Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

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SHARP said:
Heard at the weekend from the employee of one of the largest property developers in the country that the Owner is currently selling ALL his Irish Property Portfolio.....except his main residence.

Rumours that he is getting out of the business, but when I asked about his other property interests abroad - "no they are staying the same - he's only selling the Irish ones"

Seems to me like another indicator of how people " in the know " realise that we are at the top of the curve and ready to fall......

Interesting...
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All this talk of "in-the-know-ness" is annoying me now (a recurring theme in this thread). Either name this well-known property developer, or stop boasting on AAM about the fact that you are "in-the-know" more so than anybody else. I'm sure your intention was to give more credibility to your opinion by declaring yourself more "in-the-know", but your opinion is actually diminished by failing to reveal your source!

So no more in the know, about someone who we all know... ya know?
 
Remix said:
I agree. The first article is from 1999 and what saved the market in that instance was the ECB (from Oct 2000) taking interest rates down to
emergency low levels and keeping them there way too long for Ireland's good.

The housing market entered a frenzy with crazy lending and a growth in personal debt never before seen in Ireland (and probably the world).

What's different about this years slowdown ? Interest rates are going up and Ireland has the world's most severe ratio of private debt to GDP (190%).
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just come facts:

first article date: dec 1998
ECB rate cut: 11 May 2001 from 4.75 to 4.5
after 29 months

Fed rate cut Jan 3 2000,

ECB and FED delay was 17 months

US bond market is starting to price in a FED rate cut late 2007, ECB might start rate cuts in 2008, thats a guess using previous cycle history.

disclosure:
i do not own a house, just thought i should write some facts to balance out one sided consensus here..

US has existing home median price drop last month first time in 11 yrs, report came out today, but prices never went down in US for one whole year since 30s depression . any flaws here please correct me.
 
This is an extract from an article on ireland.com about the US property market.Prices there are down about 1.7% from Aug 05 to Aug 06.

David Lereah, the Realtors' chief economist, said the drop in prices had been expected, indicating that sellers are finally starting to lower their asking prices in the face of weaker sales and soaring inventories.

We seem to be catching up on the Americans quickly. Our inventories are increasing rapidy, there has been some slight reduction in asking prices and sales are certainly weaker.To me this can only mean the downturn will be far worse than what they will experience.
 
Remix said:
I agree. The first article is from 1999 and what saved the market in that instance was the ECB (from Oct 2000) taking interest rates down to
emergency low levels and keeping them there way too long for Ireland's good.

The housing market entered a frenzy with crazy lending and a growth in personal debt never before seen in Ireland (and probably the world).

What's different about this years slowdown ? Interest rates are going up and Ireland has the world's most severe ratio of private debt to GDP (190%).
Click to expand...

is per-capita GDP to debt is worlds most severe too?anybody knows? i dont.
 
zac said:
is per-capita GDP to debt is worlds most severe too?anybody knows? i dont.
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Not sure if I am understanding the question but if it is :
is our per capita debt to our per capita GDP the worlds worst then yes. It is the same ratio as our debt to GDP
 
fatmanknows said:
[broken link removed]

See No 4 in List - 13 Darty Road - amv €3.75m

above property was due to be auctioned this thursday 28th. Just passed over weekend and noticed auction sign replaced with 'For Sale' sign. Seems like there's no confidence of selling this in the room - change of tactics to avoid having a failed sale at auction.
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AFAIK the auction sign was ripped off by kids. There's a piece of the auction sign hanging off. I live just off Dartry Road and this house has attracted a lot of viewings so I doubt they are not going to auction.
 
zac said:
is per-capita GDP to debt is worlds most severe too?anybody knows? i dont.
Click to expand...

The rating agency Fitch said it now has five countries on watch for "macro-prudential stress", up from two last year, using a set of indicators. A mixed bag, they comprise Iceland, Azerbaijan, South Africa, Russia and, surprisingly, Ireland, where the ratio of private credit to GDP has reached 190pc, the world's highest. The denouement for Ireland may not be pretty, since it gave up control of monetary policy when it joined the euro.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2006/09/12/cctrade12.xml
 
Savvy said:
David Lereah, the Realtors' chief economist, said the drop in prices had been expected, indicating that sellers are finally starting to lower their asking prices in the face of weaker sales and soaring inventories.
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Anyone who keeps an eye on the U.S. bubble blogs will recognise that name. I've often seen references to this guy Lereah as 'Liareah' etc. If you're wondering why.. compare his statement above about expected falling prices with the title of the book he has been flogging since 2005:

"Are You Missing the Real Estate Boom?: The Boom Will Not Bust and Why Property Values Will Continue to Climb Through the End of the Decade - And How to Profit From Them".

Any bulls who want a copy visit amazon :)
http://www.amazon.com/Are-Missing-Real-Estate-Boom/dp/0385514344/sr=1-2/qid=1159197738/ref=pd_bbs_2/002-2527461-4734409?ie=UTF8&s=books

Altho be warned that the US property bears are dancing all over that books grave on the reviews I believe..

PS I wonder who the Irish equivalent is.. :)
 
If property prices start to go down do you think we are going to have the media report A or B?

A) Property prices down 1% in October.

B) October Prices up 13% year on year!
 
For those who keep quoting the "Debt is 190% of GDP":
Don't forget that GDP is artificially high in Ireland due to low tax rates.
The Debt to GNP ratio would be a far more interesting figure...
 
Superman said:
For those who keep quoting the "Debt is 190% of GDP":
Don't forget that GDP is artificially high in Ireland due to low tax rates.
The Debt to GNP ratio would be a far more interesting figure...
Click to expand...
That figure is too scary even for us bears!!
 
Sidewinder said:
Not to mention about 5 years worth of supply lying around empty!
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anybody knows property sales per yr in ireland?
back of the envelop calculations, could be way off

800 mortgages are being approved in ireland per day, thats almost 200k a year, 13% are morgage swithcing, source rte.ie, so 175k are buyers..
lets say half of them actually buy, 88k?(could be more)

so 88*5=440k houses are empty?
 
zac said:
anybody knows property sales per yr in ireland?
back of the envelop calculations, could be way off

800 mortgages are being approved in ireland per day, thats almost 200k a year, 13% are morgage swithcing, source rte.ie, so 175k are buyers..
lets say half of them actually buy, 88k?(could be more)

so 88*5=440k houses are empty?
Click to expand...


I think the general rule is that 15-20% of houses in the country are empty (I know I've read '1 in 5' somewhere a couple of times)
 
zac said:
anybody knows property sales per yr in ireland?
back of the envelop calculations, could be way off

800 mortgages are being approved in ireland per day, thats almost 200k a year, 13% are morgage swithcing, source rte.ie, so 175k are buyers..
lets say half of them actually buy, 88k?(could be more)

so 88*5=440k houses are empty?
Click to expand...

does the 800 a day include re-mortaging/equity extraction and the like? Or is that what you mean by "Mortgage switching"?
 
zac said:
thanks, would u mind sharing your source?
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Source was the post on AAM (don’t know how to link to other posts) stating that "Debt is 190% of GDP"
If that is the worst in the world and since it is a ratio then dividing both sides of the ratio by the population will keep the same ratio so that too must be the worst in the world.
 
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