British Crown.
The people are not permitted, under this religious zealotry, to determine otherwise.

Adams was right when he said "we need to break these ********"
 
Betsy Og said:
The repeated need to break people does not bode well tbh....
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Yes, the language is undiplomatic for sure. But it is the sentiment of breaking the mindset that sets to deny others the pursuit of their goals that is in mind here.
The whole purpose of a Republic is to bestow civil and religious liberty to all. Even in Britain, under the monarchy, that is as evident there as well.
It is in NI, in that quarter of unionism, that is not prepared to tolerate the diversity of all the people here that needs to be broken. I support that endeavour.
 
@WolfeTone
Your reaction to the suggestion of a 2/1 poll suggested to me that you would be unhappy if that were an accurate assessment of opinion in NI.
Just to draw extreme pictures, I think you have admitted that you would prefer a 50%+1 for a UI rather than 100% against a UI. The latter would suggest a very contented position all round, the former would precipitate a very unhappy period for the whole island - except those like your good self who seem to have some sentimental attachment to the concept and of course except those like SF/IRA who would wallow in the triumphalism and mayhem.
Since I am hypothesising extreme situations which would I prefer: a UI with 100% contentment all round or partition with a similar 100% contentment all round? Other than the possibility of an all Ireland soccer team I couldn't care between the two.
 
WolfeTone said:
Even in Britain, under the monarchy, that is as evident there as well.
It is in NI, in that quarter of unionism, that is not prepared to tolerate the diversity of all the people here that needs to be broken. I support that endeavour.
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So would a more complete union with Britain, or more specifically England, solve that problem?
 
WolfeTone said:
sentiment of breaking the mindset
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...or the knees..... #cudgel

I'm only winding you up Wolfie, but seriously, mindsets are "risen above" more than broken, and unfortunately SF are not the types to make us aspire to higher motives. If we had SDLP & UUP running NI since GFA I think we'd be closer to a UI, and it would be less of an issue anyway, the temperature would be a lot more comfortable and there'd probably be an ILA in place at least a decade ago. So, fair play to them for no longer shooting and bombing us, but beyond that it seems they just can't get things done. #highpointwasGFA #revivededamonster(DUP)
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
suggested to me that you would be unhappy if that were an accurate assessment of opinion in NI.
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Why did it suggest that to you? If polls can swing significantly EITHER way it means that I'm open to the prospect of 70/30 even 80/20 result.
Duke of Marmalade said:
I think you have admitted that you would prefer a 50%+1 for a UI rather than 100% against a UI
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No I have not. A 100% against a UI is end of discussion.
But to play around a bit with your examples, let's use 99% against and 1% in favour. The only legitimate outcome of that is for NI to remain in the UK with the right of the 1% to pursue a UI through exclusively peaceful and democratic means until it reaches 50%+1, if ever.

Purple said:
So would a more complete union with Britain, or more specifically England, solve that problem?
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Its possible, but in my opinion it would not, as I was prone to say once upon a time "England is the source of all our ills", or something to that effect. England manages itself just fine, its its management of Ireland that is a failure. Brexit the most recent example.

Betsy Og said:
mindsets are "risen above" more than broken, and unfortunately SF are not the types to make us aspire to higher motives
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Yes, definitely a more diplomatic tone in that.
If SF can't do it, who can? I mean in a sense, that the aspiration for a UI is live and embedded in the fabric of our constitution. It is a political obligation of the elected members of our parliament that legislate within the framework of that constitution. If SF are not providing the aspiration, who is providing it?

Betsy Og said:
If we had SDLP & UUP running NI since GFA I think we'd be closer to a UI
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I would disagree. The UUP and SDLP were the prominent parties during the times of the conflict. They sought at all times to continually marginalise and exclude those who already had a disdain for the political system and saw only conflict as the answer. Their ineptitude in the face of what was in front of them only helped to prolong the conflict.
Only when John Hume took the great leap forward, against the rage of the great and good of 'moderate' Irish society, including his own party, did peace come dropping slow. He showed how dialogue, inclusivity, tolerance, could pay dividends. He showed the politicians what being a politician was all about.

It's easy to think that the SDLP and UUP represented the moderate, law-abiding, civil electorate - but in the face of a sectarian conflict, with British Army on the streets, with police officers being shot and blown-up, with cover-ups of mass murder by state agents and paramilitaries, with censorship, shoot-to-kill, indiscrimanate bombing etc, for 25yrs!
Their overall record of managing NI is abysmal.

Instead we have the two hard extremists at the political dining table now. Instead of bombs and bullets they are fighting over the Irish Language Act and the British sausage.

My view is best to keep them there a while yet longer.
 
The UUP had their hands on the levers of power historically, so I certainly don't absolve them, but I do give them credit for getting to the GFA - at huge "personal" cost. Tbh I don't think the SDLP shoulder the blame for the mayhem, they commanded the bulk of the nationalist vote, it was only the silence of the gun brought SF to the fore (now that's not entirely fair to them, but a fair chunk of it). Gotta dash, more of this anon (as George might say)
 
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Betsy Og said:
Tbh I don't think the SDLP shoulder the blame for the mayhem,
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Neither do I. Just to be clear, it was the ineptitude of political intrangience across the board. From SDLP to UUP to successive British and Irish governments.
There is little point in including SF in that as they were politically destitute until Adams took the reigns in mid '80s. Even then, they did not emerge as a political force until early' 90's

I'm not trying to lay blame. Politics had failed, it survives on trust. In the circumstances of' 70's and '80's in NI, it was an abysmal place.
I don't pour scorn on those who were genuine in their intent but failed.
 
@WolfeTone
I am just teasing out the extent of your "sentimental/emotional" attachment to a UI. Nothing wrong with such sentiments I assure you, it is boasted by every political party down here and the nationalist ones up there.
I presume you would accept that a 50%+1 result could be very destabilising for the whole island whilst a resounding rejection would have the opposite effect. I suspect, but I may be wrong, that you would prefer the 50%+1 despite the instability. I am not claiming you would be like SF/IRA who would welcome the 50%+1 because of the instability.
 
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