"Belfast" vs "Good Friday" agreement

[Purple]

Negates the substantive point of what he has to say about 50%+1 majority... just to clarify.

Okay, that's fair enough. I disagree of course.

The Shinners are only a minority themselves, why such emphasis on what they say or do over any other party?
Is it because there is little of substance to what any other party says or does on the issue of re-unification?

Maybe it's because they play to the gallery so much on the topic. That and the fact they are a front for a terrorist organisation which has chosen to stop murdering people (unless it's business related, then it's still okay).
Maybe I'm also sick of hearing Leo making a show of himself bringing the Shinners into just about any issue so that he can have a go at them.
But probably it's mostly a realisation that if we end up with a half-baked united Ireland and along with the associated economic, social and political problems that will go with it the reality is that the Shinners will have been the driving force. We've enough nutters in the Dáil without a bunch of extremist Christian unionists thrown into the mix.

I would think so.

Yes, I know you would.

 

[Purple]

In fairness to Wolfie, that particular devil got detailed in the GFA, simple majority poll. Calls for reinterpretation of that are naive, it was an absolute cornerstone of the GFA and rightly so - the principle of consent. The bit that was "constructive ambiguity" was the NI SoS having the right (absolute it seems) to call or not call for a border poll. I'm not so worried about that, on the basis that I don't believe the UK really wants NI any longer (did it ever?), and that this will be a slam dunk no brainer if/when Scotland extracates itself from the artist formely know as the union. I can well imagine an English nationalist WM (even more than now) wondering why on earth they are writing cheques for NI. So if you get a years worth of polls saying (say) 56% for UI then I don't see a NI SoS holding out. That said it'll probably have to be a Labour NI SoS #nevertrustaTory

Yes, the reality bit was the NI SoS having the power to call or not call a referendum.
I'm far from convinced that a majority in NI would vote for unification, that presumes they can manage to agree on what they are voting for.
What sort of a united Ireland would they be talking about?

Would they continue to get the handouts from Her Majesty's Government?
Would they continue to get their UK pensions?
Would we all be in the EU?
Would we be in the commonwealth?
Would we impose our better funded but rubbish healthcare system on them?
Would we impose our superior education system on them?
Would they get a larger proportion of seats in the Dáil? Would it be a Dáil?

All that and hundreds of other things.

And that's not even considering the cultural devastation caused by the loss of the traditions of smuggling and Diesel laundering on the border.

Much and all as it puts a smile on the face watching the old enemy dismember itself in the ned it always comes down to money and a diminished UK isn't good on that front. If the Unionists traditions have to be respected, all that god and bigotry and whatnot, where will we send our homosexuals if England is closed?

 

[Betsy Og]

Maybe I'm also sick of hearing Leo making a show of himself bringing the Shinners into just about any issue so that he can have a go at them.

Leo's problem is that he's a class warrior, and can't hide his disdain for the working classes - "welfare cheats cheat everyone". He occupies, in the South, the role that the DUP do in the North - the canvass is simple, "we're the only thing between you and Leo/DUP". So I wish he'd stop fulfilling that role so splendidly. We might as well join the conspiracy of silence about the 'RA cos the young uns don't give a toss - there's a man promising them all they want and that's all they want to hear, and sure "the rich" will pay for it. There's an appointment with reality coming when SF come to power.

 

[Betsy Og]

Quick fire buzzer round:

Yes, the reality bit was the NI SoS having the power to call or not call a referendum.
I'm far from convinced that a majority in NI would vote for unification, that presumes they can manage to agree on what they are voting for.
What sort of a united Ireland would they be talking about? TBD

Would they continue to get the handouts from Her Majesty's Government? Initially at least & probably the yanks too.
Would they continue to get their UK pensions? Yes or their funds get transferred to Jezebel Inc. (Free State).
Would we all be in the EU? Defin-itely. Thank you Inda for slaying that dragon.
Would we be in the commonwealth? Meh, not a deal breaker.
Would we impose our better funded but rubbish healthcare system on them? Rebrand to NHS - do it now. #prep
Would we impose our superior education system on them? Yes, other than the compulsory gaeilge.
Would they get a larger proportion of seats in the Dáil? Would it be a Dáil? They would in their.....eye

All that and hundreds of other things. Hit me, hit me.

And that's not even considering the cultural devastation caused by the loss of the traditions of smuggling and Diesel laundering on the border. Aye, the Dieseltacht, ocón ocón

Much and all as it puts a smile on the face watching the old enemy dismember itself in the ned it always comes down to money and a diminished UK isn't good on that front. If the Unionists traditions have to be respected, all that god and bigotry and whatnot, where will we send our homosexuals if England is closed? We'll all be in the 21st century, ne'er a backward glance

 

[Purple]

Leo's problem is that he's a class warrior, and can't hide his disdain for the working classes - "welfare cheats cheat everyone".

I don't think that's fair. He just can't keep his mouth shut.
That said I've a distain for the whole "Classes" thing. This isn't 1840's England and just about everyone in this country with an income works.
Tony Benn, the great British Labour politician, was asked what made someone working class. He said that anyone who derives their income from their labour was working class. I'd go with that. This is a Republic so we should be rejecting all that antediluvian guff.

 

[Purple]

We'll all be in the 21st century, ne'er a backward glance

With Brexit they have to look over their shoulder to see what's in front of them.

More generally though, have you made your plans known to the bowel hat wearers and are they in agreement?
As McDowell pointed out, all the Unionists have to do is refuse to have the conversation and we won't even be agreeing on anything to vote on.
Of course the shift amongst young Unionists to the Alliance Party may continue but when the reality of the Unification wolf is at the door the Unionist family may unite again.

It is ironic that the Presbyterians are the most vociferous opponents of a United Ireland since they were the ones who started the whole nationalist thing because the Anglicans were treating like the Papists.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

A very interesting observation of McDowell is that whilst the sectarian headcount has at last equalised, polls show a 60/40 or even 2/1 support for the union. That is massive, for example compared with the 54/46 against Scottish Indy which itself was regarded as very convincing. SF/IRA are fantasising with any talk of border polls, they can't understand that their sectarian calculations are no longer valid.
This is an ironic result of the GFA and indeed changes wrought by direct rule before that. The days of feeling second class citizens and MOPEs is long gone. The irony will increase if there is an Acht na Gaelge - they will ask just in what way would we better off in a UI? The instinctive belief up there even amongst nationalists is and always was that a UI is a much riskier economic prospect than the status quo. This national inferiority complex was maybe declining during the Celtic Tiger years but the goings on of Drummer et al just reaffirmed that they were right all along - Paddies just can't be trusted to run the show.
Sorry Leo, unless there are enormous medical breakthroughs there will not be a UI in your lifetime.

 

[WolfeTone]

Maybe it's because they play to the gallery so much on the topic.

Well it's up to everyone else to play their tune to the gallery so with regard to what they believe a UI will look like. Stop leaving it to SF.
In fairness to Leo he has broken the mould in that regard in the last week. Dismissing, rightly, the "now is not the right time" brigade. He will need to sustain it however to show it is not just an election time photo-bomb on the SF stage. I get the sense he was genuine in his expressions, remains to be seen if thd rest of his party responds accordingly and put the issue of a UI more front and centre and add meat to the bone - contest elections in NI.

 

[Betsy Og]

More generally though, have you made your plans known to the bowel hat wearers and are they in agreement?
As McDowell pointed out, all the Unionists have to do is refuse to have the conversation and we won't even be agreeing on anything to vote on.

That is precisely why there isn't and shouldn't be a veto. My view is we plan for a UI, if they don't want to be part of the conversation so be it, we drive on. With the DUP types asking them to participate is encouraging them to think that have control of the process. At the end of the process we have a shovel ready/oven ready proposed UI, we make any changes now that dont cost us anything (like a BH on the 12th). After that it happens or it doesn't, as mentioned my A position is that, taking fright at the feasibility of a UI, unionists decide to make NI such that the pro UI camp never get to 50%, coercion won't give that, parity of esteem should.

 

[Betsy Og]

I don't think that's fair. He just can't keep his mouth shut.

Even his own lads called him Tory boy, long before he came to power. SF thrive off attrition, pitting sections of society against each other, Leo just cant resist taking the bait and dragging us all into the squabble. While we haven't had the greatest politicians, the "all things to all men" approach has kept the country stable and centrist.

 

[WolfeTone]

polls show a 60/40 or even 2/1 support for the union. That is massive, for example compared with the 54/46 against Scottish Indy which itself was regarded as very convincing.

True, but the Scottish ref was a result whereas 60/40 is a pre-campaign poll. Once a poll is called, the result can swing significantly in either direction.

Anyway the SF pursuit of a border poll is not in the expectation that they would actually succeed, rather to establish the border poll and principle of consent as the means with which the future of Ireland is to be decided. It will reduce the sovereignty of the British monarch to secondary position to the will of the people. Its why DUP cannot countenance there ever being a border poll and why Arlene would leave if a UI were to occur through consent of the people.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

True, but the Scottish ref was a result whereas 60/40 is a pre-campaign poll. Once a poll is called, the result can swing significantly in either direction.

Polls would tend to follow tribal identities since there is nothing else at stake. The real thing would be even more against a UI.

Anyway the SF pursuit of a border poll is not in the expectation that they would actually succeed,

Yes they're not thick. It is purely to wind up sectarian tensions.

 

[WolfeTone]

Yes they're not thick. It is purely to wind up sectarian tensions.

How does implementing what was agreed by 70%+ population invoke sectarian tensions?
Many Protestants voted for GFA, including the leading Unionist party at the time, the UUP.
Unionists need to get their head out of the sand.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

How does implementing what was agreed by 70%+ population invoke sectarian tensions?

I think what you mean is "how silly is that?" which is fair comment. But if you really mean "how" then you have no understanding of current NI mindsets.

 

[WolfeTone]

you have no understanding of current NI mindsets

Ok, let me put it another way. How does implementing what was agreed politically and endorsed by the electorate invoke sectarian tensions?

Surely what you mean is that the sectarianism is invoked and sustained by a deep-seated insecurity and paranoia that insists if everything is not cloaked in a union jack then the sky will fall in and Arlene & Friends will have to leave because they cannot fathom the notion of living with their neighbours on this island to advance the social and economic order of the day.
That is why, under no circumstances, can the DUP accept that the people of NI ever have a say, or determine their own future.

I think they call it "No Surrender", everyone else calls it self-determination.

 

[Purple]

That is why, under no circumstances, can the DUP accept that the people of NI ever have a say, or determine their own future.

I agree with that. I've said before that no matter who wins traditional Unionism loses because it's a dinosaur it's defined by what it isn't, not what it is. Not for a moment do I think that the DUP will ever respect a democratic vote for a united Ireland.

Many Protestants voted for GFA, including the leading Unionist party at the time, the UUP.
Unionists need to get their head out of the sand.

Many have their heads out of the sand. They are voting for the Alliance Party.

 

[Purple]

Even his own lads called him Tory boy, long before he came to power.

People call other people all sorts of things but looking at his track record in office he's firmly on a socially liberal side and every party in Ireland is left of centre by international standards.

SF thrive off attrition, pitting sections of society against each other, Leo just cant resist taking the bait and dragging us all into the squabble.

I do agree with you there. The man is very fond of the sound of his own voice. His habit of actually answering the question he was asked is usually refreshing but can cause problems. Simon Coveney is far more measured.

While we haven't had the greatest politicians, the "all things to all men" approach has kept the country stable and centrist.

I agree with that as well. The up side of Civil War politics was two parties which were a broad church and very centralist.

 

[Purple]

That is precisely why there isn't and shouldn't be a veto. My view is we plan for a UI, if they don't want to be part of the conversation so be it, we drive on. With the DUP types asking them to participate is encouraging them to think that have control of the process. At the end of the process we have a shovel ready/oven ready proposed UI, we make any changes now that dont cost us anything (like a BH on the 12th). After that it happens or it doesn't, as mentioned my A position is that, taking fright at the feasibility of a UI, unionists decide to make NI such that the pro UI camp never get to 50%, coercion won't give that, parity of esteem should.

That all sounds fine in theory but it doesn't take many to cause a serious amount of trouble. I've no doubt that if there was a united Ireland on the horizon there'd be bombs going off in Dublin. SF/IRA kept the sectarian pot boiling for 40 years with a few dozen active terrorist members. The Unionists are more than capable of doing the same thing.

 

[Betsy Og]

That all sounds fine in theory but it doesn't take many to cause a serious amount of trouble. I've no doubt that if there was a united Ireland on the horizon there'd be bombs going off in Dublin. SF/IRA kept the sectarian pot boiling for 40 years with a few dozen active terrorist members. The Unionists are more than capable of doing the same thing.

Possibly, but maybe we can take heart that Dissident Republicans seem unable to operate to any great extent. I've no doubt that any UI would be phrased in with substantial bribes <cough> I mean community funding for stakeholders & all manner of guarantees. It tends to be the DUP who make most noise but do no fighting, loyalists had their number back at the time of the GFA "Where will you lead us?" they heckled Paisley. So it'll depend on whether there's A) appetite among loyalists (Jamie Bryson would talk for (United) Ireland but I don't think he's any great leader of men & B) capability - one hopes they would not be aided and abetted by state security forces in the future. If the Shankill, East Belfast, Portydown can be lifted out of the worst of their sityeation then maybe that'll take heat out of it -again something that should be happening now in ghettos of all description.

Anyway, we can only do that which is within our control, we should do it now so that the dust will have settled before this becomes a very live issue - if we wait we'll be told by pearl clutchers that we're inflaming a delicate situation. After that its a case of "give us a shout whenever (if ever) ye are ready lads".

 

[Purple]

If we want the Unionists (and nominal Nationalists) to want aa United Ireland, or a sufficient number of them to carry a vote, then the first thing we need to do is get our State sector in order and lower income taxes. In the end it will come down to money, as it always does.