A turning point. Trump and Brexit

Betsy Og said:
If Scotland goes then NI looks like an outlier.
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NI is a two part process though - (1) does NI want to leave the UK and (2) does ROI want to accept NI (they surely don't want to be totally independent). I'm not at all sure ROI would want to or should take in NI - it would be very expensive (they receive something like 7B from the UK annually just to keep themselves going) and troublesome. If we did take NI, it would want to come with a massive dowry from the UK!
 
Fair point but I still maintain that it is a non sequitur to say that Scotland wanting the UK as a whole to remain implies that Scotland wants to remain irrespective of the rest of the UK. In the case of NI this is even more starkly the case. It is really disingenuous for Martin McGuinness to argue that the majority in NI want to remain in the EU. Those unionists who voted to remain were absolutely voting in the context of the UK as a whole, no way do they want to remain irrespective of what the rest of the UK does.
In general, why is Scotland in the EU any more ridiculous than Ireland being in the EU?, should Ireland leave so??,
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Another good point. Personally I thought Ireland going for the Euro when our biggest trading partner was opting out was a mistake motivated by anti British sentiments. What would we give now not to have joined the Euro? I don't think we should dismiss leaving the EU along with Britain but of course given our traditional anti Britishness there is absolutely no way that any party will go there.
If Scotland goes then NI looks like an outlier.
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Not half as much an outlier as Gibraltar or The Falklands. If Scotland goes it is because the people of Scotland wish for it. There is no way the people of NI, Gibraltar or The Falklands are going to wish to break away from Britain anytime soon.
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
Not half as much an outlier as Gibraltar or The Falklands. If Scotland goes it is because the people of Scotland wish for it. There is no way the people of NI, Gibraltar or The Falklands are going to wish to break away from Britain anytime soon.
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True Duke, but should Scotland leave then will England really want to keep NI? The union would really be devalued if Scotland opt out so anything is possible if that were to happen. One thing is for sure, this vote has really shaken things up and it will be an interesting couple of years ahead to see what way the dust settles on Europe. There are a number of different ways this could go ... Britain & Ireland union anyone?!
 
Ceist Beag said:
True Duke, but should Scotland leave then will England really want to keep NI?
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It is a long time since England "really wanted to keep NI", possibly strategically during WWII. It was one of the first moves in the peace process for the Secretary of State, Peter Prior, to announce what had become de facto anyway "Britain has no strategic or selfish interest in retaining NI". Leaving aside the fact that it wouldn't like a civil war on its doorstep Britain's interest in NI is the totally honourable one of its commitment to let the majority in the Provence decide whether or not to remain in the UK. What a relief for them it would be if there was a peaceful transition to a United Ireland, they would be shot of that subsidy for a start.

So despite the contrived fantasies of SF this Brexit vote does not in one iota advance the prospects of a United Ireland.
 
It gives SF a reason to bring it up, which they are gagging to do. The GFA provides for it, so it's not outlandish in that sense.

No major appetite down South I'd say. Not sure how demographics shape up in NI, but prob a fair few who will vote with head/wallet anyway. Wait and see on Scotland and take it from there.
 
Ceist Beag said:
should Scotland leave then will England really want to keep NI?
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If Scotland skedaddle then England would offload the North in a heartbeat, they'd have to pay though.

I'm delighted that the UK voted Leave (no doubt a minority view on AAM). The European political classes may want ever closer union but the peoples of Europe don't really seem to want it, methinks the majority would prefer a simpler EEC which is about ease of trade and travel, and no more.

When French people rejected the EU Constitution the EU didn't listen, they just dressed the EU Constitution up as the Lisbon Treaty and denied the French a vote. When the Irish people rejected the EU Constitution/Lisbon Treaty the EU didn't listen . . I'd say they are listening now, just too late. It will be interesting to see if the calamity predicted by the doom merchants comes to pass.
 
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For what it's worth I agree completely MichaelM. I'm not happy the UK voted to Leave (as I think reform from inside would have been better and it now puts barriers between us and the UK which were not there before now) but I do think that the majority of the citizens of the EU agree with the British in that the EU is no longer what any of us want and would prefer to see it go back to the principals of the EEC. I don't particularly like Ireland being referred to as a state within the EU and hopefully now this vote will inject some long overdue discussions at rewinding some of the decisions made to bring the EU to where it currently stands, it's just really sad that Britain had to leave in the meantime.
 
Michaelm, you seem to ascribe some profound political analysis to those who voted Brexit. I fear the explanation is much more prosaic. The working class bought into the immigration card big time. This was mainly not racist. The threat was from white immigrants from Eastern Europe. And arguments that migration from that source undercut wages and put pressure on housing etc. is not all bogus.
 
Likewise I do not weep for 'the European project', should have left it at the trade level, I accept I voted in all the rest but the a la carte menu wasn't available...

Here's hoping they pull in their horns and give the people what they want, not the masterplan they are working to.
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
Michaelm, you seem to ascribe some profound political analysis to those who voted Brexit. I fear the explanation is much more prosaic. The working class bought into the immigration card big time.
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That ties up exactly with what I have seen on UTV and BBC today.

But also, the leave campaigners seem surprised that they won.

In interviews, they don’t seem to have thought beyond the Britain has regained its sovereignty mantra to what this effectively means for British businesses and trade.

They are also deflecting questions about border issues, including the situation at Calais.

Teresa Villiars doesn’t appear to have any appreciation of future border issues between what will be the EU and the UK while others are relying on the French honouring the Le Touquet agreement, which allows the British to carry out passport checks in Calais, rather than shifting the problem to Dover.

What if Marine Le Pen were to be elected?
 
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The saying "never overestimate the intelligence of the electorate" rings very true in this instance.
I actually think the internet is making people more silly and dumber than they were 30 years ago. Would the previous generation have taken such a risk especially when they knew what real austerity meant. If UK was a poor struggling country you could see the logic of taking a big leap. But today the British are some of the richest people on the planet even the poorest of the British have never had it so good.
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
When they are black.
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Thanks. Because there were these folk (Arabs and Asians and the like) and I didn't like them at all at all (wasn't really sure why) and someone challenged me that I was just being an oul racist - and I told them I've nothing much agin the pure black man so I couldn't be racist - so I'm obliged to ya that you've cleared that one up for me. If only the bloody frogs would have a proper frog's lunch on Sunday, like.
 
I am personally pleased that the UK decided to leave the EU because of the far left ideology of the EU.

I do find it fascinating how Sinn Fein have been saying since their beginnings they they don't like being dictated to by a foreign power and now they are in favour of being ruled by the EU powers that be.
 
I guess it depends on how much you value (what price you put on) absolute soverignty and De Valera like notions of self-sufficiency. Most people choose "sharing" (grinds teeth) soverignty in order for economic benefit - a pragmatic view that even the Shinners cannot ignore. Not since the Egypt/Israel 7 days war has a nation so dramatically shot itself in the foot as the UK on Brexit. To extent to which its dawning on the leave side is almost funny if it wasnt so serious. Nevertheless after a couple of years of hand wringing I'd say we'll be back more or less where we started.
 
Betsy Og said:
Not since the Egypt/Israel 7 days war has a nation so dramatically shot itself in the foot as the UK on Brexit.
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I don't know, Ireland joining the euro when sterling was its natural currency match

What was missing from the debate was the sheer hassle of Brexit. A suggestion that it was a simple "IN/OUT" referendum was highly irresponsible. Someone on the Remain side sould have pointed out that a "simple" IN/OUT was not on the cards. I am sure if Ireland was given a simple IN/OUT of the euro we would vote Out. The reason we stay In the euro is not because we love it but because it would be horrendously risky to exit it. The Union Jack wavers of the Leave campaign must feel terribly frustrated and cheated today to find out that it will take forever to actually exit and meanwhile sterling and the economy goes south. south
 
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Duke of Marmalade said:
I don't know, Ireland joining the euro when sterling was its natural currency match
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I'll admit I know very little about this (never stopped you before sez you ..) but was joining the Euro of itself the issue or was it bad lending? I know we couldnt mess with interest rates to regulate the economy, but didnt it unlock long term low interest rates which benefited us greatly until we bet the lot on property. So if not in the Euro we could have jacked up interest rates, but in the Euro we could have extricated our heads from where there shouldn't have been and stopped the mania.

The funny thing re Bexit was everyone assumed it would fail so no-one thought about what next. There was an onus on the Leave campaign to paint the picture of what next, but the reality is that it'll probably be much the same - if they go the Norway route there doesnt seem to be a huge amount of difference (adopting Directives, paying into the kitty etc). While Farange is a 'get what you see' idiot, I thought Boris for all his zaniness had a bit going on upstairs, interesting to see how he reflects on the fallout in time.
 
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